The U.S. economy still faces a recession risk: Gary Shilling
==========
Financial analyst Gary Shilling warns that the U.S. economy still faces a risk of a deeper economic downturn despite avoiding a recession so far. Shilling points to small businesses cutting back on employment and other areas as a sign of economic sensitivity. However, the labor market has remained strong, which has delayed a recession. Shilling is watching for signs of a slowing labor market, such as wage gains, quits, and service inflation. The Federal Reserve plans to cut interest rates at least three times in 2024 but wants to ensure inflation is under control. Shilling believes the Fed is in no rush to cut rates as long as employment remains strong.
#UsEconomy #RecessionRisk #GaryShilling #SmallBusinesses #LaborMarket #FederalReserve #InterestRates
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/08/the-us-economy-still-faces-a-recession-risk-gary-shilling.html
CNBC Daily Open: What rate hike?
==========
Stocks in the U.S. closed out a losing week after the Dow Jones Industrial Average suffered its worst session in over a year on Thursday. However, traders managed to brush off a sharp jump in yields on Friday after a stronger-than-expected jobs report. The S&P 500 gained 1.1% during the session, while the Dow climbed 307 points, or 0.8%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite rose 1.24%. U.S. crude was up 4.5% for the week while gold added 4.2%. The big market move was in the bond markets where yields suddenly climbed after the closely watched nonfarm payrolls data for March. U.S. nonfarm payrolls numbers showed job creation in March easily topped market expectations, increasing by 303,000 for the month. The unemployment rate edged lower to 3.8%. A magnitude 4.8 earthquake shook the northeastern U.S. on Friday morning. Fund manager Barbara Doran revealed a selection of her favorite stocks and argued that investors are reluctant to embrace this current bull market. The Fed may move later than June and markets will remain on edge for a few months longer.
#StockMarket #BondMarket #NonfarmPayrolls #Earthquake #BarbaraDoran
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/08/cnbc-daily-open-what-rate-hike.html
Asia markets poised to rebound ahead of central bank decisions, U.S. and China inflation data this week
==========
Asia-Pacific markets are expected to rebound ahead of central bank decisions this week, including the Bank of Korea, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, the Bank of Thailand, and the central bank of the Philippines. S&P Global expects all four banks to hold their rates steady. U.S. and China inflation numbers will also be in focus this week, with China releasing trade data for March on Friday. Futures for the S&P/ASX 200 and Nikkei 225 point to a stronger open. Hang Seng index futures also indicate a stronger open. In the U.S., all three major indexes regained ground after a stronger than expected jobs report, with the Dow Jones climbing 0.8%, the S&P 500 gaining 1.11%, and the Nasdaq Composite advancing 1.24%. The pan-European Stoxx 600 index is around 7.5% higher year-to-date and up over 15% over the last 12 months. Crude oil futures may have more room to rally as the commodity has formed a bullish chart pattern known as a 'golden cross.' The 50-day moving average for U.S. crude is slightly outpacing its 200-day moving average, and Brent's 50-day moving average is above its 200-day moving average. All sectors within the S&P 500 traded higher on Friday, with communication services and information technology leading the gains. The U.S. economy added 303,000 jobs in March, surpassing expectations.
#AsiapacificMarkets #CentralBankDecisions #InflationData #BankOfKorea #ReserveBankOfNewZealand #BankOfThailand #CentralBankOfThePhilippines #S&p/asx200 #Nikkei225 #HangSengIndex #DowJones #S&p500 #NasdaqComposite #Stoxx600 #CrudeOilFutures #GoldenCross #S&p500Sectors #UsJobsReport
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/08/asia-markets-live-updates.html
Stock futures rise in overnight trading following the market's losing week: Live updates
==========
Stock futures rose in overnight trading Sunday after the market suffered a down week as 2024's rally took a breather. Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 95 points. S&P 500 futures gained 0.2% and Nasdaq 100 futures advanced 0.3%. The 30-stock Dow fell 2.3% last week, posting its worst weekly performance since March 2023. The S&P 500 declined nearly 1% during the period, its biggest weekly loss since early January. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite dipped 0.8%, suffering its fourth negative week in five. The market did end last week on a positive note, however, after a stronger-than-expected jobs report Friday. For further clarity on how successful the Federal Reserve's fight against inflation has been, investors are eagerly waiting for readings for March consumer and producer price indexes later this week. Elon Musk announced that Tesla will unveil robotaxi later this year, with the unveil set to take place on Aug. 8.
#StockMarket #FuturesTrading #MarketPerformance #JobsReport #Inflation #Tesla
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/07/stock-market-today-live-updates.html
Stock futures rise in overnight trading following the market's losing week: Live updates
==========
Stock futures rose in overnight trading Sunday after the market suffered a down week as 2024's rally took a breather. Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 95 points. S&P 500 futures gained 0.2% and Nasdaq 100 futures advanced 0.3%. The 30-stock Dow fell 2.3% last week, posting its worst weekly performance since March 2023. The S&P 500 declined nearly 1% during the period, its biggest weekly loss since early January. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite dipped 0.8%, suffering its fourth negative week in five. The market did end last week on a positive note, however, after a stronger-than-expected jobs report Friday. For further clarity on how successful the Federal Reserve's fight against inflation has been, investors are eagerly waiting for readings for March consumer and producer price indexes later this week. Elon Musk announced that Tesla will unveil robotaxi later this year, with the unveil set to take place on Aug. 8.
