Oddbean

I just see no way that doesn’t end in humans losing the ability to be part of more than essentially 0% of the economy. That might also mean extinction, idk. So it makes me think e/acc is not the way. It’s a a point of dissonance in my mind for sure because it implies freedom restriction.

no way is it extinction if anything it’ll be a boom of growth both in numbers and in wealth for everyone involved. dangerous jobs out of the picture, no shortage of food, etc. science fiction movies are written by people who didn’t understand LLMs, it’s pure fantasy. we need to touch base with the reality of this technology.

Well shoot. Call me e/acc then :) But for real. The above assumes we maintain control. Were I to assume that, I’d totally agree with you. I think the main difference in our views is that I would put my confidence in that assumption at less than 100%, and also small enough that I’m not comfortable simply behaving as if it is 100%. And the sci-fi outcome is not exclusively thought to be possible by people who don’t understand LLMs. Don’t know if you’ve seen survey results from AI researchers, but you see the full range of predictions from them as well 🫂

Those “ai researchers” want control over ai, they call themselves “Ai Alliance” https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2023/12/ibm-meta-form-ai-alliance-with-50-organizations-to-promote-open-source-ai/

Nice. That is consistent though with them acting in good faith though right? And I agree. It’s potentially Orwellian. Here’s the paper I was referring to. I think you’re not saying that none of the respondents who are worried are acting in bad faith? https://aiimpacts.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/Thousands_of_AI_authors_on_the_future_of_AI.pdf https://image.nostr.build/329263b1de4e2059e7970e99dafbe1f94bfd8669a3ac1366e7182d30329f6d28.jpg

I’ll read the paper n get back to you! 🫡 but there’s definitely safety concerns!! I just don’t believe that it’ll do worst than it’ll do good, I believe the trade offs will be significantly good for human kind in the long run. 🫂

I commit to sending 1k sats your way if you do 🫂 Yeah, I really hope you’re right. If that happens, humans will be free in a way we’ve never seen before. It’ll be amazing. Luxury automated superabundance. Idk what percent confidence I’d assign that vs the other outcome, just know that extinction is >0% chance, and therefore, since quadrillions (to understate it) of lives are on the line, I think treading very carefully is super super important.

But also an increase in useless people who can't contribute meaningfully. This are relegated to being supported via UBI or whatever. Then you have people who are have never fed themselves. They only have ever been able to eat by taking.

I don't know if that's true. I would love to believe that, I really would. Was Hitler valuable? Stalin? Terrorists? Degenerates of every stripe? There are some who many would agree that is not the case. Not even to mention the people above, or people like them, would have the same feeling about you or I. And if the mighty think you are not valuable, what are you going to do to stop them from implementing whatever machinations they have in mind for you?

That’s part of why it’s a big problem if people don’t see everyone as valuable. I would say those people are profoundly and tragically mistaken, and still individually valuable. That’s part of the worldview where you endeavor to avoid harming anyone, helping everyone you can, but also defending yourself. 🫂🫂🫂

Hell is other people, we learn from them n their choices, we make advancements in reinforcing measures to not allow their mistakes to take place over n over again.. like mark says everyone is individually valuable n offer some contribution to humanity’s path forward.

I guess technically I'm a hater. It's not that simple though. I can see that some of the fear mongering is an obvious attempt to make it inaccessible to plebs (can't have a repeat of the internet can we?) In this sense I'm for acceleration. But I also think that it will ultimately contribute to the continued decline of human quality.

I disagree every technological advancement to date has proven to be for an increase in human quality of life, this is my opinion. I’m not of the opinion of “back in the day” we had higher human quality. there’s never been a moment in time where humans have had access to education n resources like we do in todays day n age.

100% Never have so many humans escaped poverty, never has violence been so low, never has education been so available. We live in golden times. Oh and also never before have we had such good money :)

Sure, it will make life very easy. That's not good. Hardship is what helps shape people into who they're supposed to be. We're not become more hardy as people, we're becoming weaker. Softer. Depression is at its highest and growing. Suicide too. It's getting the point where no real effort is being made to make people not want to die. Instead we're helping people die. That's just one data point, in fairness. But I think it's important. Plus this is based on the assumption that all advancements in tech will lead to improvements in perpetuity. Which is not likely, because all things are subject to diminishing returns. I do agree that quality of life was not higher back in the day. I agree that having access to information is good. But there is something else about how life is now that is soulless. Also you can't go back, so I'm not really advocating for that.

Hardships will remain a thing always, if you don’t think we have hardships now with all the technological advancements we have you’re mistaken. You’re speaking about the west and certain European countries but the GRAND majority of civilization still has hardships day in n day out.. and if you think depression is something new or suicides also incorrect.. in fact I’d argue it’s more likely to happen if life wasn’t “easier” but yeah I see where you’re coming from I think there’s a compromise here somewhere

Agreed on the points about the west. And yes some hardship will remain. It's hard to imagine a world with none. I don't think depression and suicide is new, it's been around for a long time. I just think these things are getting worse, and it's a red flag for me. Ultimately, time will tell how all this will turn out, and it's out of my hands (not that it was ever in them)