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38d2865b | 1 years ago (raw) | root | parent | reply | flag 
 @0c1a9324 Though the magnitude of the win (two to one) looks like more than a simple swing. That looks like a hole below the waterline.
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Charlie Stross | 1 years ago (raw) | root | parent | reply | flag 
 @27521c42 Much of which can probably be blamed on a combination of the SNP currently being in hiccup mode (they just lost a very talented leader, and her successor isn't very charismatic or experienced) *and* local protest against an MP who totally screwed the pooch.

At the next general election I expect the SNP to do significantly worse than in 2019 ... but at the 2026 Scottish election I expect a significant recovery, or at least a hold.
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38d2865b | 1 years ago (raw) | root | parent | reply | flag 
 @0c1a9324 Would you rule out Labour or a unionist coalition taking power in Holyrood in 2026?
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Charlie Stross | 1 years ago (raw) | root | parent | reply | flag 
 @27521c42 No, I wouldn't rule it out. But it’s not going to happen on the strength of a single by-election swing.