In the most recent beige book, manufacturers complained about their clients having large inventories, vendors complained about lower than expected demand or said they reduced inventories.
I think this low gdp cannot be discarded because inventories were low. I also expect this trend to continue.
A falling stock market might be a self fulfilling prophecy for a recession, given how little confidence people have in the economy.
Either way, the market is very overpriced, with little upside and many risk factors.
https://image.nostr.build/089faae150c695d2b685a1c30d2f08bcf24aef0ba3c5808ce538d6feaa12fcae.jpg
https://image.nostr.build/ca71cb434c098c76ee7036209fecf796a9c15fe62e8af300fb09e682a68f179e.jpg https://image.nostr.build/c38657893109d535753aca657f1a70bcda53d6676cc1a090666133730cd74265.jpg 
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/BeigeBook_20240417.pdf