GM.

I'm bullish on bitcoin, and I think a lot of people overthink it.

One of my favorite metrics is the market value vs realized value ratio. The realized value is basically just the on-chain cost basis. The value of UTXOs at the dollar price during which they last moved between wallets, which often means the time people pulled them from exchanges or deposited them to exchanges.

https://m.primal.net/LXov.png

A relatively small amount of marginal buying can push up the market value by a lot. Like how if you buy one house on a street, it can boost the estimated price of all houses on that street even though only one of them traded hands. But when market value becomes stretched relative to cost basis, it means that part of the market value is kind of illusory. We don't *really* know what houses on that street are worth if only one of them traded hands recently and thus liquidity was low. Over time, as more houses on that street trade hands and we have more price points, the estimated value of the street becomes more real. The same thing for bitcoin; as more bitcoin trades hands at certain levels, it starts to make that level "real" compared to how real we should consider it when it just touches a certain level for a little while with limited volume.

Right now, bitcoin is at an all-time high in its realized price, i.e. cost basis.

Back when bitcoin was poking over $60k in April 2021, the cost basis for the network was only about $350 billion. Now, at the same market price, the cost basis approaches $650 billion, or more than twice as high. The marginal bitcoin has traded hands and moved between wallets at much higher prices than years ago, even though the market price is about the same. In other words, these levels have been truly liquid and been consummated by the market more than they were back in 2021, and thus the price is more robust at this level than back then.

The launch of the spot ETFs pulled forward some excitement this year, and so we've been in this big consolidation since March. But even in that time period from March to the present, the on-chain cost basis increased from like $520 billion to $640 billion, and so price discovery and progress is being made despite the ongoing price chop.

As the network builds a bigger and more solid base like it has been doing, it can set the stage for the next major breakout. The network looks healthy to me.

https://m.primal.net/LXpf.png


We don't *really* know what houses on that street are worth if only one of them traded hands recently and thus liquidity was low.


Most bullish stat I've seen


:blobyes:


The LOTR meme really took this note to the next level.


Lyn! Just finished your book. Incredible work 👏 - sharing it 💯


GM🌞


:catclap:


:orange-heart:


Please, take this.


Onward 🫡


I believe the price of Bitcoin has always been the same: 1 BTC


Gm


@slavery debt system from child labor up to retirement in social contract system unlike soul contract even SMART contract in existing agreement no benefit for labor regardless unless robot worker from wage up to saving account especially in colonial account is systemic issues that need exit strategy like decentralized system and technical issues is financial education not financial advice like unequal pay slogan because first not only transaction but also settlement of payment system and second even financial expert including rating agency bias with four variable even in payment which is price cost value and worth including in mathematical calculation of risk and return. https://t.me/c/1819883896/4871


Thanks for sharing your insight and explaining this in plain english. I appreciate all of your contributions 🙏✨


Great work nostr:npub1a2cww4kn9wqte4ry70vyfwqyqvpswksna27rtxd8vty6c74era8sdcw83a
Thank you for sharing


Lynn likes the corn. I like Lynn


Generational Wealth. You are Welcome 🫡


Thanks for sharing.

Where is this chart from? Is it updated regularly?


Really like MVRV.  True Market Value is interesting as well in that it reduces the impact of 1,000,000 BTC at zero value (Satoshi’s stash) and other piles similar to that due to the duration held.  Checkonchain.com has a bunch of charts like this.  https://charts.checkonchain.com/btconchain/unrealised/mvrv_aviv_1/mvrv_aviv_1_light.html


Nice post! 😁


My thoughts exactly!


:sadyes:


Zappy Zap ✌🏻


I agree, but would add that this metric is skewed by UTXO consolidations, regular payments, LN peg ins, etc.


Great explanation, thank you


GM! ☕ ☀ 🫂 JIT 😂


For anyone looking here's a FOSS version of pretty much the same chart updated every single block (with the price instead of the market cap):

https://kibo.money/date-to-market-price-to-realized-price-ratio?from=2016-03-24&to=2026-04-03


Matcha on me 🍵


The true market mean and the whole cointime economics research by  nostr:npub1qh5sal68c8swet6ut0w5evjmj6vnw29x3k967h7atn45unzjyeyq6ceh9r is really interesting


Onward 🫡


And probably will be more skewed as USD exchange rate goes up?


