Oddbean new post about login | logout Inventories down too, so maybe an excuse for low gdp, maybe another bad signal that they think the future is bleak.
If the recent trend continues, the next one should be negative growth. What's notable about this morning is the analyst miss. Means the trend is accelerating.
In the most recent beige book, manufacturers complained about their clients having large inventories, vendors complained about lower than expected demand or said they reduced inventories. I think this low gdp cannot be discarded because inventories were low. I also expect this trend to continue. A falling stock market might be a self fulfilling prophecy for a recession, given how little confidence people have in the economy. Either way, the market is very overpriced, with little upside and many risk factors. https://image.nostr.build/089faae150c695d2b685a1c30d2f08bcf24aef0ba3c5808ce538d6feaa12fcae.jpg https://image.nostr.build/ca71cb434c098c76ee7036209fecf796a9c15fe62e8af300fb09e682a68f179e.jpg https://image.nostr.build/c38657893109d535753aca657f1a70bcda53d6676cc1a090666133730cd74265.jpg https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/BeigeBook_20240417.pdf
