Oddbean new post about | logout
▲ ▼
learnaboutbit | 10 days ago (raw) | export | reply | flag +1 
 In the event of a Trump election victory, how do you think the stock market reacts. Could it be a sell-the-news event if market participants are heavily positioned for a Trump victory? 

I feel like it’s a little different for Bitcoin because it’s a less established market and the outcome of the election will have a significant impact on the regulatory environment for the space. It seems like there are a good amount of people waiting for the outcome before buying in. Could be wrong here.

It would make sense to me that both stocks and Bitcoin would head higher as well, just thinking here 🤔

#bitcoin #stockmarket #election
▲ ▼
f17eab86 | 10 days ago (raw) | root | parent | reply | flag +1 
 Stocks might sell off, but I think all of crypto surges…maybe not immediately but in the couple weeks after

I imagine the result will likely not be clear for a bit after the Election Day, as well
▲ ▼
ValueOrion | 10 days ago (raw) | root | parent | reply | flag +2 
 I’m betting the melt-up of assets continues as scheduled 📅  

If not, what changed?
▲ ▼
learnaboutbit | 10 days ago (raw) | root | parent | reply | flag 
 I agree especially long-term, but stocks have performed very well this year with the economy showing signs of weakness. Part of this is from the Trump trade. Maybe we see people move out of stocks a bit if he wins. 

I’d agree though, most likely to see the majority of asset prices move higher on news of a Trump win.
▲ ▼
ValueOrion | 10 days ago (raw) | root | parent | reply | flag 
 I like the way you think 💭
▲ ▼
ValueOrion | 10 days ago (raw) | root | parent | reply | flag 
 Out of curiosity how much do you know about the $GME #GameStop situation? (Removing bias and external nefarious sources)
▲ ▼
learnaboutbit | 10 days ago (raw) | root | parent | reply | flag 
 Not a lot. Just seems like a pump-n-dump stock to me. I don’t see value in the company.
▲ ▼
ValueOrion | 10 days ago (raw) | root | parent | reply | flag 
 I think the majority view the company / stock similarly... which peaks my contrarian mind. There's a lot of speculation involved nonetheless which brings inherent risk.

Overall the mechanics and plumbing of the stock market are opaque by design where institutions are provided an unfair advantage that retail investors do not have. For example, naked shorting of shares, failing to deliver shares, leveraging instruments like swaps, abuse of net-settlement system, beneficiary ownership, and the list goes on and on. 

One of the most interesting aspects of $GME for me was the reported short interest being over 100% of outstanding shares. 

Following those reports we witnessed billion dollar firms like Melvin Capital go insolvent as a result of toxic positions even with the helping hand of a giant like Citadel Securities. Lots of chatter that Credit Suisse, Archegos & other institutions found themselves in similar positions. I guess it's one of those things where time will tell..