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Satoshis Bridge | 1 years ago (raw) | root | parent | reply | flag 
 There are numbers: 5 payments per year and your channel becomes economically reliable. 

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SBW | 1 years ago (raw) | root | parent | reply | flag 
 I assume you mean economically justified to make that channel opening tx. 

Compared to what, then? 

It will lose to zero fee bank payments I have now. 

For my peer, it will lose to lending btc at 2+% return instead of putting them in a channel which does 5 small payments per year. 

What is the probability channel will even live that long and not get force-closed?
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Satoshis Bridge | 1 years ago (raw) | root | parent | reply | flag 
 Compared to onchain fees. That's theoretical numbers derived from papers about payment systems from 1960s. On such timescale LN if compared to legacy payment systems is looking like a frog leaping forward like crazy. 

Force closings are problem indeed and it is worrysome that everybody is busy with something not including FC as KPI. But this is free market activity entirely. So we'll, cest la vie. 

Dashed line is for hosted channels on this plot. Horizontal axis is payment frequency.  Vertical is for economic effect which is difference between onchain and lightning network operational costs. 

https://i.nostrimg.com/601eb8a02cc2382d180748c35fffc76cd0269a24edb5b816e5c78a4ea75df215/file.png
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Satoshis Bridge | 1 years ago (raw) | root | parent | reply | flag 
 It is important that you can't compare lending bitcoins, normally, since bitcoins are the best collateral. Lending will always lead to additional risk but in lightning it appears to be measurable while in other cases it is subject to third-party evaluations or collateral asset depreciation against bitcoins.
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SBW | 1 years ago (raw) | root | parent | reply | flag 
 off the top of my head, in LN you should also account for hardware failure, 0days, fee spikes which will destroy in-flight htlc resolution in broken channels, all of these not very predictable.
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Satoshis Bridge | 1 years ago (raw) | root | parent | reply | flag 
 There are many technical ways to loose bitcoins. All of them are different to custodial and third party risks. You could say that one may use unreliable random nber generator and leak keys without any LN.