I'm not so sure. I tend to agree with most of what you say, but there may be an assumed premise I disagree with.

If you're assuming there will ever be another #Twitter of #Facebook, I don't agree with that. In that respect I disagree with Musk too.

From now on I think it's all fractures. Some will use Mastodon,  some #Bluesky,  yet more will use #mewe  or #gab.  

Some will move further off base and use #XMPP  groups or #Matrix  - which now has 60 million users and hundreds of thousands of groups and yet the media is ignoring entirely.

My point is, there will never again be a global town hall and that's because we don't actually need one.

I think #nostr  and #mastodon  will connect for those that want opposing views and stay apart for those that want enclaves.

That's the #future  :)