Oddbean new post about | logout
 I hate to break it to you but the markets have not decided anything. Bitcoin has only been viable for 10 years and a lot can happen in 10 years. Many first mover companies like Altavista, MySpace, Yahoo Mail, Vines, Sony Walkman, etc all had "unstoppable" first mover advantages. All are gone now, replaced by successors that saw the flaws in the market leader and fixed them. Gold, Silver, and cigarettes in prison have been market proven. Bitcoin? Let's talk again in 30 years. What I am confident is that Lightning is not the answer for Bitcoin. It's inherently centralizing and works best when custodial. In other words, it's a more fragile and complicated version of Paypal. IMO, other non-custodial payment solutions are possible but Bitcoiner have gotten so complacent that it's likely that other crypto will adopt those solutions before Bitcoin falls behind. In this, Bitcoin is no different than previous technologies with the first mover advantage. Will Bitcoin suffer the same fate? I don't know but complacency that "Bitcoin has already won" is a sure sign that it will fall behind. If you want Bitcoin to succeed and stay successful, you have to adopt the "#Bitcoin is always under threat" attitude so it will always find ways around those threats. That is one advantage #Monero has. It wants to be challenged and flaws exposed so they can be fixed.
 
 Did I mention anything here projecting 30 years into the future?

Maybe I should have mentioned the period I feel confident about getting right: 2-3-4 years, and maybe a bit longer.

I'm sure that Monero will do well as a project, and I'd support it directly if I had the means, and also it will remain a major driver for privacy.

But as a store of value it will take a breather. My plan since ~2021 has been to hold a decent percentage in Monero, and to then load up on more during and after the bull market, expecting the real, free markets to keep it propped up almost as a stablecoin.

What I have changed is my priorities in terms of remaining financially solvent, and also what market I'll focus on for earning what I need to eat, that is all! 
 I totally agree on this part, and its also something I watch continuously:

" f you want Bitcoin to succeed and stay successful, you have to adopt the "#Bitcoin is always under threat" attitude so it will always find ways around those threats. That is one advantage #Monero has. It wants to be challenged and flaws exposed so they can be fixed."

Also I'll load up on some gold once Bitcoin peaks against it into 2025, but that is kinda complicated since I'm not even sure where on the globe I'll be by then! :-)