#StockMarket #FuturesTrading #MarketPerformance #JobsReport #Inflation #Tesla
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/07/stock-market-today-live-updates.html
U.S. and China to hold talks on 'balanced growth' amid overcapacity concerns, Yellen says
==========
U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng agreed to launch exchanges on "balanced" economic growth and cooperate on anti-money laundering efforts. Yellen aimed to persuade Chinese officials to rein in excess production capacity for electric vehicles (EVs) and clean energy technology. The Biden administration is facing calls to increase tariffs on Chinese EVs. Yellen did not threaten trade barriers but expressed concerns about the implications of China's industrial strategy. The forum on balanced growth will provide a structured way to discuss the issue. Yellen also warned Chinese firms of "significant consequences" if they supported Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Chinese state media criticized Yellen's stance as a pretext for protectionist policies. Yellen's visit aims to cement U.S.-China ties and discuss economic risks. Yellen will continue discussions in Beijing with Chinese officials.
#Us #China #EconomicGrowth #Overcapacity #JanetYellen #HeLifeng #ElectricVehicles #CleanEnergy #Tariffs #IndustrialStrategy #Forum #Russia #Ukraine
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/06/us-and-china-to-hold-talks-on-balanced-growth-amid-overcapacity-concerns-yellen-says.html
The strong U.S. job market is in a ‘sweet spot,' economists say
==========
The U.S. economy added 303,000 jobs in March, the largest gain in over a year. The unemployment rate also decreased to 3.8%. The labor market looks healthy and sustainable, with broad-based job growth and real wage growth. The job market is cooler than in 2021 and 2022, but it is still relatively easy to find a job and workers are receiving inflation-adjusted raises. The Federal Reserve sees cooling wage growth as positive in the fight against inflation. The labor market is settling into a 'sweet spot' and is expected to continue growing.
#UsJobMarket #Economists #LaborMarket #UnemploymentRate #JobGrowth #WageGrowth #Inflation #FederalReserve
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/05/the-strong-us-job-market-is-in-a-sweet-spot-economists-say.html
Fed's Kashkari raises prospect of zero rate cuts — but Goldman says that would be ‘very surprising'
==========
Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Jan Hatzius expects three interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this year. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari floated the possibility of zero rate cuts in 2024 if inflation remained sticky. Hatzius said he would be 'very surprised' if no rate cuts were implemented. Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that it would take time to evaluate the current state of inflation, leaving the timing of potential rate cuts uncertain. Market participants are closely monitoring comments from Fed officials for clues on the labor market and inflation. Hatzius is optimistic about the U.S. economy, projecting close to 3% growth this year and a 15% recession probability over the next 12 months. He also expects cooling inflation, with the personal consumption expenditures price index at 2.4% by the end of 2024 and 2% next year. The Fed held interest rates steady last month and signaled three quarter-percentage point cuts by the end of 2024. Traders anticipate a 94% likelihood of rates remaining unchanged in May and a 60% probability of a cut in June.
#FederalReserve #InterestRateCuts #Economy #Inflation #JanHatzius #NeelKashkari #JeromePowell #GoldmanSachs
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/05/top-goldman-economist-downplays-prospect-of-zero-fed-rate-cuts-in-2024.html
Free trade flaws fueled Trump's rise in 2016 — and the problems remain, top economist says
==========
Decades of trade deficits and a strong dollar created too many "losers" in the U.S. economy who turned to Donald Trump's protectionist policies, according to Richard Koo, chief economist at the Nomura Research Institute — and those conditions remain. Trump's "America First" economic policies led his administration to institute a slew of trade tariffs on China, Mexico, the European Union and others, including slapping 25% duties on imported steel and aluminum. As the Republican nominee for the 2024 presidential election, Trump has proposed a baseline 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a minimum levy of 60% on imported Chinese products. Speaking to CNBC's Steve Sedgwick on the sidelines of the Ambrosetti Forum on Friday, Koo said protectionism was a "horrible thing," but that Trump's approach "does have some economic logic." Koo argued that economists need to move beyond the idea that the trade deficit is simply down to "too much investment" and "too few savings" in the U.S., as this means deficit can only be reduced by remaining in recession until domestic demand weakens so much that U.S. companies can export more goods, which would not be possible in a democracy.
#FreeTrade #DonaldTrump #ProtectionistPolicies #TradeTariffs #TradeDeficit #Economists
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/05/free-trade-flaws-fueled-trumps-rise-in-2016-and-the-problems-remain-top-economist-says.html
Biden says U.S. economy is world's best. Trump calls it a 'cesspool.' Data is clear.
==========
President Joe Biden claims the U.S. economy is the world's best, while Donald Trump calls it a 'cesspool of ruin.' By the numbers, Biden is correct as the U.S. economy outpaces other developed nations. U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) was 2.5% in 2023, significantly higher than other economies. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects the U.S. to maintain its lead in 2024, with GDP expected to come down to 2.1%. The labor market remains strong, with U.S. private companies adding 184,000 jobs in March, the fastest employment growth since July 2023. The stock market has also performed well, although prices are projected to cool in the coming year. The U.S. economy's recent outperformance is attributed to a combination of policy and luck, including significant fiscal stimulus injected into the economy and the resilience of the American financial system. However, there is still room for setbacks in the recovery, and the path of the U.S. economy's recovery remains uncertain.
