Oddbean new post about | logout
 I’ve paid plenty of trading “tuition”, unfortunately. I have mid-level technical chart analysis experience after about 5 years. But I’ve come full circle that literally >99% of people will not successfully and consistently time markets over long time frames so I stopped trying and stack sats instead.

Naïveté in a trading context is preferable in my hindsight. I wish I never wasted that tuition money. 
 

https://m.primal.net/KOPW.gif
 
 Odds are you will conclude the same if you’re honest with yourself. If you continue to trade, I highly doubt you will beat the S&P at least 6 of the next 10 years. I highly doubt you will outperform BTC 4 of the next 10. Great for you if I’m wrong. 
 90% +  Bitcoin long exposure. I also use options to generate income. no gambling or guess directionality/timing. simply using traditional financial markets to take advantage of mis pricings in Bitcoin derivative markets while I still can. eight years strong, slowly starting to narrow as institutions are starting to catch on. 

I've never once tried to trade a chart. never will.  
 Nice, I hope you can beat the odds.

I found my intuition about charts and simple horizontal support/resistance was often right but I struggled with execution or patience. 
 calendars? selling options/buying?