Oddbean

Back when ETH did the change to its money supply algorithm to be deflationary, a lot of people correctly pointed out that they can just change it again. And they did, so now it's back to having a similar supply distribution rate as bitcoin, but with fewer reasons for anyone to want to hold it long term relative to bitcoin, and with more competition nipping at its heels than bitcoin. https://m.primal.net/KpBk.png https://m.primal.net/KpBf.png

The case for eth just seems to be fleeting by the day I wonder where it would be at it if didn’t have institutions like Coinbase or circle propping it up when it also really seems like they don’t even know what to do with it

The land scape of chain networks has evolved so much … at this point it’s hard to imagine a chain being as rock solid as BTC … … and IMHO the likelihood of ETH ever catching up is going lower …

I said this back then too… to myself… but totally agree. I have been saying… to myself… since the merge… that ETH will get flipped by another more centralized PoS network with lower fees because… if I’m (not me) going to use a centralized network, why bother with high fees and layers?

counter argument is that ETH has orders of magnitude more liquidity and devs than other networks, but i still think you're right in the long run 🤙🏼 BTC will always be king, and anything that can be done on other networks will, if truly valuable, eventually be possible on the bitcoin network higher layers

Exactly the idea is over time the liquidity will flow to something like Solana, and new money will be evaluating options and pick the lower fee PoS network, leading to ETH eventually getting flipped before ever flipping Bitcoin

Yea I think the biggest issue here is the ability to change the issuance at all or at the whim of individuals. Seems likely that eventually people will vote to do what's best for themselves which seems like anything that would allow the largest stakers to accrue the most tokens which will lead to broken currency but who knows. Maybe I'm over simplifying or

Buying is always easy, selling back is super hard. You always think it's going to recover. At some point I said, ok it's done, once it pass 0.07 again, half of ATH, I start selling, I said to my self as long as it stays above 0.07 I sell little by little to do some kind of DCA (ETH against BTC) until it goes down again or I got out of it. Price felt down right after and never pass this level again. I still think the bull market will move it up again because they are enough people who have no clue what they buy and didn't understand it yet as we do, including all ETF folks, so I hold on it until then but I set I new rule, once BTC goes a new ATH+20% or so, then retract a bit, that might be close to the new high of ETHBTC, at this point I start selling regularly to be out of it within 4-6 months which would cover all possible new high until it goes again down to oblivion. I also added a safety breaker, if nothing happenend by mid Nov 2024, I sell no matter what for the next 6 months. This help me sleep at night again but I will feel much better when I'll be finally out of this. Wish be luck or wish me to burn, I need to find a way that leave me in peace.

Best of luck in your exit from ETH. My solution was to bail out of it all at once. It's neither fish nor fowl. BTC is the best money and SOL is currently the hot programmable chain. Every day I wasn't getting out of it felt like an opportunity cost hammer hitting me in the chest.

We are in the same situation. I dont understand how is possible that an ETF, that should hold the coin because is a fund, has just sold everything. Only outflows without inflows … https://m.primal.net/KpuM.jpg

As I understood, it's this Grayscale ETHE ETF that existed before but was not spot ETF and you could only buy without ever redeem the ETH behind it, the only way to sell was to find a new buyer for the ETF, this drag down the price to 50% of it's supose ETH value. When ETF spot was appoved, this Grayscale ETHE ETF was converted to spot with possibility to redeem the ETH 1 to 1 in equivalebt dollar value (you cannot get the real ETH). So a lot of people locked in before, including a lot of speculator that bought it at a discount to make a profit once the ETF spot happen, massively redeem the ETH value in USD forcing Grayscale to sold them. The exact same happened to the Grayscale Bitcoin ETF, except that the price dump was temporary and absorbed quickly by the huge demand for BTC. At some point, like for the BTCE (bot sure of the name), once everyone who wanted to sell sold, ot will get more bullish again, this could happen super fast... or never. I make the bet that demand will rise one last time pushed by the next BTC rally, but maybe I'm wrong and will just sell my ETH at an ever lower BTC price. I might also keep some fiat in hope that BTC deep a bit after ATH but that's even more risky.

It has another problem now. With activities migrating to l2s, the native token of the base layer has no clear use case. It isn't exactly money, and with dwindling activity on the l1 it isn't in particular demand as digital oil either. Add in that there is no staking yield if you buy it through the ETF and you have a problem on the demand side.

L2 efficiency goes up, ETH burn rate decreases, demand for ETH decreases. ETH burn rate and demand decreasing leads to inflation rate of ETH increasing, price of ETH decreasing, L2 costs decreasing reducing incentive to make L2s more efficient. L2s increase ETH consumption again until their costs are prohibitive enough to be worthwhile running efficiently. And the loop continues…

It’s true that Ethereum’s supply changes highlight the flexibility of its protocol, but that flexibility is a double-edged sword. It can also raise concerns about long-term stability and predictability, especially compared to Bitcoin’s fixed supply. Competition in the smart contract space is intense, but Ethereum’s network effect and first-mover advantage still keep it ahead. Whether it can maintain that lead is an open question.