Oddbean

Growing up in the '90s I remember being told a few things about migration, which was just getting started in large numbers: 1. We only let in as many as we can assimilate and will stop if it gets out of hand. 2. We only let in people whose life is in real danger in their home countries. 3. They will need to adapt to our customs, not the other way around. 4. Second generation migrants are very well integrated, third generation are basically Lutheran liberals. 5. Migrants want to be like us and if they don't it's because we're still a bit racist. This all seemed very reasonable. Voters bought it too, because they kept voting in favor of these policies. Only the truly far right warned that it wouldn't work out that way, but they were literal Nazis (that word used to mean something). Besides, the outcome was anyway future us' problem. But in the '00s, the story slowly began to change. It was no longer about assimilation but multiculturalism, and how great it is. And frankly, this also sounded quite reasonable to me: 1. Diversity is great, just look at the food options. 2. It doesn't matter how or why they came, they are here now. 3. If you don't like their customs you're just being islamophobic. 4. Some migrants are integrating really well, just look at this anecdote. 5. Everyone should be proud of their own culture, except us (lest you're racist) In hindsight, there was some apathy in this change. Less than a conscious shift in narrative, we collectively rationalized what had already come to pass. So while voters showed increased concern, they stuck with the parties and policies that got them there. Then some really bad things started to happen. Murders over caricatures. A wave of terrorist attacks. A dramatic rise in rapes. Regular bombings in peaceful places. Racially motivated grooming. Exploding social expenditures. Gangs and stabbings. But most concerning it became taboo to suggest that any of this had any connection to migrants. And they kept coming in ever larger numbers. Many seeking family reunification, bringing even more. Past us miscalculated. By the '10s, this last fact brought a true racial element to the situation, as the change became so visible on the streets that the echoes of the promises from the '90s seemed to some as a cruel trick. Old conspiracy theories about some great replacement were thus granted subtle credence, making the unreasonable reasonable. Tragically, this trapped large numbers of migrants who worked hard to integrate and build a better life here in a web of general suspicion. Increasing suspicion harmed integration exacerbating issues increasing suspicion. And continuing in the '20s, new migrants kept coming much faster than we could break this vicious cycle, fertilizing the seed of conflict we see budding this summer. So what now? Pray the seed never blooms and go in peace. There is no way to return to the past without a fundamental break with the core of our own culture - rule of law, basic liberties, human rights. And then what would it all be for. Besides, the past had plenty of forgotten flaws. Careful what you wish for. But it also seems unlikely we will be able to move into the future without challenging many of the same values. People are being arrested as you read this for speaking their mind in the UK. Many more are afraid to speak their mind. Perhaps for the best. Because in the end we will have to live together. And remember that the vast majority of us still do so in harmony. So let's not harbor any fantasies about the past, even if we don't know what to do about the future (other than make babies and stack sats). To quote the Bible: "Don't be afraid". There must be love. I don't have any better answers, nor did I write this to offer any. I just wanted to share how I've truly experienced these changes as part of the "native" European generation that grew up with them. I don't know any other world. At best it's valuable context, at worst I hope some can relate. https://m.primal.net/JsJh.jpg

This is pretty much how I see it and I think it’s irreversible. Nation, race, and culture based on those two will work less and less to create trust and cooperation in future. We need to build something new on top of these ruins and it begins with love and honesty.

@Erik Dale This is an exceptionally well written explanation of how a very very slow person comes across to the right. We're here to welcome you when you get here. Take it easy, think through your opinions slowly, and try not to cheese off too many of your old friends as you go through this process.

Good post. I grew up in Sweden in the 1980'ies and saw direct results of the failed politics from the late 1980'ies and onwards. Whatever the future holds, we need a focus on hard money, individual rights, property rights and resistance to government central planning. The core of corruption started in our governments, central banks and the moneyprinting system. The inflationary loop: Politicians buy votes with promises funded by printed money. This causes an inflationary loop - voters will vote for the highest government spending, which also brings maximum inflation. Going forward the pressure should be on critiquing the program code that steers society toward self-destruction. Governments run on policies. Policy is shaped by ideology. I believe that the UN Agenda 21 that was signed 1992 by 179 nations in Rio de Janeiro is a root policy program that is running our governments via ideological beliefs. The deep state is the main opponent to individual liberties.

I would define the deep state as the *persisting* state, the system of roots beneath the visible tree. When a new president or prime minister is inaugered, the root system does not change, it persists across elections. As the deep state expands its powers, individual liberties are necessarily reduced. No single person have the depth of power as a deep state and it is possible that no person controls it - it may run merely on the aggregatw of self-preservation of the individuals it employs

The global south will begin to look like previous generations of the untitled states; not very diverse, strong culture and traditions. The western cultures will start to look like third world countries. The West will essentially have a wealthy class and a peasant class. It will be communism for the peasant class and capitalistic abundance for the wealthy class.

This is a tough one for me. I still cling to the idea that people should have freedom of movement and I think that maybe the reason people came is more the problem than them coming. New York specifically and the US was built on immigration, but IMO the people came not to Leach off some overindulgent nanny state, but to kick ass and work hard to achieve their idea of the American Dream. I think we can be multicultural in the sense of faith, food and traditions, without having to be "multicultural" in terms of public safety. I want more immegrants that know America will not be one big handout, but are willing to show up and bootstrap their American dream. TBH, almost all of the immegrants I know in the US are this way. Mexicans and Central Americans routinely outwork the natural born Americans in my industry (construction). And I'm happy to compete with them. Steel sharpens Steel