The Fed would only cut rates to help the U.S. service its soaring debt, fund manager says
==========

Fund manager Freddie Lait believes that the Federal Reserve would only cut rates to help the U.S. cover interest payments for the national debt. Lait argues that there is no economic rationale for cutting rates and that the current level of interest rates is sufficient to balance inflation and growth. He suggests that the U.S. government's inability to afford higher rates is the only reason the Fed might be tempted to cut. The U.S. government is facing increased interest payments on its debt, with federal spending on interest expected to climb to $870 billion this year. Lait believes that the exponential growth in government spending on debt will pose a problem for the next U.S. president. He suggests that the solution would be to either live with higher yields or reduce government spending. Lait also notes that the level of U.S. national debt is not the issue, but rather the growth in interest payments, which he finds staggering.

#FederalReserve #InterestRates #UsNationalDebt

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/01/fund-manager-says-there-is-no-economic-rationale-for-fed-rate-cuts.html


GDP increased at a 1.6% rate in the first quarter, less than expected
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The U.S. economy grew at a slower pace than expected in the first quarter of 2024, with gross domestic product (GDP) increasing at a 1.6% annualized rate, lower than the anticipated 2.4%. Consumer spending rose by 2.5%, down from a 3.3% gain in the previous quarter. The personal consumption expenditures price index, a key inflation measure, increased by 3.4% for the quarter, its largest gain in a year. The price index for GDP rose at a 3.1% rate. The news led to a slump in markets, with Dow Jones futures falling over 400 points. Treasury yields also rose. Investors are now expecting the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, with futures pricing indicating one rate cut in 2024.

#Gdp #EconomicGrowth #Inflation #FederalReserve #InterestRates

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/25/gdp-q1-2024-increased-at-a-1point6percent-rate.html


Why the Fed keeping rates higher for longer may not be such a bad thing
==========

Higher interest rates are not having a substantially negative impact on the economy. The Fed is not expected to cut rates in the near future. The higher-for-longer stance is due to stickier inflation. The impact of higher rates on profit margins and consumer behavior will be revealed during the current earnings season. Financial markets have largely held up despite the higher-rate landscape. Higher rates can be a good sign if associated with growth. The Fed's active monetary policy may not have as much influence on the economy as it thinks. Rates too high or too low can distort financial markets and undermine the economy. The national debt has exploded since Covid hit, making the Fed's higher rates less noticeable. Credit card delinquency rates have climbed to the highest level in 12 years. The Fed may have to lower rates in the future due to the crushing effect of high rates on low-income-earning Americans.

#FederalReserve #InterestRates #Economy

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/24/why-the-fed-keeping-rates-higher-for-longer-may-not-be-such-a-bad-thing.html


Asia markets climb as Wall Street continues rally; Australia inflation numbers expected
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Asia-Pacific markets extend gains as Wall Street continues rally; Australia's consumer price index expected to rise 3.5% for Q1; S&P/ASX 200 rose 0.21% ahead of CPI reading; Nikkei 225 popped 1.27% and Topix was up 0.71%; South Korea's climbed 1.85% with Samsung Electronics gaining 3%; Hang Seng index futures point to a stronger open; Dow Jones climbed 0.69%, S&P 500 gained 1.2%, and Nasdaq Composite saw largest gain of 1.59%; Goldman Sachs' Kostin expects higher earnings this year despite margin pressures; JPMorgan Chase CEO Dimon warns of 'stagflation'; US crude oil falls to lowest level since March; SoftBank to invest nearly $1 billion in AI push with Nvidia's chips.

#AsiapacificMarkets #WallStreet #AustraliaInflation #Earnings #MarginPressures #Stagflation #UsCrudeOil #Softbank #Nvidia

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/24/asia-markets.html


Asia markets extend gains ahead of business activity figures from around the region
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Asia-Pacific markets extended gains from Monday as tech shares rebounded on Wall Street. Australia's composite purchasing managers index hit a two-year high at 53.6. Japan and India's PMI numbers will be released later Tuesday. S&P/ASX 200 started the day up 0.32% after the PMI release. Nikkei 225 popped 0.8% at the open, while the broad-based Topix was up 0.66%. South Korea's KOSPI climbed 0.2%, and the small-cap Kosdaq rose 0.62%. Futures for Hong Kong's Hang Seng index stood at 16,681, pointing to a weaker open compared to the HSI's close of 16,511.69. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite both snapped six-day losing streaks, gaining 0.87% and 1.11% respectively, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 0.67%. U.S. crude prices slipped after Iran said it will not escalate the conflict with Israel. Australia's business activity in April expanded at its fastest clip in 24 months, according to flash figures from S&P Global. The country's composite purchasing managers index came in at 53.6, compared to 53.3 in March. Manufacturing PMI climbed to 49.9 from 47.3, just shy of the 50 mark that separates expansion from contraction, while services PMI slipped slightly to 54.2 from 54.4.

