After the first halving, the price shrank to 10% of the high, or 90%. Subsequent halving's had the price shrink to 20% then 15%, then 20% from that cycle's highs. 

My most conservative estimate is 15% down from this cycle high of 150k, at 22,500$. Others have suggested 40K or 50K bottom in the next bear cycle. 

I'll probably be wrong. With the ETFs and the halving pumping the price to ridiculous levels, really a historic event for boitcoin. Either way it will be interesting. 

This is a solid analysis by Rajat
nostr:note15lk0fce5skttqt5279s8nwusp7yula0grw80ffkn4ah7r728vj7svjmnq6

note15lk0fce5skttqt5279s8nwusp7yula0grw80ffkn4ah7r728vj7svjmnq6 

 do you think he's "the Bitcoin guy" as his bio suggests? 

 he's a bit scammy tbh 

 that was my gut reaction to his profile. probs has some good insights too tho 

 Yeah, too bullish though.  

 wait, ur a bear? 

 there's a spectrum of bullishness and I'm on it.  

 I triy to follow my intuition, and my intuition tells me to wait until the next bear market.  

 if you aren't mostly deployed now I'd have questions about your bear market activities.

I too am already thinking about the next bear  

 yes, I was fully deployed around 20 to 30k..