Like with bitcoin adoption, I see nostr adoption as slow going but assured because there will always be people out there that desperately need an uncensorable speech platform. 

Bitcoin will make it all the way to a global money used by everyone someday because of the network effects of money. They won't have a choice. However Nostr's future isn't as assured. Like you said the average person isn't likely to worry about being banned, and payments over social isn't as appealing to them as we like to think it is.

But Nostr, like Linux, has that awesome usefulness in solving techie problems behind the scenes that will keep it growing regardless, even if the mainstream keeps using their microsoft and apple products forever.  I think we need to be prepared to accept this future for it.