#AsiapacificMarkets #BusinessActivity #TechShares #WallStreet #PurchasingManagersIndex #Pmi #S&pGlobal #Australia #Japan #India #S&p500 #NasdaqComposite #DowJonesIndustrialAverage #CrudePrices #Iran #Israel

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/23/asia-markets-live-updates-australia-japan-and-india-pmi-data.html


Russia warns the world is on the brink of a 'direct military clash' between nuclear powers
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Russia's Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov warns of a potential 'direct military clash' between Russia and Western nuclear powers. The warning comes after the US House of Representatives passed a $61 billion foreign aid package for Ukraine, which Russia reacted angrily to. Russian forces have been making gains in the Donbas region, and Ukraine is in need of more air defense systems, artillery, and ammunition. Lavrov also criticizes the support of nuclear powers France, the US, and the UK for Ukraine, calling it a serious strategic risk for Russia. The Kremlin says any move by the US to seize frozen Russian assets would be illegal and set a dangerous precedent. The aid package for Ukraine has been passed by the House of Representatives and now proceeds to the Senate for approval. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy expresses gratitude for the aid package and urges the Senate to pass it quickly. The aid is crucial for Ukraine, whose forces have been rationing their usage of shells due to shortages of supplies. Russia claims to have taken control of the village of Novomykhailivka, the second advance it has announced in two days. The Russian gains highlight the urgency for Ukraine to receive the new US military aid. The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute reports that global military spending reached a record high of $2.44 trillion in 2023, with Ukraine and Russia topping the list for countries that increased their military spending the most. The head of Ukrainian military intelligence warns of a difficult period on the front in mid-May and early June when Russia is expected to launch a new and wider offensive. The article also mentions that the arena of arms control has become a frequent bone of contention between the West and Russia, with several arms treaties between the US and Russia abandoned or close to collapse.

#Russia #Ukraine #NuclearPowers #ForeignAid #MilitaryClash #DonbasRegion #AirDefenseSystems #Artillery #Ammunition #FrozenAssets #UsSenate #MilitarySpending #Offensive #ArmsControl

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/22/ukraine-war-live-updates-latest-news-on-russia-and-the-war-in-ukraine.html


Treasury yields rise as investors look to key data in week ahead
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U.S. Treasury yields rose as investors looked to economic data in the week ahead that could provide fresh hints about the state of the economy and outlook for interest rates. At 3:19 a.m. ET, the yield on the [10-year Treasury note](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/?symbol=US10Y) was up by over two basis points to 4.6414%. The [30-year Treasury bond](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/?symbol=US30Y) yield was last at 4.9928% after rising by more than two basis points. Several key data points are slated for the week, including the personal consumption expenditures price index for March, which is due Friday. Markets are widely expecting interest rate cuts not to happen until later than expected, following recent economic data that reflected sticky inflation and resilience from the economy, as well as comments from Fed officials. Policymakers including Chairman Jerome Powell last week indicated that there was no urgency for rates to be cut and that the timeline for rate cuts would depend on how the economy develops. The Fed has now entered the so-called blackout period before its next meeting.

#TreasuryYields #EconomicData #InterestRates

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/22/us-treasury-yields-as-investors-look-to-key-data-in-week-ahead.html


This is the best U.S. city for remote workers—it has a population of 68,000
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Portland, Maine is ranked as the best U.S. city for remote workers according to Remote.com. The city has a population of 68,000 and offers a median household income of $71,000, with rent at about $1,400 a month. The homes in Portland are valued at about $412,000, and 58% of residents are college grads. The ranking considers factors such as quality of life, safety, internet infrastructure, travel, and current economic factors. Other top U.S. cities for remote work include Honolulu, Hawaii; Des Moines, Iowa; New York, New York; and Concord, New Hampshire. The top three cities globally for remote workers are Madrid, Spain; Madeira, Portugal; and Toronto, Canada. Portland's distinction as the top U.S. city for remote work is attributed to its robust infrastructure, welcoming community, and overall quality of life. The state of Maine offers economic incentives such as a student loan repayment program and has a growing immigrant population. Other top cities for remote work are described as walkable, green, and nicely designed for residents. Midwestern cities like Des Moines, Topeka, and Hamilton are praised for their remote-friendly incentive programs, quality of life, and affordable living costs.

#RemoteWork #Portland,Maine #UsCities #QualityOfLife #EconomicIncentives

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/21/the-best-us-cities-for-remote-workers-according-to-remotecom.html


‘Big change' in global growth is bullish for commodities including copper, says VanEck CEO
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VanEck CEO Jan van Eck suggests that investors should consider commodities due to a "big change" in global growth, with China being a key driver in the expansion. Van Eck highlights the positive momentum of copper as a sign of global economic growth and energy prices. He also sees U.S. government spending as a bullish catalyst for the commodities trade. VanEck's exchange-traded funds, including the VanEck Gold Miners ETF and VanEck Oil Refiners ETF, have seen gains of 10% and 9% respectively year to date. The S&P GSCI Index Spot, which tracks commodities, is up 10% so far this year.

