Even if you're right, holding a short position is very expensive. It's all about timing. also, there are not a lot of vehicles to short depending on which jurisdiction you live in, especially for retail investors. simply telling somebody to short Bitcoin because of their thesis is showing your naivete and lack of trading experience  

 I’ve paid plenty of trading “tuition”, unfortunately. I have mid-level technical chart analysis experience after about 5 years. But I’ve come full circle that literally >99% of people will not successfully and consistently time markets over long time frames so I stopped trying and stack sats instead.

Naïveté in a trading context is preferable in my hindsight. I wish I never wasted that tuition money. 

 

https://m.primal.net/KOPW.gif
 

 Odds are you will conclude the same if you’re honest with yourself. If you continue to trade, I highly doubt you will beat the S&P at least 6 of the next 10 years. I highly doubt you will outperform BTC 4 of the next 10. Great for you if I’m wrong. 

 90% +  Bitcoin long exposure. I also use options to generate income. no gambling or guess directionality/timing. simply using traditional financial markets to take advantage of mis pricings in Bitcoin derivative markets while I still can. eight years strong, slowly starting to narrow as institutions are starting to catch on. 

I've never once tried to trade a chart. never will.  

 Nice, I hope you can beat the odds.

I found my intuition about charts and simple horizontal support/resistance was often right but I struggled with execution or patience. 

 calendars? selling options/buying? 

 It's high beta thinking it serves two purpose.  One They sell at the high/current price then drive the market down as far as they can and then cover.  This can be done by insiders and those that know how to watch said insiders or get on their mailing list so you too are one of them.

Two they then tell no coiners to stay out of the game because they fear volatility.