Oddbean new post about login | logout We've been told in the past that bitcoin has a faster adoption rate than the internet but if that was true back then - and I don't doubt it - it certainly isn't now, there's no way it's keeping up at that speed. Just like those people who say bitcoin will prevent wars from happening, saying bitcoin will create a boom in childbirth is a dream, it just doesn't make sense. I remember back when people said bitcoin was going to kill the banks but that was never going to happen. Banks are *far* too powerful for that, they'd somehow get in the game if it made financial sense to them but bitcoin will not kill them. Hyperbitcoinization is currently no more than a dream & if it does happen it will be partly due to radically better technology than what we currently have because mass adoption of Lightning is never going to happen, check El Salvador for an example. Bitcoiners still get giddy any time a video of someone buying a coffee with bitcoin is posted online but that isn't growing at any meaningful pace. Also self-custody still isn't ready for prime time either despite what the maxis say although I think this area is getting better & better, lots of great things happening there. Don't get me wrong I am a bitcoiner and have been stacking for 6+yrs but some of the stories bitcoiners come up with just don't match reality, they are dreams but they are enticing.
Yeah I don’t necessarily believe all of that stuff. And hyperbitcoinization might not characteristically look like any of those things that bitcoiners might think. Again, I think it’s as simple as freedom tech, and adopting sound principles relative to sound money. I don’t think we need to add all of these additional things to it. I also think it’s been 13 years, and we can’t actually compare bitcoin directly to anything because nothing there’s simply nothing like it. We are just trying to build models around technology from the past, but this is radically different. So while I indirectly compare it to the internet, combustion engine, printing press, etc, I don’t think characteristically we can say they’re all the same. They will all follow their own adoption paths, and something that has the ability to disrupt the financial system will take longer considering more friction. I do think less banking will occur and more will use open applications for money and commerce, where they can send money just like they would a text message free of required of a centralized institution, but that may be more for the tech savvy. There will probably be LSP onboarding services which will reduce the friction of adoption for things like Lightning. Disrupting finance isn’t easy, but I’m still expecting that to occur, just maybe not in the exact what everyone is thinking.