Oddbean

I'm sorry #Monero, but the markets have decided. In monetary terms #Bitcoin will take it all, that is pretty much a given by now. We're in a fight for freedom and even sanity where Monero still is extremely important, so I'll certainly still support the project! Development and adoption, however, belongs to Lightning... The services available now are impressive, and in practical terms privacy has become easy. What I totally WILL watch closely in the years to come is any signs of exchanging between Bitcoin and Monero getting close to impossible, but what I think is that Lightning will be a driver for this too: we'll be in an open rebellion where someone will always set up a gateway between the two! So today I'll keep exchanging what I have left before the next surge of Bitcoin, especially since I just tried this excellent service with Lightning: https://ff.io/ Will I keep some? Probably, maybe worth 100-200 bucks for domains, and emergencies... Will I buy in again later? Maybe, all depending on how markets develop! And that is the thing: although Monero took over the free markets online I think that from now on Lightning will take marketshares back.

Lol https://image.nostr.build/b11eb621cd38311686bfce8e2448d981c5b23972abb7b6977a81b2b633ced9fa.png https://image.nostr.build/ff71d0aec3a490d1890a229d83873d67f5dec079cffee3f17e047b8d0f5fa7ae.png https://image.nostr.build/0fdb01da9f4e18f99cc7918ffc2c474d75823aea23e67ffe20ffdb5aed68c3e4.png https://image.nostr.build/a95c3424a9bd4492a908c892279f4554380ea1e2e3d392087591c681ec58131e.jpg

I hate to break it to you but the markets have not decided anything. Bitcoin has only been viable for 10 years and a lot can happen in 10 years. Many first mover companies like Altavista, MySpace, Yahoo Mail, Vines, Sony Walkman, etc all had "unstoppable" first mover advantages. All are gone now, replaced by successors that saw the flaws in the market leader and fixed them. Gold, Silver, and cigarettes in prison have been market proven. Bitcoin? Let's talk again in 30 years. What I am confident is that Lightning is not the answer for Bitcoin. It's inherently centralizing and works best when custodial. In other words, it's a more fragile and complicated version of Paypal. IMO, other non-custodial payment solutions are possible but Bitcoiner have gotten so complacent that it's likely that other crypto will adopt those solutions before Bitcoin falls behind. In this, Bitcoin is no different than previous technologies with the first mover advantage. Will Bitcoin suffer the same fate? I don't know but complacency that "Bitcoin has already won" is a sure sign that it will fall behind. If you want Bitcoin to succeed and stay successful, you have to adopt the "#Bitcoin is always under threat" attitude so it will always find ways around those threats. That is one advantage #Monero has. It wants to be challenged and flaws exposed so they can be fixed.

Did I mention anything here projecting 30 years into the future? Maybe I should have mentioned the period I feel confident about getting right: 2-3-4 years, and maybe a bit longer. I'm sure that Monero will do well as a project, and I'd support it directly if I had the means, and also it will remain a major driver for privacy. But as a store of value it will take a breather. My plan since ~2021 has been to hold a decent percentage in Monero, and to then load up on more during and after the bull market, expecting the real, free markets to keep it propped up almost as a stablecoin. What I have changed is my priorities in terms of remaining financially solvent, and also what market I'll focus on for earning what I need to eat, that is all!

I totally agree on this part, and its also something I watch continuously: " f you want Bitcoin to succeed and stay successful, you have to adopt the "#Bitcoin is always under threat" attitude so it will always find ways around those threats. That is one advantage #Monero has. It wants to be challenged and flaws exposed so they can be fixed." Also I'll load up on some gold once Bitcoin peaks against it into 2025, but that is kinda complicated since I'm not even sure where on the globe I'll be by then! :-)

You used a centralised exchange not knowing about decentralised ways to trade Monero for Bitcoin? Trading between Bitcoin and Monero has never been more liquid in a permissionless, trustless and private way. And it's only getting better. Thanks to the delisting of CEX.

Of course! Once I've decided on what I wrote about why would I spend a day on doing it that way? A Rebel Nomad has to be practical, and the huge wave of adoption that is incoming will consist of ordinary users doing exactly the sort of thing I did today. If you're building 100% in privacy I totally understand & respect that, and I did this until recently. Now, for me, its time to simply buidl in open defiance, and then time is scarce every day...

the role of monero is different than bitcoin's. it is not to be the leader is monetary value, it is a solution that bitcoin does not provide. it is not about monero versus bitcoin. it is about us coming together for human freedom and dignity. why all this nonsensical childish fighting when we can stand together ?

Never said that Monero is NOT the one currency for the real, free economy, what I did say is that Lighting will make inroads there from now on! I'm getting soooo tired of weighting all these echo chambers that I'll probably do an episode on that soon... Its all tools in the same fight for freedom & sanity!