Oddbean

Australia transitioned away from defined benefit schemes in the eighties and early nineties, and has increased retirement age (not a legal concept here, but when you can access a pension or your benefits) has been increasing too, from 55 when I was young to 67 currently. I'm not a huge fan of the resulting system in its details, but it's a sign that people and politicians used to care about longer-term thinking. (Interestingly, these reforms were from the Left, not Right, which maybe explains why they happened?).

Australia has 2 schemes. The aged pension & superannuation. The pension is a welfare payment calculated based on your income & assets one you hit 67. Superannuation is different in that it is your money held in trust until you reach preservation age (60 for most Australians). Each Australian employee is forced to pay 11% of their gross income into a superannuation fund. The trouble with superannuation funds is that they are subject to the same aging demographic problem. Most funds invest in equities, CRE & bonds. As our population ages and consumes from these funds, the investments don't benefit from the forced saving as much. It becomes another ponzi only it's felt in declining superannuation "yields". The saving grace in our system is that you can set up your own superannuation trust/fund & manage the investing yourself. My self managed fund is very heavily invested in Bitcoin which has performed quite well over the last 4 years. Currently none of the managed funds offer exposure to Bitcoin.

The fundamental difference is between defined benefit (pension scheme) and defined contribution (super). The latter *is* thought of as an entitlement, but the separate accounting makes that closer to the truth? Ofc, poor overall economic performance will hurt super (in Australia, this means if property prices ever go down, we're screwed). I suspect the govt will raid the outliers during some crisis ("who needs $10m of super?" they will cry) probably using exit taxation. This political risk from here to my retirement is significant, which is why I've never topped up mine.

Agreed. I've never contributed more than I was compelled to because of this. I was so disillusioned by the whole scheme that I set up a SMSF and dumped it into Bitcoin before I'd built up much conviction in Bitcoin. The biggest drawcard for me was being able to custody the asset. With hindsight, it worked out well for me. They're already seeking to tax unrealised gains on superannuation balanced over $3m AUD (Division 296). That $3m figure is not even indexed to CPI, so you can imagine how many will be effected by it over the years.

In Italy we have a pretty communism forced contribution, and its because we, men of culture, are mostly criminal here. I will never give a fucking cent of my work to this ponzi scheme. Bitcoin fixes this, but more people adopting bitcoin and contribution-evasion will make more likely the scenario you are expecting, so hope for their good that people stop acting retarded and stop financing the state with this other form of taxation basically.