Oddbean new post about login | logout An issue with Universal Basic Income that I haven't seen addressed is that it would become an annuity that people will find ways to borrow and spend against. Thus degenerate or desperate recipients will just make purchases today against their "credit line" of future annuity payments. Not sure how you'd prevent this in practice.
Is it the amount that worries you? I can't do that with the current monthly payments I receive from my feds. Or are you thinking grey market stuff like payday loans?
Yeah I expect it would be like predatory payday loans.
I don’t understand why you’re lost in the weeds? It’s just more money printing. In a debt based system, ubi and potential loans are all just money printing by a different name. And, in this case, it’s just giving out peanuts to the poor to keep them quiet while allocating property to the elite. At the end, you end up like the Soviet Union. With a non productive, complacent and apathetic society that doesn’t produce anything of value. That then implodes.
you can't save everyone from themselves. I don't think UBI will be necessary forever. as a bitcoin standard emerges, a lot of the cultural and mindset issues will fade. maybe it takes a generation or 2 but I see UBI as helping those too deeply bought into the fiat bullshit. when that's not a problem anymore, it'll go away
This is exactly what happens around the world. I've seen it first hand... and used it... I had family member who work government jobs. which in my country are considered guaranteed income for life, because you don't get fired. And Government employees had access to small credit lines to buy appliances and electronics no questions asked. (We didnt have credit cards). And what started happening, their income was so low, they would buy electronics for friends to get cash. say they buy a $1000 iphone, sell it for a friend for $1000, and pay the installments directly deducted from their salaries. All of them were under huge amounts of debt.
I think that's a first world problem. The project I saw in Kenya, all UBI did was turn around almost every recipient family's fortune and health, relationships and community. Or maybe its a general condition, that the poor are underestimated? If you have no hope you do degen stuff for sure. Just a few bucks a week though can bring so much hope when you have nothing. Ask me how I know!
It will be a breeding ground for scammers.
The “need” for UBI and other schemes seem to be a cope to the carnage fiat policies are leaving behind. Perhaps even acting as a distraction away from other solutions that should be tried first, like going back to hard money policies. If peoples incomes and savings arent being slowly chipped and burned away through inflation, then how much UBI will they even need, if any? Good morning Lopp 🫡
wont ubi come with expiration dates? I assume that it will be digital, programmable, surveillable, and have a limited time to use it. kind of like coupons
central bank digital coupons
They will get people to use a CBDC by offering them a UBI that they can only receive and use in the CBDC. Once everyone is switched over and using the CBDC, that is when they will start programming what you can and can't spend money on, when you can spend it and when it goes away, and shutting off money to those who don't act, speak, or think in the right way. Almost everyone will switch to the CBDC to get their "free money".
UBI will be used and abused just like any other government program..
You couldn’t stop it. Payday loans will explode on these new guaranteed paydays. People who refused to be responsible will continue to do so. You can’t fix it by “helping “ by feeding the addiction. Prices will explode for basic needs. TV sizes will get bigger etc
This is effectively the same general problem of how con you control how it's used? Ultimately, you can't. Whether it's used for drugs, gambling, repayments to loan sharks, or any other un-'planned' uses, degens will find a way. The advocate position - as unfalsifiable as it may be - is simply that on balance, the positive results provided would outweigh the negatives.
This is why CBDC and UBI are such a perfect fit. UBI is the carrot for CBDC, and CBDC is the control on how UBI is used.
Even then, CBDC control is only effective until value is transferred to the underground market. e.g. receive CBDC, use CBDC to buy approved food, clothing, etc; then, trade approved purchases for underground market currency in order to spend on whatever. In short, Degens will find a way.
this is actually somewhat reassuring, but isn't CBDC use totally transparent to those controlling it?
Yes. It almost certainly would be designed to be totally transparent to those controlling it.
It already happens with food stamps traded for cents on the dollar.
CBDC’s will fix that I’m sure!
I also haven't found a solution for who should do the dirty work
You'd probably find someone to do it, but at a much higher price. Also automation becomes more viable at those high prices.
Good point and I think 💯 accurate
In practice no UBI done on a grand scale would survive long enough to need this solution you're looking for. That people's money will start hyperinflating first.
*wouldn't