Oddbean

My honest opinion? You'll lose. Long term (say 2034) I'm obviously of the same opinion as you. Even more, I don't even believe long term ETH will outperform the USD. But in 12-ish months, I think it's more likely than not that it has a higher return than BTC.

The reason why I can say this while being consistently BTC-only and not touching ETH with a 3 foot pole is that I don't like "trading". Too much work that detracts from real work and life. I prefer to invest very long term -- buy and forget. And in that mindset there simply isn't an option other than BTC. Plus, it doubles as store of wealth. So it's a no-brainer, really. nostr:nevent1qqswlmmz5sp7x47gav0xy2ge73ufvdcdhmg7aztd8vug6g788gdu9ucppemhxue69uhkummn9ekx7mp0qgsg900w2ph8d84ujnhz7d3dqlqevrwwgzavv5xcy6jzlrsvqxwre9srqsqqqqqp54e63v

ok didn't see this post first, so you believe ETH will outperform BTC but don't hold any? you are the opposite of me, I believe it will never recover significantly, maybe to 0.05-0.06 at very best for a brief period of time, with chances we barely rise above current level ever. Still I cannot resolve myself to let it go and convert this shit to BTC for good.

I’m genuinely interested in learning and would like to ask you: 1. Why do you think ETH performed between 2020-2021? 2. Why did other alt coins see a banana run in that time period? What causes this? #nostr

Excess liquidity in the system. That's happening again imminently. If Kamala wins, we'll have PRINTER GO BRRRRR. If Trump wins, on top of that, we will have CRYPTO GO BRRRRO. The way it has worked historically is that BTC is pushed up and to the right by all that monetary debasement, and when investors kind of get tired of it, it overflows to ETH and the others. I believe that given those conditions, it will happen again, because that's a behavior that stems from human nature and psychology themselves. The reason why ETH will outperform BTC is simply that it's market cap is smaller. So it can do larger percent gains with a smaller cash inflow. cc nostr:nprofile1qythwumn8ghj7un9d3shjtnswf5k6ctv9ehx2ap0qyfhwumn8ghj7ur4wfcxcetsv9njuetn9uq32amnwvaz7tmjv4kxz7fwv3sk6atn9e5k7tcpr9mhxue69uhkyat5vd5x2u3wdehhxarjxyhxxmmd9uq3vamnwvaz7tmwdaehgu3wd4skc6tw9ehkump0qys8wumn8ghj7un9d3shjtnnw3skw6twvuhxwetewdjhytnxw4hxgtcp8pmhxue69uhkc6t8dp6xu6twvuhxyetwvd5x7erjdanxvtnrdakj7mn0wd68ycmvd9jkuap0v9cxjtmkxyhhyetvv9uszxmhwden5te0dehhxarj9enk2unzd9k8xtn0dekxjmn99uq3samnwvaz7tmwdaehgu3wdpshx6rzv9hxwtnwdshsz8thwden5te0dehhxarj9enxz6tjwd5xzun99eek7cmfv9kz7qghwaehxw309ahx7um5wghxv6tvd4mk2c3wwpkz7qgcwaehxw309ahx7um5wghxwetewdjhytnxw4hxgtcprdmhxue69uhkummnw3ezu6rpwpc8jarpwejhym3wvdhj7qghwaehxw309ahx7um5wghxwmr9v4ax2tnrdakj7qghwaehxw309ahx7um5wghxw6tjd9hx7tn0wfnj7qgcwaehxw309ahx7um5wghxsetvd9hkgetc9e3kvtcprfmhxue69uhkummnw3ezu6r90p5x27pwdahxc6twv5hszxrhwden5te0dehhxarj9e5x7mrevfjkztnrdakj7qgkwaehxw309ahx7um5wghx5cmvda6kgtn9wvhsz9mhwden5te0dehhxarj9e5xjenfwd5zummjvuhszxnhwden5te0dehhxarj9e5hgumwv4382mrp9ehx2ap0qythwumn8ghj7mn0wd68ytn2v9mxjtnnwpskxef0qyt8wumn8ghj7mn0wd68ytnfdenhw6t99ekk2tcpr9mhxue69uhkummnw3ezumr0vdskc6r0wd6zuun99uq3gamnwvaz7tmwdaehgu3wdf5k6cewd4jj7qpqqq7k890ege6alxwj6uyk0ysuj6jyhxaye9p2zd8u335u5kzr4esszpnl0j

Would seriously like to know why you think ETH will outperform BTC in the next 12 months as I still have ETH that I want to convert back to BTC but I'm always waiting for >0.07BTC to come back and since then it's just spiraling down like hell. In your opinion, what are the chances thst we get back to 0.07 or even 0.06 in the next 3 to 12 months and why?