Well.... Maybe :)
Incentives are, also, get more zaps. So one should focus on zappers, which may not be the same as focus on larger reach.
And the bitcoiners seed... I think most movements start with narrow focused groups. Makes more sense.
I don't see your reasoning as nonsense, on the contrary it's very based.
But I don't see your examples as crippling by definition.
Generally speaking I see nostr still far away to the point of being inevitable.
Can't make an argument about it now.
I don't think economic incentives are helpful to the microblogging experience.
Communication itself should be the end.