Oddbean

I'd pay four figures for a significant bitcoin settlement transaction if that was the market price. That's a high price because it starts to become HNW and institutional only even in the developed world. Nothing necessarily stops it from getting that high but the downward pressure at that point would be tremendous because there would be so many alternatives that are reasonably secure, but also faster and more private and more programmable, but for 1/100th or 1/1000th the cost as being on the main chain. To put it into perspective, if in the future there is higher adoption and just ten million entities in the world (let's say 10% of businesses and HNW people) want to do an on-chain bitcoin transaction on behalf of themselves or their customers per week, they can't. There's not enough blockspace for that. Even they have to use on-chain transactions less frequently, make use of large Lightning channels, make use of other L2s, or make use of whatever soft fork methods exist at that time.

At that fee rate, your net worth would also scale with the Bitcoin price implied by it though. So you may be willing to pay even more than four figures. I'm just trying to point out the arbitraryness of what a reasonable fee is, divorced from pure mechanism. It's also great to see your openess to L2's and soft forks in favor of solutions, beware the Toxic priests that excomunicae people who start looking for solutions outside of LN. You even mentioning big blocks somewhere a few days ago has you on their list.