Oddbean

Avoiding posting on Twitter at the moment. I’m just watching there. There’s enough overnight-expert Middle East hot takes and emotions are running high. The violence and scenes are terrible, and my heart goes out to all victims involved and those who will be caught up in it going forward. I’ll instead post a few things in my lane here as it relates to global finance and todays actions relating to things I’ve already been covering but that now obviously have updates. Helps me get my thoughts together for what will eventually be my next client report. -Actions like this show the difficulty of multinational currency agreements. Saudi Arabia and Iran have been having more peaceful relations lately as China brought them together (“enemy of my enemy is my pragmatic financial friend”, and so forth). They are both set to join BRICS+ in January 2024. -But, Saudi Arabia has also been working with the US and Israel on normalizing relations with Israel, in exchange for US arms deals and such. Saudi Arabia was also making promises to raise oil output to alleviate oil prices if they grow too quickly, which the US wants. -So this attack (w/ Iranian involvement and public support) puts Saudi Arabia in a weird place. Lots of division and competing goals within BRICS+. Has all sorts of implications for Saudi/Israeli relations, Saudi/US relations, and what happens in the coming weeks will affect how those go. -Egypt and Ethiopia are also joining BRICS+ in January 2024 and they have had a multi year ongoing feud regarding the Grand Renaissance dam on the Nile. -China and India are well known as not being on good terms. Border disputes and all that. -Building trade and currency and military agreements between so many different cultures is a bigger challenge than doing so between US and West Europe.

Thanks for the summary. Sometimes I can lose track of all the seemingly contradictory incentives with so many moving pieces. From a historical BRICS and the new additions seem like an impossibility. With current events I wonder if it will even be possible for them to work together... Tick tock, next block 🧘

Long ago lost count of how many times we’ve been lied to and manipulated by things just like this. Things & situations which often turn out to be not at all what they said they were. So never let the mass media, their pundits, and their 77th shill division grab you by the emotions. Fun Fact: they’ve been boldfaced lying to us about the situation with Israel and the Middle East for well over 50 years. I’ll also never forget the dancing that hap on 9/11.

this analysis reminds me of the videos Darya Dugina used to do - about how Turkey affects the balance of power in Middle East and so on ... and then she was killed with a car bomb. // end random thought

The premise of the Samson Option is an armistice agreement between the US and Israel, That if Israel is hit with a nuke, That every major city will also be hit. It is to prevent nuclear escalation between the US and Russia. Not sure if you know the history of Russian Jews or not but Stalin killed many Jewish people as well, And the Jews were also a subclass in the Pale of Settlement in modern day Ukraine/Russia, And were outcast by the Russian Aristocratic society. Israel has the largest foreign settlement of Russian people and they sit at an important inflection point between the two nuclear super powers. Israel is literally the most powerful place in the world and is the glue that keeps east and west together. Without Israel nuclear holocaust is just a few orders away. But you can hate Jews, nobody is judging you for that. Go ahead.

Because, It is an agreement with the major nuclear superpowers. The United States not only has the largest military, But built the military for pretty much all the other powerful countries, Including the wealthiest being Saudi Arabia. China and Russia are basically on their own, And Russia is politically beholden to the State of Israel. The people who would hunt the Jews are their allies. The protection of the state of Israel ensures the protection of all their allies. The arms that would be used to attack the other countries are controlled by the United States. The US has the most nuclear armament on call 24/7/365, In every corner of the world, And that’s not changing. You want to point the finger at Jewish people but you have no clue about the geopolitical ramifications of the State of Israel existing. Without Israel there is no Europe. Just communist China and west Russia. Do you have any idea how poor most of Russia and the previous soviet states are? Have you visited Berlin? Do you even know where Israel is on a map?