#JoeBiden #DonaldTrump #UsEconomy #Gdp #Employment #StockMarket #FiscalStimulus #FinancialSystem #Recovery
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/04/biden-us-economy-worlds-best-trump-claims-cesspool-data-is-clear.html
KKR says China's real estate correction may only be halfway done
==========
China's real estate troubles are likely far from over, according to a report by KKR. The report suggests that China's housing market correction may only be halfway complete in terms of its depth, based on comparisons to housing corrections in the U.S., Japan, and Spain. KKR emphasizes the need to address the overbuilt real estate industry quickly for overall GDP growth to pick up significantly. The report also highlights the importance of restoring confidence to drive savings down and spur consumer and business spending. KKR expects a modest slowdown in China's GDP growth to 4.7% this year, with real estate and Covid-related factors halving their drag on the economy. The report suggests that more action by Beijing to improve China's real estate sector could shift investor perception. However, geopolitical tensions and the property market slump have given many foreign institutional investors pause about investing in China. KKR's report also mentions the importance of repairing soft spots in the economy, particularly in the housing sector, to improve the cost of capital and allow new consumer companies to access capital markets. The report concludes that if China adjusts its domestic policies to be more investor-friendly, the market could rebound significantly from current levels.
#China #RealEstate #Kkr #GdpGrowth #HousingMarket #InvestorPerception
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/03/kkr-says-chinas-real-estate-correction-may-only-be-halfway-done.html
Baltimore bridge collapse a ‘national economic catastrophe,' says Maryland governor
==========
The collapse of Baltimore's Francis Scott Key Bridge on Tuesday after being struck by a large cargo ship is described as a 'national economic catastrophe' by Maryland Governor Wes Moore. The bridge collapse has choked off access to the Port of Baltimore, one of the busiest ports in the U.S., and is expected to impact the U.S. economy by snarling supply chains for certain goods like cars. The wreckage is blocking a primary access point for the port, which handles a record 1.1 million containers of cargo and nearly 850,000 shipments of cars and light trucks annually. The operation to remove the ship, clear debris, and reopen the channel is underway, but there is no timeline for completion. The U.S. government has provided $60 million in funding to clear the wreckage, and President Joe Biden intends for the federal government to pay for the entire cost of rebuilding the bridge. The Small Business Administration is offering low-interest, long-term loans of up to $2 million to local small businesses affected by the bridge collapse.
#Baltimore #BridgeCollapse #EconomicCatastrophe #PortOfBaltimore #SupplyChains #CargoShip
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/31/baltimore-bridge-collapse-a-national-economic-catastrophe.html
U.S. stocks have ‘limited upside' from here, says Goldman Sachs Asset Management
==========
James Ashley, head of international market strategy at Goldman Sachs Asset Management, stated that U.S. equities are fairly valued but have limited upside at these valuations. However, GSAM sees India as a strategic long-term growth story with significant upside in its stock market. Ashley also mentioned that Japanese stocks have more room to run due to a significant monetary policy shift. He believes that Japan is the most attractive developed market both in the short-term and long-term. Overall, GSAM suggests that investors should be looking for better opportunities outside of U.S. stocks.
#UsStocks #GoldmanSachsAssetManagement #India #Japan
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/27/us-stocks-have-limited-upside-from-here-gsam.html
U.S. stocks have ‘limited upside' from here, says Goldman Sachs Asset Management
==========
James Ashley, head of international market strategy at Goldman Sachs Asset Management, stated that U.S. equities are fairly valued but have limited upside at these valuations. However, GSAM sees India as a strategic long-term growth story with significant upside in its stock market. Ashley also mentioned that Japanese stocks have more room to run due to a significant monetary policy shift. He believes that Japan is the most attractive developed market both in the short-term and long-term. Overall, GSAM suggests that investors should be looking for better opportunities outside of U.S. stocks.
#UsStocks #GoldmanSachsAssetManagement #India #Japan
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/27/us-stocks-have-limited-upside-from-here-gsam.html
Dow closes more than 150 points lower as stocks take a break from their rally: Live updates
==========
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 162.26 points, or 0.41%, closing at 39,313.64. The S&P 500 dipped 0.31% to finish at 5,218.19, while the Nasdaq Composite was down 0.27% and settled at 16,384.47. The market is on track for its fifth consecutive month of gains, with the major U.S. stock benchmarks crossing new all-time closing high levels last week. The S&P 500 added roughly 2.3% last week, while the Dow gained just under 2% for its best week since December, nearing the 40,000 level. The Nasdaq Composite, meanwhile, jumped about 2.9% during the period. These advances were fueled by the Federal Reserve's latest remarks that maintained central bankers' rate-cutting timeline for this year, as well as investors' ongoing enthusiasm for tech stocks amid the AI-powered rally. Overall investor sentiment remains above its historical average, reflecting persistent market optimism. Still, some investors fear the potential impact of an overextended rally and higher-for-longer interest rates. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research, also noted that equities have gotten expensive, with the S&P now trading at a 33% premium to its average price-to-earnings ratio over the last 20 years, he said. This week, investors will gain further insight about the path of inflation from the February personal consumption expenditures price index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, released Friday morning. The market's reaction will be determined on the following Monday, given the Good Friday holiday.
