Oddbean

Normally I like to keep to a single good morning note per day, but today deserves two. Fuck this and fuck Saylor. GM Nostr (again) 🧡⚡ https://video.nostr.build/fc4c984ffb33dc31018d5da0722b6a917498dcfe3248f2dbbb62b1e4f7fc733e.mp4

Step 1: Banks hold btc for customers. Step 2: Banks cant fractioneel reserve, or they roll over when they do(bankrun). Step 3: Banks service rates increase. Step 4: Bank customers have an incentive to study cheaper options. Step 5: race to the bottom. Banks restrain themselve or go out of business. Game theorie plays out. Saylor is planning chess.

He’s pandering. His stack belongs to the CIA and they’re not going to custody it with big banks. But he wants other people to get comfortable with Bitcoin so they adopt it so that the CIA stack is dynamite It’s like Tor… the spies need other people to use it or else using it is a sign you’re a spy

I think reality is that life is a lot more boring that people want to believe. No CIA conspiracy here, just a businessman looking to leverage everything he can from his investments. Saylor holds a lot of bitcoin, doesn't do shit for the community. Best off not feeding in to the Saylor story... which makes me a hypocrite I know.

I think the real shit-go is the endless capital generation from selling shares to fund his bitcoin bags. The antithesis of bitcoin. He's on rinse and repeat until his tower of Babel comes tumbling down and sends us all to goblin town for three years. 😂

He has also, for a long time, advocated for the USD to remain the reserve currency, and pushed for Bitcoin to only being a store of value. He shape shifts language too, calling Bitcoin a commodity. When it acutely is money.

I think it’s totally ok to save your money. The point here is one around the integrity of Michael Saylor. He is using software/cognitive warfare techniques to manipulate. Bitcoin is money, not a commodity, it’s also not an investment, but can be saved. It replaces the fiat system and the USD. You should hold your own Keyes not give them to the banks. And, he uses other people’s money to acquire Bitcoin.

Bitcoin is for enemies. When bitcoin becomes the money of the world everyone will use it. There will be good and evil people using it. They will be using it for good and ill. My question is will there be banks? I'm not convinced they will go away. Maybe they will but who knows how long it will take. I do think technology destroys middle men and I can see a future without banks. The other part of this is I don't think he's wrong. I'm not for it, but I think he is talking about the clown crypto firms being replace by tradfi/banks. That will happen in the short term. Its already happening. It will continue. I don't agree with his rational as he's still a statist but he's not wrong about his prediction. Tradfi will not just go away but I doubt many of these crypto firms survive the next decade. They will be gobbled up or put out of business by the state. They just don't have the clout with the state. The adult supervision part... seems to me he's talking about custodians rugging people. I've listened to Saylor quite a bit and he's a statist but he's pretty minarchist at least. These regulators and state actors are dead they just don't know it yet. Bitcoin is slowly destroying their power base and by the time they realize it, it will be to late. So I don't really care what Saylor says in this regard. It isn't up to him. Anyone worried about a single man stopping bitcoin is not bullish on bitcoin.

While this is "undesirable" to most bitcoiners, it does seems inevitable. When btc 10x, the banks will want a piece of the actions and offer insurance for custodial service of people's bitcoin & many will want it. Or the banks anticipate the 10x coming and get in now.