#Commodities #Copper #GlobalGrowth #China #Vaneck

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/20/big-change-in-global-growth-is-bullish-for-commodities-vaneck-ceo.html


6 portfolio stock earnings and the Fed's favorite inflation gauge dominate the week ahead
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The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq extended their declines to six straight sessions, their worst losing streaks in more than 1½ years. The Nasdaq sank 2% on Friday as Netflix dropped nearly 11% post-earnings and Club stock Nvidia fell 10%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed modestly higher Friday, led by an over 6% increase in American Express following earnings. Fed chief Jerome Powell said he sees a 'lack of further progress' this year on inflation. Fresh economic data and six Club stock earnings will take center stage in the week ahead. The main event will be the release of March personal spending and income data, including the PCE price index and the core PCE price index. The consensus estimate is for a headline PCE increase of 2.6% year over year and a core PCE gain of 2.7%. Thursday brings the government's first read on U.S. economic growth in the first quarter, with GDP expected to have advanced at a 2.2% annualized rate. The state of the housing market is also in focus next week, with the March new home sales and pending home sales reports. Six Club names set to report next week include Danaher, Meta Platforms, Ford, Honeywell, Microsoft, and Alphabet. Other notable companies reporting include Verizon Communications, General Motors, Tesla, Visa, Boeing, AT&T, and Exxon Mobil.

#StockMarket #Earnings #Inflation #EconomicData #PcePriceIndex #CorePcePriceIndex #Gdp #HousingMarket

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/20/6-club-stock-earnings-and-pce-inflation-dominate-the-week-ahead.html


Cramer says two recent earnings reports may indicate a slowdown is brewing — but not enough for a Fed cut
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CNBC's Jim Cramer suggests that disappointing quarters from trucking company J.B. Hunt and real estate investment trust Prologis may be a sign of a weakening U.S. economy due to elevated interest rates. However, Cramer believes it is still too early for the Federal Reserve to start cutting rates. He acknowledges that companies in economically sensitive industries like trucking and warehousing did show less-than-ideal earnings results. Cramer maintains that the economy is too strong for rate cuts and advises investors not to expect the Fed to start easing rates. The Federal Reserve Chair, Jerome Powell, recently stated that inflation has not declined enough for the central bank to consider rate cuts in the near future. Prologis and J.B. Hunt did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

#JimCramer #JbHunt #Prologis #FederalReserve #Economy #InterestRates #TruckingIndustry #RealEstateInvestmentTrust

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/18/cramer-says-2-reports-could-mark-slowdown-but-not-enough-for-fed-cut.html


Biden admin, U.S. ports prep for cyberattacks as nationwide infrastructure is targeted
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The Biden administration and U.S. ports are preparing for cyberattacks as the nation's infrastructure is increasingly targeted. Google's cybersecurity firm Mandiant released a report linking Russian hackers to an attack on a water filtration plant in Texas. The largest ports in the U.S. are also at risk, and cybersecurity officers and port executives held a call to discuss security issues, including Chinese-made cranes that have received government scrutiny. The Port of Los Angeles stopped 750 million hacking attempts in 2023. Anne Neuberger, Deputy National Security Advisor for Cyber and Emerging Technology, urged ports to encrypt their data, patch vulnerabilities, and have a well-trained cyber team. The executive order signed by President Biden in February aims to strengthen the cybersecurity of U.S. ports. The security of Chinese-manufactured cranes is a key concern, as over 80% of all cranes in U.S. ports are made in China. Foreign hackers, including those from China and Iran, are increasingly targeting U.S. infrastructure. The American Association of Port Authorities has said there is no evidence to support claims about Chinese-manufactured crane cyber vulnerabilities. The Coast Guard is evaluating the cranes, and public comments on the executive order's rulemaking will end on April 22. It is important to identify critical safety and business systems at ports and have a continuous diagnosis of operations and networks. The Port of Los Angeles has a Cyber Security Operations Center and achieved ISO 27001 information security management certification in 2015. The port's activity is picking up, with a 19% improvement in container volumes in the first quarter of 2023.

#BidenAdministration #Cyberattacks #UsPorts #NationwideInfrastructure #Cybersecurity #RussianHackers #WaterFiltrationPlant #PortOfLosAngeles #ChinesemadeCranes #ExecutiveOrder #ChinesemanufacturedCranes #ForeignHackers #China #Iran #AmericanAssociationOfPortAuthorities #CoastGuard #Iso27001 #ContainerVolumes

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/17/biden-admin-ports-prep-for-cyberattacks-as-us-infrastructure-targeted.html


CEO shares her No. 1 simple tactic for getting people to listen to her—you may remember it from grade school
==========

Talia Fox, CEO of Washington, D.C.-based executive coaching firm KUSI Global, shares her simple tactic for getting people to listen to her. She uses a five-point outline, including an attention-grabbing introduction, three core talking points, and a compelling conclusion. This structure can be used for presentations or even when asking for a promotion. In addition to the outline, Fox emphasizes the importance of exuding confidence through posture, voice tone, and eye contact. To calm nerves before important conversations, activities like walking, meditating, and positive affirmations can be helpful. The article also mentions a new online course offered by CNBC on earning passive income.

#Communication #Presentation #Confidence #Promotion #PassiveIncome

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/16/how-to-get-people-to-listen-to-you-ceo-shares-best-simple-tactic.html


How to manage your money in your 40s, according to CFPs: As your investments grow, 'mistakes can get bigger' too
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Certified financial planners recommend four steps for managing money in your 40s. First, open a taxable brokerage account to have flexibility in investing for short-term goals. Second, evaluate your investments and ensure they are positioned correctly as mistakes can have bigger consequences as portfolios grow. Third, check your insurance coverage, including life insurance and personal umbrella liability insurance. Finally, resist lifestyle inflation and find a balance between wants and needs to save for the future.