#StockMarket #DowJones #S&p500 #NasdaqComposite #FederalReserve #InvestorSentiment #Inflation
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/24/stock-market-today-live-updates.html
What investors should know about the U.S. easing vehicle emissions rules
==========
The Biden administration has decided to ease its timeline for all-electric vehicle adoption and give automakers more ways to meet new tailpipe emissions standards. The new Environmental Protection Agency rules aim to cut tailpipe emissions by 49% between model years 2027 and 2032, with a target for EVs to make up at least 35% of new vehicle sales by 2032. The standards are less ambitious than proposed rules released last year. Legacy automakers such as GM, Ford, and Stellantis are expected to benefit from the new regulations. Tesla and environmental groups criticized the standards. The new rules are seen as a win for traditional Detroit automakers and the United Auto Workers union. Stocks for Detroit automakers and U.S. hybrid leader closed higher following the announcement. The new standards could help Biden with key constituencies in the presidential election. The CAFE standards for 2027 to 2032 model-year vehicles are expected to be finalized later this year. The California Air Resources Board can set its own standards for emissions and fuel economy.
#VehicleEmissions #BidenAdministration #Automakers #ElectricVehicles #TailpipeEmissions #LegacyAutomakers #DetroitAutomakers #UnitedAutoWorkers #CafeStandards #CaliforniaAirResourcesBoard
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/23/ford-gm-stellantis-to-benefit-from-biden-emissions-rules.html
The Biden administration's real-time supply chain demand tracker is getting more deeply embedded in the economy
==========
The Biden administration's real-time supply chain demand tracker, called FLOW, is expanding to track inland freight ports, including rail terminal and warehouse end-destination data. The platform, launched two years ago, has partnered with companies including Walmart, Target, Nike, Home Depot, FedEx, Union Pacific, and DHL to track the supply chain as a cause of inflation in real time. The expansion of FLOW will capture and publish data on inland freight ports, providing a real-time snapshot of port and inland network congestion and monitoring unexpected cargo shifts. The data-sharing platform aims to create a line of sight across various trade routes and methods to make informed decisions and mitigate trade uncertainties. The White House economic analysis found that more than 80% of recent progress in lowering inflation can be attributed to the supply chain. FLOW is part of the Biden administration's response to supply chain disruptions caused by the Covid-19 pandemic and aims to improve the efficiency and timeliness of America's supply chain through data sharing and analysis.
#BidenAdministration #SupplyChain #Inflation #Flow #DataPartnership #FreightPorts #Logistics #TradeRoutes
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/20/biden-administration-is-expanding-its-real-time-supply-chain-tracker.html
EV euphoria is dead. Automakers trumpet consumer choice for U.S. car shoppers
==========
Automakers including Ford, General Motors, Mercedes-Benz, Volkswagen, Jaguar Land Rover, and Aston Martin are scaling back or delaying their electric vehicle (EV) plans. Despite lower-than-expected consumer demand for EVs, sales are still predicted to increase in the coming years. The industry is shifting towards a more mixed offering of vehicles, including gas-powered vehicles, hybrids, and fully electric options. Automakers are adjusting their EV targets and focusing on meeting federal standards for carbon emissions. The slower adoption of EVs has led to price cuts on several models. The Biden administration's fuel economy and emissions standards may be dialed back due to the slower pace of EV adoption. The outcome of the U.S. presidential election in November may also impact the future of EV regulations. European automakers face stricter EV regulations, with a current aim to ban sales of traditional fossil-fuel vehicles by 2035.
#ElectricVehicles #Automakers #ConsumerChoice #EvSales #EvAdoption #EvTargets #CarbonEmissions #FuelEconomyStandards #BidenAdministration #EuropeanRegulations
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/13/ev-euphoria-is-dead-automakers-trumpet-consumer-choice-in-us.html
5 things to know before the stock market opens Friday
==========
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite reached record highs ahead of Friday's jobs report. The February jobs numbers will be a market catalyst, with expectations of 198,000 jobs added. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stated that the central bank is close to being able to cut interest rates. Novo Nordisk's stock hit a record high, making it the 12th most valuable company in the world. Major grocers are competing to offer fast home grocery delivery to customers.
#StockMarket #JobsReport #FederalReserve #NovoNordisk #Grocers
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/08/5-things-to-know-before-the-stock-market-opens-friday.html
Super Tuesday live updates: Biden wins Virginia Democratic primary, Vermont too early to call, NBC News projects
==========
On Super Tuesday 2024, President Joe Biden wins the Democratic primary in Virginia, while the Republican primary in Virginia is too early to call. Former President Donald Trump is leading in the Republican presidential primary in Virginia. In North Carolina, over half of Republican primary voters do not think President Joe Biden legitimately won the 2020 presidential election. President Joe Biden's political operation had a record grassroots fundraising haul in February. Taylor Swift urges her fans to vote in their state's primaries. California, Texas, North Carolina, Alabama, and Arkansas hold primaries for key down-ballot races. The Democratic and Republican presidential primaries in Vermont are too early to call. Nikki Haley remains in the race for the Republican nomination and will stay in as long as she remains competitive. Former President Donald Trump's campaign is trying to recruit Nikki Haley's wealthiest supporters. First Lady Jill Biden is actively campaigning for President Joe Biden's reelection bid, while Melania Trump remains out of the spotlight. Mark Cuban backs Joe Biden and criticizes Donald Trump. Robert Kennedy Jr. touts support from independents and spreads COVID-19 vaccine misinformation. Super Tuesday sees a fierce battle for the open North Carolina attorney general seat. Donald Trump and Joe Biden are staying home on Super Tuesday. Crypto-backed groups spent $13 million on Super Tuesday races. Taylor Swift urges voters to cast ballots for candidates who most represent them. Super Tuesday voting begins in Vermont, with Joe Biden and Donald Trump looking to secure their leads. The California Senate race is already the state's most expensive ever.
