Oddbean new post about | logout
 Is Microstrategy a bubble?!

Seems too good to be true.

Clean link 👇
https://youtu.be/HMMCQfOZyPs 
 I would say there’s a non zero chance that it is. 
 If you don't know where the yield is coming from, you're probably the yield.

In this case, I can see where the yield is coming from. It's coming from entities that want some exposure to Bitcoin without the downside risk. These are the entities buying the MSTR bonds.

Should MSTR stuff up massively in some way or Bitcoin goes to zero (heaven forbid), bond holders are probably going to be ok. At worst they get the coupon value since bond holders get made whole before shareholders.

The Bitcoin risk is entirely carried by the shareholders. Because of the bond holders this downside risk is amplified but so is the downside risk. 

The most likely risk I see with MSTR is the downside risk should we see another Bitcoin bear market. MSTR currently trades at a premium to the Bitcoin they allegedly hold. If Bitcoin dumps hard, this will likely flip to a discount (like we saw with GBTC). This is when I might consider buying some if I happened to have fiat lying around (which I don't & probably won't).

The highest impact risk is them losing control of their sats. This is a devastating risk should it eventuate. In the short term (<4 years) it's unlikely to occur but on a long enough time frame, it's a certainty.

The beautiful thing is that he's found a bit of a glitch to accumulate sats using the fiat system. Every Bitcoiner benefits from what he's doing via their increased purchasing power, without wearing the risk that shareholders do.

FAFO honey badger DGAF