#MoneyManagement #FinancialPlanning #Investing #Insurance #LifestyleInflation

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/16/how-to-manage-your-money-in-your-40s-according-to-cfps.html


Op-ed: Financial literacy is the civil rights issue of this generation
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Financial literacy is the civil rights issue for this generation, writes entrepreneur and Operation Hope founder John Hope Bryant. Financial literacy is arguably the least expensive and most effective tool for community economic development in existence today. Economic growth provides jobs, increases wages, and leads to a higher standard of living for its citizens. However, the engine for economic growth is not simply having more businesses or more products. It is the increased participation of people within the economy. Research shows that financial security increases with financial education. Financial literacy plays a pivotal role in transforming one's relationship with money, understanding investments, compound interest, savings, and navigating the complex world of credits and debits. Accessible funding for Black and brown entrepreneurs, financial wellbeing benefits in the workplace, and conversations about private sector work within communities are also crucial for achieving financial equality. By raising credit scores and providing financial education, communities can experience profound transformations in terms of life expectancy, education levels, homeownership rates, and crime rates. Financial literacy is a fundamental right that should be accessible to all individuals.

#FinancialLiteracy #CivilRights #EconomicGrowth #FinancialEducation #CreditScores #Entrepreneurs #WorkplaceBenefits #PrivateSector #Equality

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/16/why-financial-literacy-is-the-civil-rights-issue-of-this-generation.html


3 of our stocks report earnings next week. Here's what we want to see from each
==========

All three major averages posted losses in a volatile week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average led the way down, tanking more than 500 points on Friday alone, and ended the week with a 2.7% decline. The broad-based S & P 500 index dropped 1.6%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite dipped 0.5%. The decline was caused by a slightly hotter-than-expected March consumer price index (CPI) report, which pushed up Treasury bond yields and forced investors to reconsider the number of interest-rate cuts this year from the Federal Reserve. The CME FedWatch Tool indicates that the best odds are for two cuts this year. The upcoming week will be driven by earnings reports from three stocks: Morgan Stanley, Abbott Labs, and Procter & Gamble. For Morgan Stanley, investors will focus on the margins in wealth management and a regulatory probe into that division. Abbott Labs is expected to show strong organic growth, particularly in its nutrition, established pharmaceuticals, medical devices, and diagnostics divisions. Procter & Gamble is expected to show growth in all key segments, with overall organic sales rising 3.5% over last year. Other notable macroeconomic reports to monitor include March retail sales, housing starts and building permits, and the March industrial production and capacity utilization report.

#StockMarket #Earnings #DowJones #S&p500 #Nasdaq #InterestRates #FederalReserve #MorganStanley #AbbottLabs #Procter&Gamble #RetailSales #HousingStarts #IndustrialProduction

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/13/3-of-our-stocks-report-earnings-heres-what-we-want-to-see-from-each.html


Treasury yields fall as investors weigh state of economy
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U.S. Treasury yields declined as investors considered the state of the economy after the release of inflation data and weighed the path ahead for interest rates. The yield on the [specific Treasury bond] was down by over three basis points to 4.5399%. The [specific Treasury bond] yield was last at 4.9200% after falling by more than four basis points. The March producer price index came in below expectations, easing concerns about persistent inflationary pressures. The possibility of no rate cuts at all this year is being considered by some investors. The Federal Reserve has said that its decision-making on rate cuts will be data-led and is waiting for inflation to move lower before easing monetary policy. Import and export prices, as well as fresh consumer sentiment insights for April, will be released on Friday.

#TreasuryYields #Economy #InflationData #InterestRates #FederalReserve

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/12/us-treasury-yields-as-investors-weigh-state-of-economy.html


Inflation has investors on edge. But some sectors have deflated
==========

Some segments of the U.S. economy have deflated over the past year, according to the consumer price index. The cost of household goods, travel, and some grocery items like apples have fallen. However, CPI data for March came in hotter than expected, suggesting that the fight to rein in consumer prices may take longer than expected. Categories of goods and services that have deflated include physical goods like cars, furniture, and appliances, as well as some food and energy-related products. The downward pressure of deflation has tamed in recent months as supply-and-demand dynamics have normalized. The demand for home goods has diminished, leading to falling prices for household furnishings, laundry equipment, furniture, bedding, dishes, flatware, toys, outdoor equipment, and sporting goods. The U.S. dollar's strength relative to other global currencies has helped rein in prices for goods. Prices for new and used vehicles have also deflated slightly over the past year, as have travel costs for airfare, hotels, and rental cars. Grocery prices have come to a standstill, with some food categories like ham, cheese, and coffee declining. However, deflationary dynamics may only happen on paper, as quality improvements over time in electronics show up as price declines in the CPI data.

#Inflation #Deflation #ConsumerPrices #UsEconomy

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/11/inflation-has-investors-on-edge-but-some-sectors-have-deflated.html


Trump slams Biden for ‘raging' inflation after hotter-than-expected March price report
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Former President Donald Trump criticized President Biden for persistent inflation after March's consumer price index (CPI) came in higher than expected. Consumer prices rose 0.4% in March, slightly above economists' expectations of 0.3%, pushing the year-over-year increase to 3.5%. Trump accused the Federal Reserve of protecting Biden and stated that inflation is back and raging. Biden responded by calling on corporations to use record profits to reduce prices and blamed big corporations and Republicans for the high costs of living. The economy is a key issue for voters as both Biden and Trump claim that Americans were financially better off under their respective administrations. The CPI report could signal inflation trending back up and may impact the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates. Biden's economic gains are being overshadowed by sticky inflation and a large budget deficit. The U.S. economy is currently doing well by metrics like GDP and unemployment, but inflation and the budget deficit remain challenges for the White House. Consumer confidence is showing signs of optimism, but polling indicates that Americans have a positive view of the economy under Trump.

