My base case is just like all other man made monies, #bitcoin will fail at some point, but likely 80-100 years off. We all won’t have to worry about it then. People at that time will have to figure out a new solution or a better means. The internet was also always about to fail due to scaling issues.

#Bitcoin is following a very similar path to gold: > USD > treasuries > Petro dollars… all just L2, L3, & L4 layers on gold.

I say these points, not as a slight, not to instigate, or out of negative intent towards BTC, but from a review and understanding of how money, people, currency, and empires have risen and fallen over long time frames. 

Gold is the only money that has lasted. Land is the only other one (form) but it’s not transactional and is taxable (erosion). Bitcoin could last as long as gold & land, who knows. 

But, it is following the path of man made money because we tend to think in currency rather than wealth terms. As “money” moves from sound to unsound, additional layers are built. Offer a means to satisfy human greed, sometimes for good and sometimes for bad. 

A process as repetitive as the sun rising from the east to the west. Some means succeed longer, some fail faster. In success, the rise of sound and setting of unsound money is less noticeable as it happens over many decades, not 24 hours.

#Bitcoin is proving to be, at minimum, a base layer money. It’s different because it offers a formidable transactional option (on the back of storing value) unlike gold or land. Though much improved, it still has similar limiting flaws on the transactional side. Why? Bc there is a difference btw money and currency that can’t be solved IMO. One is storage of wealth and one is spending of wealth, those two components naturally go in opposite directions.

BTC has entered the phase of putting currency layers on-top of the foundation faster than expected. A fashion sooner, but similar to Bretton Woods, 31 years after the FED. It could also be viewed as a failed solution that happened much earlier in our attempt at wildcat banking.