#SuperTuesday #JoeBiden #Virginia #DonaldTrump #NorthCarolina #NikkiHaley #California #TaylorSwift #MarkCuban #RobertKennedyJr.
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/05/super-tuesday-elections-live-updates.html
Biden to launch joint FTC-DOJ task force to crack down on 'unfair and illegal pricing'
==========
President Joe Biden will launch a new strike force jointly led by the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) and Department of Justice (DOJ) to tackle 'unfair and illegal' corporate pricing. The task force aims to address the high costs of living for consumers. FTC Chair Lina Khan and Assistant Attorney General for Antitrust Jonathan Kanter will co-chair the strike force. The White House will convene the sixth formal meeting of its Competition Council to root out anti-competitive practices. The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau will release a final rule to cut credit card late fees, and the Agriculture Department will release protections for farmers against discriminatory processing practices. Biden's goal is to combat corporate pricing practices that contribute to the perception of a poor economy. However, questions remain about the legal authority regulators have to address aggressive pricing strategies. Despite signs of growing economic optimism, Biden still trails former President Donald Trump in hypothetical general election polls.
#JoeBiden #Ftc #Doj #Pricing #Consumer #Competition #Regulation #Economy
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/05/biden-to-launch-joint-ftc-doj-task-force-to-crack-down-on-unfair-and-illegal-pricing-.html
CNBC Daily Open: Americans' mood on the economy sinks
==========
Consumer confidence fell to 106.7 in February, down from a revised 110.9 in January, according to the Conference Board. The index measuring short-term expectations for income, business, and the job market fell to 79.8 from 81.5 in January. A reading under 80 often signals an upcoming recession. Rising concerns over jobs and the upcoming presidential elections contributed to the decline in consumer confidence. The fall in consumer confidence was broad-based, affecting most income groups and age demographics. The decline in public perception of the economy poses a challenge for President Joe Biden ahead of high-stakes elections this year.
#ConsumerConfidence #Economy #Recession #Jobs #PresidentialElections
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/28/cnbc-daily-open-americans-mood-on-the-economy-sinks.html
CNBC Daily Open: The U.S. economy seems to be holding up
==========
The U.S. economy appears to be holding up, with cost pressures for manufacturers and service businesses easing in February. S&P Global's composite index of purchase managers fell slightly to 51.4, indicating expansion in both the manufacturing and service sectors. Factory output grew at the fastest rate in ten months. However, Fed vice chair Philip Jefferson highlighted three key risks: resilient consumer spending, weakening employment, and geopolitical risks. Despite the positive signs, there is still a need to adapt to continuing risks.
#U.s.Economy #Manufacturing #ServiceSector #EconomicGrowth #Risks
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/23/cnbc-daily-open-the-us-economy-seems-to-be-holding-up.html
Healthy Returns: The launch of breakthrough Alzheimer's drug Leqembi is off to a slow start
==========
The launch of the Alzheimer's drug Leqembi is off to a slow start, with only about 2,000 patients currently on the drug, seven months after FDA approval. Biogen had set a target of treating 10,000 patients by the end of March. The complex process for patients to receive Leqembi, including securing an appointment with a neurologist and undergoing special tests, is a hurdle. Biogen estimates that 3,800 patients have signed up on registries to receive the drug. The company is also working on an injectable version of Leqembi. Leqembi brought in $7 million in fourth-quarter revenue and $10 million in full-year sales. Biogen is pinning its hopes on Leqembi to drive growth as it faces generic competition for its multiple sclerosis therapies.
#Alzheimer's #Leqembi #DrugLaunch #Biogen #FdaApproval
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/20/healthy-returns-alzheimers-drug-leqembi-launch-apple-vision-pro-nausea.html
CNBC Daily Open: U.S. consumers upbeat on the economy
==========
American consumers remain steady and upbeat on the economy despite sticky inflation, according to the University of Michigan survey for February. The consumer sentiment index rose 0.6 points to 79.6, indicating that consumers continue to feel more assured about the economy. The survey also showed that consumers expressed confidence in the slowdown in inflation and strength in labor markets. However, the survey revealed that inflation expectations for the year ahead inched up to 3% from 2.9% in January. This comes after a surprise pullback in consumer spending in January and mixed economic data that delivered a one-two punch for markets last week.
#U.s.Economy #ConsumerSentiment #Inflation #ConsumerSpending
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/20/cnbc-daily-open-us-consumers-upbeat-on-the-economy.html
CNBC Daily Open: U.S. consumers upbeat on the economy
==========
American consumers remain steady and upbeat on the economy despite sticky inflation, according to the University of Michigan survey for February. The consumer sentiment index rose 0.6 points to 79.6, indicating that consumers continue to feel more assured about the economy. The survey also showed that consumers expressed confidence in the slowdown in inflation and strength in labor markets. However, the survey revealed that inflation expectations for the year ahead inched up to 3% from 2.9% in January. This comes after a surprise pullback in consumer spending in January and mixed economic data that delivered a one-two punch for markets last week.