#DonaldTrump #JoeBiden #Inflation #ConsumerPriceIndex #FederalReserve #Corporations #Republicans #Economy #Gdp #Unemployment

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/10/trump-slams-biden-for-inflation-after-hotter-than-expected-cpi-report.html


China needs a narrative that house prices are going to rise, Nomura's Koo says
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China needs to convince people that home prices are on their way up in order for economic activity to pick up, according to Richard Koo, chief economist at Nomura Research Institute. Koo stated that for people to come back and borrow money, there needs to be a narrative that says the bottom of the prices has been reached and prices will start going up. However, it is not clear whether prices have reached an actual bottom yet. Koo also mentioned that Chinese officials have said that real estate remains in a period of 'adjustment' and that the country has been emphasizing other sectors such as manufacturing and new energy vehicles. China's economy officially grew by 5.2% in 2023, and Beijing has set a target of around 5% growth for 2024. Chinese authorities have been reluctant to embark on large-scale support for the economy due to the view that its prior stimulus program was a failure. Koo believes that China should stimulate its economy to avoid a balance sheet recession and cut that support once growth reaches 12%.

#China #HousingMarket #EconomicGrowth #StimulusProgram #BalanceSheetRecession

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/10/nomuras-koo-china-needs-a-narrative-that-house-prices-are-going-to-rise.html


Asia markets poised for mixed open ahead of Japan corporate inflation data and New Zealand rate decision
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Asia-Pacific markets are set for a mixed open ahead of Japan's corporate inflation figures for March and rate decisions from New Zealand and Thailand's central banks. Japan's corporate inflation rate is expected to accelerate to 0.8%. South Korea's markets are closed Wednesday for parliamentary elections. In Australia, futures for the S&P/ASX 200 point to a third straight day of gains. However, Japan's Nikkei 225 is set to fall. Futures for Hong Kong's Hang Seng index point to a stronger open. Overnight in the U.S., the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed just below the flatline, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite posted gains. Twelve S&P 500 stocks hit fresh highs on Tuesday, including Alphabet and Freeport-McMoRan. Boeing and Norfolk Southern were among the biggest movers during midday trading. The article also includes information on dividend stocks and overbought global stocks.

#AsiapacificMarkets #Japan #CorporateInflation #NewZealand #RateDecision #SouthKorea #Australia #S&p/asx200 #Nikkei225 #HongKong #HangSengIndex #DowJonesIndustrialAverage #S&p500 #NasdaqComposite #S&p500Stocks #Alphabet #Freeportmcmoran #Boeing #NorfolkSouthern #DividendStocks #OverboughtGlobalStocks

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/10/asia-markets-live-updates.html


The 'Buffett indicator' is a red flag for markets, but 'this is not a bubble,' says investing pro
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The 'Buffett indicator' compares the total market capitalization of all U.S. stocks with the quarterly output of the U.S. economy. If stocks are at about 70% of GDP, they're undervalued, but if they're about double the size of the economy, it's considered a major red flag. Currently, the ratio is at about 190%, the highest mark in two years. However, Liz Young, head of investment strategy at SoFi, believes that this is not a bubble and that the market is in extended valuations but not outrageous. The current stock market rally has been driven by earnings growth, particularly from large, high-quality tech companies. GDP growth remains strong, the consumer continues to spend, and earnings growth has been healthy. However, there are some cracks in the economic façade, such as the longest-ever inversion of the yield curve and a marked uptick in gold prices, which indicate that some investors are losing confidence in the economy. The stock market outlook for the remainder of the year is more bullish, but investors should expect some pullbacks. Diversified stock portfolios will continue to benefit from corporate earnings growth and U.S. economic output. It is recommended to focus on highly profitable companies with little debt.

#BuffettIndicator #StockMarket #Bubble #Valuation #EarningsGrowth #Gdp #EconomicIndicators

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/09/what-warren-buffetts-favorite-indicator-means-for-your-money.html


India's market cap can ‘easily' jump ten-fold in the next two decades, economist says
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India's market capitalization can easily grow to $40 trillion in the next 20 years, driven by stronger investor confidence and robust economic growth, according to analysts. The country's market is currently ranked the fourth largest in the world, valued at over $4.6 trillion. Sujan Hajra, chief economist at Anand Rathi Share and Stock Brokers, believes India can hit $40 trillion by that time, citing strong economic growth and a stable currency. Manish Chokhani, director of investment services firm Enam Holdings, is even more bullish and predicts Indian markets could surge to $60 trillion in the next two decades. India's benchmark Nifty 50 index soared 20% in 2023. India's GDP grew 7.2% for financial year 2023 and is estimated to grow 7.6% in financial year 2024. China's economic growth has not led to stock market appreciation in recent years. India has the largest number of listed companies globally at over 6,000. Despite high valuation multiples, analysts recommend India as part of an investor's core allocation, with a focus on large cap stocks and the financial services sector.

