When we hit 2021's all-time high, #Bitcoin    was a completely different asset than it is today.

In 2021, Bitcoin reached a blow-off top at $69,000 because of FOMO from retail investors.

This probably wouldn't have happened if we didn't have lockdowns.

Retail investors had money to throw around and made the smart decision to buy Bitcoin.

Some of these people studied what Bitcoin was and held through the longest bear market in Bitcoin's history from 2021-2022.

I'm pretty sure most institutional investors (smart money) weren't buying #Bitcoin    last time it was $60k+.

THIS TIME:

Someone has been buying 100 BTC 15-20x per day since the bottom in 2022.

This is no ordinary retail investor.

There are 10 Bitcoin ETFs.

Pension funds around the world are looking into this.

Nation-states have been accumulating.

Bitcoin reached a new all-time high OVER A MONTH before the halving.

THIS HAS NEVER HAPPENED BEFORE.

Smart money is accumulating Bitcoin.

Dumb money is dismissing Bitcoin.

Most retail investors STILL have no clue that Blackrock is offering a Bitcoin ETF.

This time is different. 

 After the first halving, the price shrank to 10% of the high, or 90%. Subsequent halving's had the price shrink to 20% then 15%, then 20% from that cycle's highs. 

My most conservative estimate is 15% down from this cycle high of 150k, at 22,500$. Others have suggested 40K or 50K bottom in the next bear cycle. 

I'll probably be wrong. With the ETFs and the halving pumping the price to ridiculous levels, really a historic event for boitcoin. Either way it will be interesting. 

This is a solid analysis by Rajat
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