Ok, let's assume based on your assessment Ukraine says "no" to this deal.  What happens next?  Does Ukraine get back all its former territory? No.  I think it goes on to lose a lot more territory.  I think this agreement is generous in that regard.  Compare it to Putin's suggested deal in which

  * Russia gets all of Kherson and Zaphorizia
  * Ukraine must demilitarize and denazify

My deal is a better deal for Ukraine, and one that Russia might accept.  I don't think Russia would accept less because, put simply, they are winning.

I'm not making any normative statements here. I'm not saying Russia SHOULD get something or that Russia isn't wrong.  I'm being diplomatic based on the actual on-the-ground state of things.

If you insist I make normative pronouncements, then Russia was wrong for invading and Ukraine has every right to join NATO.  But I'm a realist, not a fantasist.