#India #MarketCap #Economy #InvestorConfidence #EconomicGrowth #StockMarket

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/09/indias-market-cap-can-easily-jump-ten-fold-in-the-next-two-decades-economist-says.html


Resilience of U.S. economy will 'play out longer term,' analyst says
==========

Zoe Gillespie, divisional director in investment management at RBC Brewin Dolphin, discusses the state of the U.S. economy and how it could affect stock markets in the U.S. and Europe.

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2024/04/08/resilience-of-us-economy-will-play-out-longer-term-analyst-says.html


The U.S. economy still faces a recession risk: Gary Shilling
==========

Financial analyst Gary Shilling warns that the U.S. economy still faces a risk of a deeper economic downturn despite avoiding a recession so far. Shilling points to small businesses cutting back on employment and other areas as a sign of economic sensitivity. However, the labor market has remained strong, which has delayed a recession. Shilling is watching for signs of a slowing labor market, such as wage gains, quits, and service inflation. The Federal Reserve plans to cut interest rates at least three times in 2024 but wants to ensure inflation is under control. Shilling believes the Fed is in no rush to cut rates as long as employment remains strong.

#UsEconomy #RecessionRisk #GaryShilling #SmallBusinesses #LaborMarket #FederalReserve #InterestRates

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/08/the-us-economy-still-faces-a-recession-risk-gary-shilling.html


CNBC Daily Open: What rate hike?
==========

Stocks in the U.S. closed out a losing week after the Dow Jones Industrial Average suffered its worst session in over a year on Thursday. However, traders managed to brush off a sharp jump in yields on Friday after a stronger-than-expected jobs report. The S&P 500 gained 1.1% during the session, while the Dow climbed 307 points, or 0.8%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite rose 1.24%. U.S. crude was up 4.5% for the week while gold added 4.2%. The big market move was in the bond markets where yields suddenly climbed after the closely watched nonfarm payrolls data for March. U.S. nonfarm payrolls numbers showed job creation in March easily topped market expectations, increasing by 303,000 for the month. The unemployment rate edged lower to 3.8%. A magnitude 4.8 earthquake shook the northeastern U.S. on Friday morning. Fund manager Barbara Doran revealed a selection of her favorite stocks and argued that investors are reluctant to embrace this current bull market. The Fed may move later than June and markets will remain on edge for a few months longer.

#StockMarket #BondMarket #NonfarmPayrolls #Earthquake #BarbaraDoran

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/08/cnbc-daily-open-what-rate-hike.html


Asia markets poised to rebound ahead of central bank decisions, U.S. and China inflation data this week
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Asia-Pacific markets are expected to rebound ahead of central bank decisions this week, including the Bank of Korea, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, the Bank of Thailand, and the central bank of the Philippines. S&P Global expects all four banks to hold their rates steady. U.S. and China inflation numbers will also be in focus this week, with China releasing trade data for March on Friday. Futures for the S&P/ASX 200 and Nikkei 225 point to a stronger open. Hang Seng index futures also indicate a stronger open. In the U.S., all three major indexes regained ground after a stronger than expected jobs report, with the Dow Jones climbing 0.8%, the S&P 500 gaining 1.11%, and the Nasdaq Composite advancing 1.24%. The pan-European Stoxx 600 index is around 7.5% higher year-to-date and up over 15% over the last 12 months. Crude oil futures may have more room to rally as the commodity has formed a bullish chart pattern known as a 'golden cross.' The 50-day moving average for U.S. crude is slightly outpacing its 200-day moving average, and Brent's 50-day moving average is above its 200-day moving average. All sectors within the S&P 500 traded higher on Friday, with communication services and information technology leading the gains. The U.S. economy added 303,000 jobs in March, surpassing expectations.

#AsiapacificMarkets #CentralBankDecisions #InflationData #BankOfKorea #ReserveBankOfNewZealand #BankOfThailand #CentralBankOfThePhilippines #S&p/asx200 #Nikkei225 #HangSengIndex #DowJones #S&p500 #NasdaqComposite #Stoxx600 #CrudeOilFutures #GoldenCross #S&p500Sectors #UsJobsReport

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/08/asia-markets-live-updates.html


Stock futures rise in overnight trading following the market's losing week: Live updates
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Stock futures rose in overnight trading Sunday after the market suffered a down week as 2024's rally took a breather. Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 95 points. S&P 500 futures gained 0.2% and Nasdaq 100 futures advanced 0.3%. The 30-stock Dow fell 2.3% last week, posting its worst weekly performance since March 2023. The S&P 500 declined nearly 1% during the period, its biggest weekly loss since early January. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite dipped 0.8%, suffering its fourth negative week in five. The market did end last week on a positive note, however, after a stronger-than-expected jobs report Friday. For further clarity on how successful the Federal Reserve's fight against inflation has been, investors are eagerly waiting for readings for March consumer and producer price indexes later this week. Elon Musk announced that Tesla will unveil robotaxi later this year, with the unveil set to take place on Aug. 8.

