Oddbean new post about login | logout 6.25 becomes 3.125 I think thats a pretty insanely fucking big deal. A way bigger deal that how many usd peso’s exist in circulation.
In my opinion the effect of halving has been overestimated, the total issuance of bitcoins per year is ridiculous compared to what, for example, is traded in the Bitcoin futures market. It has no quantitative effect, coincidentally the dollar liquidity cycles have coincided with the halving, this is what most overlook.
Futures contracts are a total fraud. They can sell bitcoin that they do not have. They can sell 100B bitcoin if there are enough buyers. So as long as there is enough money that believes in futures ETFs and has access to them, they are in total control of the underlying asset price. No halvings and not anything else matters.
They are not selling bitcoin. They are selling a contract in which the buyer is gaining price exposure. But the two are not the same
No, they are not the same. That is why I am not investing in futures ETFs. But if they attract enough money from others, they still dictate the price for the actual bitcoin for as long as there are fools that own both, actual bitcoin and the futures ETF. And there will always be some of them. There still are people buying used post stamps. The only question is how many.
Perhaps. Could easily see the market determine different prices for an etf contract vs actual bitcoin
Has it ever happened with any other asset futures contracts? Was there ever any futures ETF that was closed down completely due to irrelevance? They will be here until noone is interested. And even then they will probably remain in small circles. Much like Christianity in many places around the world.
I think the only winning strategy in large wars is divide and concur. I did not do a deep research, but superficially looking, it seems the only places that anglosaxons failed to enslave are North Korea and Thailand. Maybe Butan, but I do not know enough. It was also Japan until WWII and Spain till end of F.Franco. These places are not less worth enslaving and not magically stronger than others in any way, but they failed to demoralize and to divide the people. I mostly attribute this to strong religions and strong leaders. Anyway, to take over control of bitcoin price (or liberate as we like to think) from the black hats, the only way is to divide them. Attract them to different financial poles and make a conflict in between. And in full honesty, we want to take over, not just liberate. We think we just want to be left alone, but if that was true, we could get together into an amish like community, and live happily with bitcoin forever. That is not enough. We don't want more powerful fools around us. We can tolerate them if we can disregard them, like some insects or inconvenient plants or animals. But no more.