Oddbean

There's no such thing as a throwaway vote but he doesn't have a shot. Vote for who you believe is the most qualified based on whatever reasons you set. However, this isn't the year we end the two party system. Either the Democrat or Republican nominee will be the next president. A large nunber of voters will be voting based solely on the letter following their name. That will not change in 2024.

> However, this isn't the year we end the two party system. I have a bad feeling this will be the excuse every election cycle… A massive popular vote number for a 3rd party/independent would send a loud signal to get the ball rolling, no?

It's been an excuse for several election cycles. And it's a valid one. Unfortunately, Bitcoin isn't an issue that will create a massive popular vote for a 3rd party/independent. Is the system rigged? Absolutely. Will RFK be able to overcome it? No.

I understand entirely and I've been in your boat. I left the GOP shortly after 9/11, or rather, their response. The Patriot Act was too much. I quickly got involved with the Libertarian party and started working for candidates there, trying to move the needle. However, most weren't serious and it was more about visiting the library once a month to complain about government among one another. Not real change. I've since moved back to the GOP (with Ron Paul's race in '08) because there's more I can work with here. Since that time, I've talked to 1000s of voters, all across the nation. One of the most common responses, when asking if they'd support this person or that is, "Are they a Republican/Democrat?" That's the number one question asked about any candidate. Roughly 80% of the electorate has their mind already made up. They'll be voting either R or D. 20% are real independents. They'll move to the candidate that they believe will do the most for their wallet and increase stability. Can this change? Sure. But you'll need to do a lot more work to convince others that there is a viable and better candidate. Just voting, or even donating, isn't enough. And, unfortunately, most supporters of a third party or independent usually aren't willing to put in the work to get it done (this is true among everyone really, but it harms third parties and independents more because they don't have the bases already built.)

Polls don't mean a lot but it's often the only measure we have. RFK is currently around 8.7% and has been mostly unchanged since April. Perot hit 19%, which I believe was the best performance from an independent since 1912. RFK's best shot is to somehow wrestle the DNC nomination from Kamala. He does that, and odds change REAL fast.