#StockMarket #FuturesTrading #MarketPerformance #JobsReport #Inflation #Tesla

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/07/stock-market-today-live-updates.html


U.S. and China to hold talks on 'balanced growth' amid overcapacity concerns, Yellen says
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U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng agreed to launch exchanges on "balanced" economic growth and cooperate on anti-money laundering efforts. Yellen aimed to persuade Chinese officials to rein in excess production capacity for electric vehicles (EVs) and clean energy technology. The Biden administration is facing calls to increase tariffs on Chinese EVs. Yellen did not threaten trade barriers but expressed concerns about the implications of China's industrial strategy. The forum on balanced growth will provide a structured way to discuss the issue. Yellen also warned Chinese firms of "significant consequences" if they supported Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Chinese state media criticized Yellen's stance as a pretext for protectionist policies. Yellen's visit aims to cement U.S.-China ties and discuss economic risks. Yellen will continue discussions in Beijing with Chinese officials.

#Us #China #EconomicGrowth #Overcapacity #JanetYellen #HeLifeng #ElectricVehicles #CleanEnergy #Tariffs #IndustrialStrategy #Forum #Russia #Ukraine

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/06/us-and-china-to-hold-talks-on-balanced-growth-amid-overcapacity-concerns-yellen-says.html


The strong U.S. job market is in a ‘sweet spot,' economists say
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The U.S. economy added 303,000 jobs in March, the largest gain in over a year. The unemployment rate also decreased to 3.8%. The labor market looks healthy and sustainable, with broad-based job growth and real wage growth. The job market is cooler than in 2021 and 2022, but it is still relatively easy to find a job and workers are receiving inflation-adjusted raises. The Federal Reserve sees cooling wage growth as positive in the fight against inflation. The labor market is settling into a 'sweet spot' and is expected to continue growing.

#UsJobMarket #Economists #LaborMarket #UnemploymentRate #JobGrowth #WageGrowth #Inflation #FederalReserve

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/05/the-strong-us-job-market-is-in-a-sweet-spot-economists-say.html


Fed's Kashkari raises prospect of zero rate cuts — but Goldman says that would be ‘very surprising'
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Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Jan Hatzius expects three interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this year. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari floated the possibility of zero rate cuts in 2024 if inflation remained sticky. Hatzius said he would be 'very surprised' if no rate cuts were implemented. Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that it would take time to evaluate the current state of inflation, leaving the timing of potential rate cuts uncertain. Market participants are closely monitoring comments from Fed officials for clues on the labor market and inflation. Hatzius is optimistic about the U.S. economy, projecting close to 3% growth this year and a 15% recession probability over the next 12 months. He also expects cooling inflation, with the personal consumption expenditures price index at 2.4% by the end of 2024 and 2% next year. The Fed held interest rates steady last month and signaled three quarter-percentage point cuts by the end of 2024. Traders anticipate a 94% likelihood of rates remaining unchanged in May and a 60% probability of a cut in June.

#FederalReserve #InterestRateCuts #Economy #Inflation #JanHatzius #NeelKashkari #JeromePowell #GoldmanSachs

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/05/top-goldman-economist-downplays-prospect-of-zero-fed-rate-cuts-in-2024.html


Free trade flaws fueled Trump's rise in 2016 — and the problems remain, top economist says
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Decades of trade deficits and a strong dollar created too many "losers" in the U.S. economy who turned to Donald Trump's protectionist policies, according to Richard Koo, chief economist at the Nomura Research Institute — and those conditions remain. Trump's "America First" economic policies led his administration to institute a slew of trade tariffs on China, Mexico, the European Union and others, including slapping 25% duties on imported steel and aluminum. As the Republican nominee for the 2024 presidential election, Trump has proposed a baseline 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a minimum levy of 60% on imported Chinese products. Speaking to CNBC's Steve Sedgwick on the sidelines of the Ambrosetti Forum on Friday, Koo said protectionism was a "horrible thing," but that Trump's approach "does have some economic logic." Koo argued that economists need to move beyond the idea that the trade deficit is simply down to "too much investment" and "too few savings" in the U.S., as this means deficit can only be reduced by remaining in recession until domestic demand weakens so much that U.S. companies can export more goods, which would not be possible in a democracy.

#FreeTrade #DonaldTrump #ProtectionistPolicies #TradeTariffs #TradeDeficit #Economists

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/05/free-trade-flaws-fueled-trumps-rise-in-2016-and-the-problems-remain-top-economist-says.html


Biden says U.S. economy is world's best. Trump calls it a 'cesspool.' Data is clear.
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President Joe Biden claims the U.S. economy is the world's best, while Donald Trump calls it a 'cesspool of ruin.' By the numbers, Biden is correct as the U.S. economy outpaces other developed nations. U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) was 2.5% in 2023, significantly higher than other economies. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects the U.S. to maintain its lead in 2024, with GDP expected to come down to 2.1%. The labor market remains strong, with U.S. private companies adding 184,000 jobs in March, the fastest employment growth since July 2023. The stock market has also performed well, although prices are projected to cool in the coming year. The U.S. economy's recent outperformance is attributed to a combination of policy and luck, including significant fiscal stimulus injected into the economy and the resilience of the American financial system. However, there is still room for setbacks in the recovery, and the path of the U.S. economy's recovery remains uncertain.