#U.s.Economy #ConsumerSentiment #Inflation #ConsumerSpending
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/20/cnbc-daily-open-us-consumers-upbeat-on-the-economy.html
Asia markets set to track Wall Street gains with S&P 500 hitting a record high overnight
==========
Asia-Pacific markets are expected to rise, following Wall Street's gains, with the S&P 500 reaching a new record high. The S&P/ASX 200 in Australia rose 0.91% at open, while futures for Hong Kong's Hang Seng index indicate a stronger start. The Nikkei 225 is set to extend gains after Japan entered a technical recession. Mainland China markets are closed for the Chinese New Year holidays. Investors are awaiting the Singapore 2024 budget. In the US, the S&P 500 climbed 0.58% to close at a new record high, the Nasdaq Composite added 0.30%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average traded 0.91% higher. Oil prices rallied on a weakening dollar after a weak demand forecast for 2024. Japan is seen as a major beneficiary of the artificial intelligence boom in Asia-Pacific.
#Asia-pacificMarkets #WallStreet #S&p500 #RecordHigh #Nikkei225 #Japan #ChineseNewYear #Singapore2024Budget #OilPrices #WeakeningDollar #DemandForecast #ArtificialIntelligenceBoom
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/16/asia-markets-set-to-track-wall-street-gains-with-sp-500-hitting-a-record-high-overnight.html
Stock futures open little changed as market rally seeks to regain momentum: Live updates
==========
Stock futures were flat on Wednesday evening as Wall Street looked to build on a modest rebound with key economic data on deck. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average ticked up just 3 points, or less than 0.1%. S&P 500 futures were little changed, and Nasdaq 100 futures dipped less than 0.1%. The S&P 500 recaptured the 5,000 level, closing slightly above it. Investors are weighing whether the Federal Reserve can bring down rates without derailing an economy that keeps surprising to the upside. Investors will get another update about the state of the U.S. economy on Thursday, with January retail sales and weekly unemployment claims data due out before the opening bell on Wall Street. Earnings season continues to paint a muddled picture of corporate America. Apple shares were down 5% in extended trading after the tech company reported disappointing iPhone sales and weak forward sales projections. Tesla jumped 7% after beating estimates on the top and bottom lines. Fast-food company McDonald's is scheduled to report earnings before the bell Thursday.
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/14/stock-market-today-live-updates.html
European markets set for cautious open with earnings, U.S. inflation in focus
==========
European markets are set for a cautious open as investors assess incoming corporate earnings reports and a key U.S. inflation print. The pan-European Stoxx 600 index closed the previous session 0.5% higher. On Tuesday, all eyes will turn to the U.S. January consumer price index, which will be closely watched by the Federal Reserve. Headline inflation is expected to come in at 0.2% month-on-month and 2.9% annually. Core prices are expected to have risen 0.3% in January and 3.7% from the previous year. The ZEW economic sentiment survey for Germany and the euro zone is also due. The regional Stoxx index has recorded a muted February so far, following a strong end to January. This week will see reporting from several major European businesses, including Commerzbank. The FTSE 100 is set to add around 8 points, Germany's DAX is expected to drop by around 41 points, and France's CAC 40 is seen around 10 points lower.
#EuropeanMarkets #Earnings #U.s.Inflation #Stoxx600 #ConsumerPriceIndex #FederalReserve #ZewEconomicSentimentSurvey #Ftse100 #Dax #Cac40
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/13/europe-markets-open-to-close-earnings-us-inflation-in-focus.html
European markets set for cautious open with earnings, U.S. inflation in focus
==========
European markets are set for a cautious open as investors assess incoming corporate earnings reports and a key U.S. inflation print. The pan-European Stoxx 600 index closed the previous session 0.5% higher. On Tuesday, all eyes will turn to the U.S. January consumer price index, which will be closely watched by the Federal Reserve. Headline inflation is expected to come in at 0.2% month-on-month and 2.9% annually. Core prices are expected to have risen 0.3% in January and 3.7% from the previous year. The ZEW economic sentiment survey for Germany and the euro zone is also due. The regional Stoxx index has recorded a muted February so far, following a strong end to January. This week will see reporting from several major European businesses, including Commerzbank. The FTSE 100 is set to add around 8 points, Germany's DAX is expected to drop by around 41 points, and France's CAC 40 is seen around 10 points lower.
#EuropeanMarkets #Earnings #U.s.Inflation #Stoxx600 #ConsumerPriceIndex #FederalReserve #ZewEconomicSentimentSurvey #Ftse100 #Dax #Cac40
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/13/europe-markets-open-to-close-earnings-us-inflation-in-focus.html
Dollar nears 150 yen ahead of US inflation test; bitcoin buoyant
==========
The dollar is approaching the 150 yen mark, which could trigger further action from Japanese officials. The yen has weakened against the dollar due to expectations of the Federal Reserve's easing cycle and the Bank of Japan's reluctance to aggressively hike rates. The US inflation report for January is expected to provide clarity on the Fed's rate cuts this year. The dollar has been benefiting from strong US economic data, while other currencies, particularly in Europe and Asia, have not shown the same level of strength. Bitcoin has risen above $50,000 for the first time in over two years, driven by expectations of rate cuts and anticipation of the halving event.
#Dollar #Yen #UsInflation #Bitcoin #ForeignExchangeRates
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/13/dollar-nears-150-yen-ahead-of-us-inflation-test-bitcoin-buoyant.html
Russia’s economy ‘in for very tough times’ despite improved growth outlook, IMF managing director says
==========
The head of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Kristalina Georgieva, warns that Russia's economy is still facing significant challenges despite an improved growth outlook. The IMF recently raised its forecast for Russia's economic growth from 1.1% to 2.6% for this year. However, Georgieva believes that the forecast figure does not tell the full story. She describes Russia's current production and consumption patterns as resembling those of the Soviet Union, with high levels of production and low levels of consumption. Russian defense spending has increased significantly since the war began, with military spending amounting to roughly 30% of fiscal expenditure. Additionally, more than 800,000 people have left Russia, including highly skilled workers in fields like IT and sciences. Georgieva believes that the outflow of people and reduced access to technology due to sanctions will contribute to tough times for the Russian economy.
