Ok, let's assume based on your assessment Ukraine says "no" to this deal.  What happens next?  Does Ukraine get back all its former territory? No.  I think it goes on to lose a lot more territory.  I think this agreement is generous in that regard.  Compare it to Putin's suggested deal in which

  * Russia gets all of Kherson and Zaphorizia
  * Ukraine must demilitarize and denazify

My deal is a better deal for Ukraine, and one that Russia might accept.  I don't think Russia would accept less because, put simply, they are winning.

I'm not making any normative statements here. I'm not saying Russia SHOULD get something or that Russia isn't wrong.  I'm being diplomatic based on the actual on-the-ground state of things.

If you insist I make normative pronouncements, then Russia was wrong for invading and Ukraine has every right to join NATO.  But I'm a realist, not a fantasist. 

 Without any securities guarantees they’ll just be sitting ducks for another run at some more lands down the road 🤷‍♂️ 

 Fair point. Add in some security guarantees for Ukraine of some sort... maybe Russian assets held in Western institutions that can be confiscated if... oh wait, that's already happened.  Doesn't seem to work. 

 My point is it’s NATO or nothing for Ukraine. Putin sort of screwed himself with that genius move… 

 “Ukraine must not join NATO! I’ll go ahead and attack to ensure they have no choice but to join” 


What a brilliant guy… 🤦‍♂️ 

 Putin's thinking was that NATO couldn't admit Ukraine if Ukraine was at war with Russia because that would immediately put NATO at war with Russia. And so by attacking Ukraine they prevented Ukraine from joining NATO.  I'm sure Putin did not expect as much Western backing as Ukraine has gotten.  But even with that Western backing, Ukraine is still not in NATO and NATO is still not at direct war with Russia.  So we don't have a decisive answer as to whether Putin's strategy "screwed himself" or not, we have to wait for the future to show us who is the better strategist, Vladimir Putin or karnage. 

 I’m no strategist 😂 

 Ah man!  I wanted to get an autographed copy of your next book!