Like with bitcoin adoption, I see nostr adoption as slow going but assured because there will always be people out there that desperately need an uncensorable speech platform. 

Bitcoin will make it all the way to a global money used by everyone someday because of the network effects of money. They won't have a choice. However Nostr's future isn't as assured. Like you said the average person isn't likely to worry about being banned, and payments over social isn't as appealing to them as we like to think it is.

But Nostr, like Linux, has that awesome usefulness in solving techie problems behind the scenes that will keep it growing regardless, even if the mainstream keeps using their microsoft and apple products forever.  I think we need to be prepared to accept this future for it.  

 >I see nostr adoption as slow going but assured because there will always be people out there that desperately need an uncensorable speech platform.
True, but if Nostr grows more with people on the fringe and more extreme ideas than the majority of the mainstream, then the "normals" are much less likely to adopt it because they can't reach the people they want to.

>Bitcoin will make it all the way to a global money used by everyone someday because of the network effects of money.
😬 I don't share your confidence about Bitcoin on this. It could. But by no means is it inevitable.

I think it would be a great thing for Nostr to grow and expand its audience, but I believe it has a more difficult road ahead of it than the other current options out there like ActivityPub and Bluesky. 

 I've literally never met anyone who is using bluesky, nor have I even heard of activitypub. Is that like a bar where they do arts & crafts? 

These aren't serious competitors, and even if they were, the serious privacy advocates are all working on Nostr, so it's the only one that activists are going to use.

...And the more authoritarian govts become, the more everyone becomes an activist. 

 >These aren't serious competitors, and even if they were, the serious privacy advocates are all working on Nostr, so it's the only one that activists are going to use.

I'm going to argue that at this point, Nostr isn't a serious competitor to the others as far as social networks go. If security is what you're after, then sure, it's currently better in that regard, but until more people know about it and the onboarding process is easier, then that doesn't mean much. It could be the most secure platform ever built but if people find it confusing or difficult to use, or don't know anyone on it, then they aren't going to use it.