Oddbean

All bitcoin long term TA is bs. It is not an established market with any sort of pattern. You have one off events that move the market in a matter of hours. Nothing can predict this. Just because something coincided here and there doesn’t mean there’s any relation between the events. The only trend that seems to persist is price tracking the stock market. This is very short term based and if you’re a trader you might take advantage of it but I wouldn’t recommend it. Everyone knows the past doesn’t predict the future but TA boys seem to forget it. That being said there could be some self-fulfilling prophecy playing out where people falsely believing something is about to happen, act in a way that at scale their actions actually trigger that event. Eg. Oh, next month everything usually dumps so I better sell now (everyone sells and the dump occurs because of their actions). But it’s anyone guess if this happens and how often.