The state of Israel was founded by the Rothschild family. Hitler was funded and empowered by western countries, The United States had many corporate partnerships with the NAZI party, As well as the USSR, But especially the British wanted Hitler to stop the Bolshevik revolution from spreading west. The Jews were the poor people stuck in the middle, Taking the blame because the Rothschild banking dynasty was the most powerful in the world at the time. The Soviet Forces defeated Hitler, Not the Jews. The Soviet army Liberated Auschwitz, Destroyed Berlin, And killed Hitler. Jews were killed en mass both in Soviet Gulags, And German concentration camps, But were systematically and divisibly blamed for poverty in Germany and killed specifically to establish an anti-Semitic sentiment in the German people. The real cause for Hitlers defeat was Pervatin or speed. Hitler was too high to think straight, Let alone fight a war on all sides. Had Hitler kept his cool against the Soviet Army the Allies would have fought alongside the Germans. Hitler got trigger happy. After the establishment of the state of Israel, The Nuremberg trials, And the execution of the most notorious NAZI criminals, The state of Israel became entwined in European politics. The BIS (Bank of International Settlements) was funded by the NAZI gold looted from Europe. Paul Volker made this allocation to curb inflation and to restructure the Eurozone. The State of Israel is the longest arm of the Rothschild banking dynasty. No other family has done as much for their people as the Rothschilds have. Mossad, The CIA, And MI6 all work together on European security, And the Royal Families have positive relationships with the Rothschild family. Western European economics were and are based on the financial networks created by the Rothschild family. The United States provides military protection for Europe in the form of NATO and all western countries recognize firsthand the brutality of Russia. If you have never been to Europe (as it seems you have not) Europeans don’t want to suffer another continent wide conflict. There will absolutely be an establishment of the state of Israel, I would say this current conflict will hasten the annexation of the Gaza Strip. If you are not pro Israel you are ignorant to European geopolitics.

There's so much talk about BRICS+ and yet they've got some serious challenges if they're going to inspire confidence as a viable alternative to US dominance & USD. Let's just decentralize all the things.

"The violence and scenes are terrible, and my heart goes out to all victims involved and those who will be caught up in it going forward." Yes this happens everyday against Palestinians. Whats different and special now?

More often sticks and stones vs. One of the most advanced military machines. It’s a horrible situation. In the circles Lyn is in, it pays to be a pragmatist. The USA seems like a difficult place to navigate.

Whataboutism doesn't take away from the horror we saw yesterday. The barbarity of the attack was atrocious, but worse still is that we absolutely know the retaliation is going to be a thousand fold more deadly. There needs to be an end, not constant justifications.

100s of jews died so like 6000000 americans according the msnbc nostr:nevent1qqstge26gvmgzcl4nyd0fqccpkxrfq2799uh5jj7rty8ryklp22ua4qpz3mhxue69uhhyetvv9ujuerpd46hxtnfdupzputlnahl3ca9a72mh5sftpnckqscmujay5arfp0h2mv82hnzpr4dqvzqqqqqqy6wfwnc

I think (as many said) we are in a power shift from a single centralized force running the world to multiple centralized forces running it. And this translates into a fight over hegemony where previously there was no question about who is the hegemony and hence less need to fight. The new fight percolates through our world. Perhaps if somehow the power shift was from centralized power ruling into decentralized power world control structure, things could truly be different. My hope and deep reason for bitcoin is that it can bring such a change in the world control structure. A distributed control structure that naturally gravitates toward benefitting all the "simple" people without the need to rely on centralized powers to protect us by fighting a never ending zero some game that brings waves of cruelty and misery. I truly whish, hope and pray we can get there. The alternative is unbearable.

I wish you would read those books I read. You would see that Saudi Arabia and Israel were never enemies. They worked many times together behind the scenes of the history... The recent Palestinian "attack" is just a (old) psyop. You will see it in the numbers. You need an enemy attack to retaliate...

Your insights on the complex web of international relations and finance are always enlightening. As tensions escalate, the financial markets and geopolitical landscape will be in a state of flux, and your analysis will be invaluable for understanding these shifts. Looking forward to your next client report.

I couldn't agree more with your insights. It's impressive how you consistently distill complex issues into understandable terms 🙏, making it easier to clearly organize and grasp my own thoughts on the subject by removing the extra noise that’s often times hard to sift through.

@Centralization Scam US and West lead an old existing centralized system whereas BRICS lead a new centralized system. That is why Bitcoin is solution not stock market not bond as Albert Einstein reminds never expected to solve a problem in the state of problem meaning not only intelligence but also consciousness that makes bitcoin is currency of peace acceptance by all sides not only for superpower but also zero power.

Thanks for sharing all of your information during the pacific bitcoin conference! You had the best “Rebellious childhood experience” answer of the whole panel. The only entertaining one. Someday, maybe I’ll be up there along you so I can piggyback my answer with yours 😂

For the BRICS+ countries to leave the dollar in international trade...and eventually pricing oil and other commodities in alternative currencies like #CBDC 's and #Bitcoin... Would this at all be tied to unfolding events of warfare and developing US relations?