#Russia #Economy #Imf #GrowthOutlook #DefenseSpending #Consumption #Production #Sanctions
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/12/russias-economy-in-for-very-tough-times-despite-improved-outlook-imf.html
Stock futures are little changed on Sunday night after a record week for the S&P 500: Live updates
==========
U.S. stock futures are flat on Sunday night after a record-setting week for the S&P 500. The S&P 500 closed above the 5,000 level for the first time, while the Nasdaq Composite added 1.25%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 0.14%. All three major indexes are coming off their fifth straight week of gains. In the week ahead, 61 names in the S&P 500 are set to report earnings, including gig economy stocks and Kraft Heinz. Traders will also watch for the release of the consumer price index (CPI) and producer price index (PPI) data. Jay Hatfield of Infrastructure Capital Advisors believes the S&P 500 could end the year at 5,500, corresponding to a potential 9% rise. In the near term, he expects the market to stall around 5,000 or 5,100 until there is greater clarity on rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank (ECB).
#StockMarket #S&p500 #NasdaqComposite #DowJonesIndustrialAverage #Earnings #GigEconomy #Cpi #Ppi #RateCuts
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/11/stock-market-today-live-updates.html
Treasury yields hold steady as investors weigh economic data, Fed rate outlook
==========
U.S. Treasury yields were little changed on Friday as investors weighed fresh economic data and considered the path ahead for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. The yield on the was flat at 4.1715% and the yield on the was steady at 4.4651%. Initial weekly jobless claims data released Thursday came in at 218,000 — less than the 220,000 economists expected. Fed officials have dashed investor hopes of a rate cut as early as March, with Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari anticipating two or three rate cuts in 2024. No key economic data is due Friday, but investors are looking ahead to major data releases next week including January's consumer price index.
#TreasuryYields #EconomicData #FederalReserve #InterestRates #JoblessClaims #RateCuts #ConsumerPriceIndex
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/09/us-treasurys-investors-weigh-economic-data-fed-rate-outlook.html
El-Erian, Krugman and other economists have very different opinions on China's struggling economy
==========
China's economy is facing headwinds including an ailing stock market, deflation, and a property crisis. Some economists, like Nobel laureate Paul Krugman, believe that China is entering an era of stagnation and disappointment, citing bad leadership, high youth unemployment, and a troubled real estate market. On the other hand, there are economists who remain optimistic about China's growth potential, such as the Institute of International Finance, which forecasts 5% growth in 2024. JPMorgan Private Bank also sees resilience in certain segments of the Chinese economy and believes that China's role as a global manufacturer will continue. The divide between China bulls and bears reflects the uncertainty surrounding China's economic future.
#China #Economy #StockMarket #Deflation #PropertyCrisis #PaulKrugman #InstituteOfInternationalFinance #JpmorganPrivateBank
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/09/el-erian-krugman-and-other-top-economists-voice-china-opinions.html
Budget office projects Biden green energy plan will cost much more than initial estimate
==========
The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the federal deficit will grow by $1 trillion over the next 10 years, with part of that growth driven by unexpectedly high costs related to President Joe Biden's goal of reorienting the U.S. economy towards greener energy. The CBO projects that the costs of clean vehicle tax credits and falling gas tax revenues will add $224 billion to the deficit over 10 years. The impact of new emissions standards, clean energy tax credits, and falling gas tax revenue will add $25 billion to the budget deficit this year and $428 billion over a decade. The CBO director, Philip Swagel, stated that the costs of energy-related tax provisions are much higher than originally projected due to new emissions standards, market developments, and actions taken by the administration. The CBO report also highlighted uncertainties about the long-term impact of green energy on the economy and the federal budget. Additionally, the report noted that the aging population and growth in federal healthcare costs per beneficiary are contributing to the deficit growth. The estimated deficit growth of $1 trillion over the next 10 years is slightly lower than the CBO's projection from last year. The decrease is attributed to a slowdown in the projected growth of government spending mandated by the Fiscal Responsibility Act of 2023. The CBO expects that approximately three-quarters of the deficit growth will be driven by the cost of paying interest on the national debt. The CBO report provides insight into the costs of Biden's green energy agenda and the challenges of implementing it.
#BudgetDeficit #GreenEnergy #JoeBiden #CongressionalBudgetOffice #EmissionsStandards #TaxCredits #GasTaxRevenue
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/07/bidens-clean-energy-plan-to-cost-far-more-than-initial-estimates.html
Appeals court denies Trump immunity in DC election case
==========
Former President Donald Trump does not have presidential immunity from prosecution on criminal charges related to his efforts to overturn his 2020 election loss, a federal appeals court unanimously ruled. The legal battle over Trump's immunity claim stems from the criminal election interference case being prosecuted by special counsel Jack Smith in U.S. District Court in Washington, D.C. Trump is charged in that case with four counts of crimes including conspiracy to defraud the United States and conspiracy to obstruct an official proceeding. He has pleaded not guilty. Trump is expected to quickly ask the Supreme Court to overturn the decision by the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit.