We are early. Keep #stackingsats


Forex is a complicated mess. The epicenter of fiat madness in a way. I can't speak to that. I would assume that inflation in general would have an impact here as well, but that's true for the bitcoin price in general. I mean imagine trying to calculate an inflation adjusted bitcoin price lol. Doesn't make sense because the bitcoin price is an expression of fiat inflation. Just my 2 sats


Regardless of what you think of him, Larry Fink's conversion is one of the top stories of this cycle. And its bigger than the ETF - he is pitching hard money to anyone who will listen. It's a remarkable evolution.


Respect! 🫡


very wyckoff-ian observation, re. trade volume over a time period  for a given price level.


Great post 👍


nostr:nprofile1qqsw4v882mfjhq9u63j08kzyhqzqxqc8tgf740p4nxnk9jdv02u37ncpz4mhxue69uhhyetvv9uju6mpd4czuumfw3jsz9nhwden5te0wfjkccte9ec8y6tdv9kzumn9wsq3yamnwvaz7tmsw4e8qmr9wpskwtn9wvql3tqm could probably figure out the "realized cost basis" for Harry Potter and conclude he must be real.


GM.

I'm bullish on bitcoin, and I think a lot of people overthink it.

One of my favorite metrics is the market value vs realized value ratio. The realized value is basically just the on-chain cost basis. The value of UTXOs at the dollar price during which they last moved between wallets, which often means the time people pulled them from exchanges or deposited them to exchanges.

https://m.primal.net/LXov.png

A relatively small amount of marginal buying can push up the market value by a lot. Like how if you buy one house on a street, it can boost the estimated price of all houses on that street even though only one of them traded hands. But when market value becomes stretched relative to cost basis, it means that part of the market value is kind of illusory. We don't *really* know what houses on that street are worth if only one of them traded hands recently and thus liquidity was low. Over time, as more houses on that street trade hands and we have more price points, the estimated value of the street becomes more real. The same thing for bitcoin; as more bitcoin trades hands at certain levels, it starts to make that level "real" compared to how real we should consider it when it just touches a certain level for a little while with limited volume.

Right now, bitcoin is at an all-time high in its realized price, i.e. cost basis.

Back when bitcoin was poking over $60k in April 2021, the cost basis for the network was only about $350 billion. Now, at the same market price, the cost basis approaches $650 billion, or more than twice as high. The marginal bitcoin has traded hands and moved between wallets at much higher prices than years ago, even though the market price is about the same. In other words, these levels have been truly liquid and been consummated by the market more than they were back in 2021, and thus the price is more robust at this level than back then.

The launch of the spot ETFs pulled forward some excitement this year, and so we've been in this big consolidation since March. But even in that time period from March to the present, the on-chain cost basis increased from like $520 billion to $640 billion, and so price discovery and progress is being made despite the ongoing price chop.

As the network builds a bigger and more solid base like it has been doing, it can set the stage for the next major breakout. The network looks healthy to me.

https://m.primal.net/LXpf.png


Let's go 🚀


It's one of the most helpful charts. Only took me 3 days and 47 braincycles to understand it. I'm not that smart...but relentless perseverance pays.


Be the change 🫡


Great insight. Thanks for sharing. Checkmate is often all over this metric, which is one of the reasons I like his content as well (and am a paying subscriber)

Chopsolidation is very healthy... If a bit boring! The key: staying focused on the strategy, and not getting distracted by shiny objects along the way


The post is good, the Gandalf is best.


explains why Monero does such a great job staying at $150 US per coin on average. The market has just decided over time that Monero is worth that much and is still sticking with that.


also skewed more as the ETFs and exchanges grow larger.


Freedom Kin 💪🏼


⚡ LIVE FREE ⚡


he is very real to millions of kids and JK Rawlings bank account.


Gm fam


Good point. Makes total sense


Onward 🫡


If that's your goal you win.