Oddbean

no way is it extinction if anything it’ll be a boom of growth both in numbers and in wealth for everyone involved. dangerous jobs out of the picture, no shortage of food, etc. science fiction movies are written by people who didn’t understand LLMs, it’s pure fantasy. we need to touch base with the reality of this technology.

Well shoot. Call me e/acc then :) But for real. The above assumes we maintain control. Were I to assume that, I’d totally agree with you. I think the main difference in our views is that I would put my confidence in that assumption at less than 100%, and also small enough that I’m not comfortable simply behaving as if it is 100%. And the sci-fi outcome is not exclusively thought to be possible by people who don’t understand LLMs. Don’t know if you’ve seen survey results from AI researchers, but you see the full range of predictions from them as well 🫂

Those “ai researchers” want control over ai, they call themselves “Ai Alliance” https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2023/12/ibm-meta-form-ai-alliance-with-50-organizations-to-promote-open-source-ai/

Nice. That is consistent though with them acting in good faith though right? And I agree. It’s potentially Orwellian. Here’s the paper I was referring to. I think you’re not saying that none of the respondents who are worried are acting in bad faith? https://aiimpacts.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/Thousands_of_AI_authors_on_the_future_of_AI.pdf https://image.nostr.build/329263b1de4e2059e7970e99dafbe1f94bfd8669a3ac1366e7182d30329f6d28.jpg

I’ll read the paper n get back to you! 🫡 but there’s definitely safety concerns!! I just don’t believe that it’ll do worst than it’ll do good, I believe the trade offs will be significantly good for human kind in the long run. 🫂

I commit to sending 1k sats your way if you do 🫂 Yeah, I really hope you’re right. If that happens, humans will be free in a way we’ve never seen before. It’ll be amazing. Luxury automated superabundance. Idk what percent confidence I’d assign that vs the other outcome, just know that extinction is >0% chance, and therefore, since quadrillions (to understate it) of lives are on the line, I think treading very carefully is super super important.

But also an increase in useless people who can't contribute meaningfully. This are relegated to being supported via UBI or whatever. Then you have people who are have never fed themselves. They only have ever been able to eat by taking.

nostr:note1duj66gdgq6sc76t2gj7z90slg5cnp0m7sh62dkkpf0fd48qtatcsz3th4s With full acknowledgement that even I could be one of those people, or my offspring. Living a life where your useless is not exactly a future I am excited about for myself, or for anyone else for that matter.

I don't know if that's true. I would love to believe that, I really would. Was Hitler valuable? Stalin? Terrorists? Degenerates of every stripe? There are some who many would agree that is not the case. Not even to mention the people above, or people like them, would have the same feeling about you or I. And if the mighty think you are not valuable, what are you going to do to stop them from implementing whatever machinations they have in mind for you?

That’s part of why it’s a big problem if people don’t see everyone as valuable. I would say those people are profoundly and tragically mistaken, and still individually valuable. That’s part of the worldview where you endeavor to avoid harming anyone, helping everyone you can, but also defending yourself. 🫂🫂🫂

Hell is other people, we learn from them n their choices, we make advancements in reinforcing measures to not allow their mistakes to take place over n over again.. like mark says everyone is individually valuable n offer some contribution to humanity’s path forward.