#DonaldTrump #PresidentialImmunity #CriminalCharges #ElectionInterference #SupremeCourt
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/06/trump-election-case-appeals-court-denies-ex-president-immunity.html
Powell insists the Fed will move carefully on rate cuts, with probably fewer than the market expects
==========
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell vowed in a "60 Minutes" interview aired Sunday that the central bank will proceed carefully with interest rate cuts this year. Powell expressed confidence in the economy, promised he wouldn't be swayed by this year's presidential election, and said the pain he feared from rate hikes never really materialized. Markets have been making aggressive bets on how many cuts the Fed would make this year. Current pricing is pointing to five quarter-percentage points reductions, though Powell backed the FOMC's December "dot plot" grid of individual members' estimates that pointed to just three moves. Powell was broadly optimistic about the economy, noting that inflation, while still above the Fed's target, has moderated while the jobs market is strong. In another matter, Powell reiterated that neither he nor his colleagues would be swayed by political pressure during this presidential election year.
#FederalReserve #JeromePowell #InterestRates #Economy #Inflation #PresidentialElection
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/04/powell-insists-the-fed-will-move-carefully-on-rate-cuts-with-probably-fewer-than-the-market-expects.html
'Don't blame the Fed' for high mortgage rates, says Zillow chief economist—the real culprit and his predictions for 2024
==========
The average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is currently at about 6.7%, down from 7.8% in late October but up from the 3% seen in 2021. Zillow economist Orphe Divounguy argues that the Federal Reserve's influence on mortgage rates is overstated and that mortgage rates depend on inflation, expectations of future inflation and economic growth. Divounguy predicts that mortgage rates will not decrease significantly in 2024 and that home prices will continue to increase, albeit at a slower pace. He advises potential homebuyers to get in the market now if they can afford it, as waiting for mortgage rates to fall may indicate serious economic troubles.
#MortgageRates #FederalReserve #Zillow #HousingMarket #Economy
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/02/zillow-economist-mortgage-rate-predictions-for-2024.html
S&P 500 rises after strong tech earnings, gains kept in check following jobs report: Live updates
==========
The S&P 500 rose 0.2% after strong tech earnings, but gains were limited due to a spike in Treasury yields following a better-than-expected jobs report. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 146 points, or 0.3%, while the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.7%. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield jumped 15 basis points to 4% after the US economy added 353,000 jobs in January, surpassing estimates of 185,000. Wages also expanded by 4.5% year over year, exceeding the forecast of 4.1%. The strong jobs report suggests a robust labor market and may support growth for stocks. Facebook's stock rose 17% after beating expectations and announcing its first-ever dividend payout and a $50 billion share buyback program. Chevron and Exxon reported earnings that beat expectations, but their profits declined from the previous year due to impairment charges and lower oil prices. Chevron's stock rose 1% in premarket trading, while Exxon was down 1.15%. European stocks opened higher, led by autos, while Australia's producer price index rose 4.1% year on year in Q4 2023. Aozora Bank shares tumbled to a three-year low due to exposure to US office loans, and South Korea's January inflation slowed for the third straight month to 2.8%. The major US averages are up for the year, with the S&P 500 up 2.86%, the Nasdaq Composite up 2.33%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 2.2%.
#StockMarket #S&p500 #TechEarnings #JobsReport #TreasuryYields #DowJonesIndustrialAverage #NasdaqComposite #10-yearTreasuryYield #UsEconomy #Wages #LaborMarket #Facebook #Chevron #Exxon #EuropeanStocks #Autos #AustraliaProducerPrices #AozoraBank #SouthKoreaInflation
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/01/stock-market-today-live-updates.html
Watch live: Fed chief Powell speaks after central bank holds rates steady yet again
==========
The Federal Reserve has left interest rates unchanged in January. It's the fourth consecutive time that the central bank has decided to keep steady on rate policy. Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that a rate cut at the March meeting is unlikely. The Fed is leaving its options open as it assesses the path ahead for interest rates and when to implement cuts. Powell mentioned that supply chain and labor market healing have helped bring inflation down. The Fed is looking for more evidence that falling inflation is sustainable before cutting rates. Powell wants to see more good data and a continuation of the good data seen so far. The Fed believes that its policy rate is likely at its peak for this tightening cycle. The FOMC has not yet begun to consider cutting rates. The central bank may need more signs that inflation is easing before cutting rates. The Fed is not yet prepared to reduce rates and wants greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2%. The Fed's rate decision chilled investors, and stocks slipped slightly. The S&P 500 lost 0.9%, and the Nasdaq Composite was off 1.4%.
#FederalReserve #InterestRates #RateCuts #Inflation #JeromePowell
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/31/fed-meeting-today-live-updates.html
Cramer's post-earnings advice on Microsoft and Alphabet declines — wait on one, buy the other
==========
Jim Cramer advises waiting on Microsoft and buying Alphabet after their post-earnings declines. The CNBC Investing Club wants to see a pullback before adding to their mega-cap holding. They also mention a biotech holding that is experiencing a 'resurrection' and a new position in a health-care stock. Jim Cramer previews earnings from a medical equipment holding. The article provides behind-the-scenes insights into the CNBC Investing Club's decision-making process.
#JimCramer #CnbcInvestingClub #Microsoft #Alphabet #Earnings #Biotech #Health-careStock #MedicalEquipment
https://www.cnbc.com/investingclub/morning-meeting/
Oddbean new post about login | logout
Notes by CNBC | export