#JoeBiden #DonaldTrump #UsEconomy #Gdp #Employment #StockMarket #FiscalStimulus #FinancialSystem #Recovery

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/04/biden-us-economy-worlds-best-trump-claims-cesspool-data-is-clear.html


KKR says China's real estate correction may only be halfway done
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China's real estate troubles are likely far from over, according to a report by KKR. The report suggests that China's housing market correction may only be halfway complete in terms of its depth, based on comparisons to housing corrections in the U.S., Japan, and Spain. KKR emphasizes the need to address the overbuilt real estate industry quickly for overall GDP growth to pick up significantly. The report also highlights the importance of restoring confidence to drive savings down and spur consumer and business spending. KKR expects a modest slowdown in China's GDP growth to 4.7% this year, with real estate and Covid-related factors halving their drag on the economy. The report suggests that more action by Beijing to improve China's real estate sector could shift investor perception. However, geopolitical tensions and the property market slump have given many foreign institutional investors pause about investing in China. KKR's report also mentions the importance of repairing soft spots in the economy, particularly in the housing sector, to improve the cost of capital and allow new consumer companies to access capital markets. The report concludes that if China adjusts its domestic policies to be more investor-friendly, the market could rebound significantly from current levels.

#China #RealEstate #Kkr #GdpGrowth #HousingMarket #InvestorPerception

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/03/kkr-says-chinas-real-estate-correction-may-only-be-halfway-done.html


Baltimore bridge collapse a ‘national economic catastrophe,' says Maryland governor
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The collapse of Baltimore's Francis Scott Key Bridge on Tuesday after being struck by a large cargo ship is described as a 'national economic catastrophe' by Maryland Governor Wes Moore. The bridge collapse has choked off access to the Port of Baltimore, one of the busiest ports in the U.S., and is expected to impact the U.S. economy by snarling supply chains for certain goods like cars. The wreckage is blocking a primary access point for the port, which handles a record 1.1 million containers of cargo and nearly 850,000 shipments of cars and light trucks annually. The operation to remove the ship, clear debris, and reopen the channel is underway, but there is no timeline for completion. The U.S. government has provided $60 million in funding to clear the wreckage, and President Joe Biden intends for the federal government to pay for the entire cost of rebuilding the bridge. The Small Business Administration is offering low-interest, long-term loans of up to $2 million to local small businesses affected by the bridge collapse.

#Baltimore #BridgeCollapse #EconomicCatastrophe #PortOfBaltimore #SupplyChains #CargoShip

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/31/baltimore-bridge-collapse-a-national-economic-catastrophe.html


U.S. stocks have ‘limited upside' from here, says Goldman Sachs Asset Management
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James Ashley, head of international market strategy at Goldman Sachs Asset Management, stated that U.S. equities are fairly valued but have limited upside at these valuations. However, GSAM sees India as a strategic long-term growth story with significant upside in its stock market. Ashley also mentioned that Japanese stocks have more room to run due to a significant monetary policy shift. He believes that Japan is the most attractive developed market both in the short-term and long-term. Overall, GSAM suggests that investors should be looking for better opportunities outside of U.S. stocks.

#UsStocks #GoldmanSachsAssetManagement #India #Japan

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/27/us-stocks-have-limited-upside-from-here-gsam.html


Dow closes more than 150 points lower as stocks take a break from their rally: Live updates
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The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 162.26 points, or 0.41%, closing at 39,313.64. The S&P 500 dipped 0.31% to finish at 5,218.19, while the Nasdaq Composite was down 0.27% and settled at 16,384.47. The market is on track for its fifth consecutive month of gains, with the major U.S. stock benchmarks crossing new all-time closing high levels last week. The S&P 500 added roughly 2.3% last week, while the Dow gained just under 2% for its best week since December, nearing the 40,000 level. The Nasdaq Composite, meanwhile, jumped about 2.9% during the period. These advances were fueled by the Federal Reserve's latest remarks that maintained central bankers' rate-cutting timeline for this year, as well as investors' ongoing enthusiasm for tech stocks amid the AI-powered rally. Overall investor sentiment remains above its historical average, reflecting persistent market optimism. Still, some investors fear the potential impact of an overextended rally and higher-for-longer interest rates. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research, also noted that equities have gotten expensive, with the S&P now trading at a 33% premium to its average price-to-earnings ratio over the last 20 years, he said. This week, investors will gain further insight about the path of inflation from the February personal consumption expenditures price index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, released Friday morning. The market's reaction will be determined on the following Monday, given the Good Friday holiday.

#StockMarket #DowJones #S&p500 #NasdaqComposite #FederalReserve #InvestorSentiment #Inflation

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/24/stock-market-today-live-updates.html


What investors should know about the U.S. easing vehicle emissions rules
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The Biden administration has decided to ease its timeline for all-electric vehicle adoption and give automakers more ways to meet new tailpipe emissions standards. The new Environmental Protection Agency rules aim to cut tailpipe emissions by 49% between model years 2027 and 2032, with a target for EVs to make up at least 35% of new vehicle sales by 2032. The standards are less ambitious than proposed rules released last year. Legacy automakers such as GM, Ford, and Stellantis are expected to benefit from the new regulations. Tesla and environmental groups criticized the standards. The new rules are seen as a win for traditional Detroit automakers and the United Auto Workers union. Stocks for Detroit automakers and U.S. hybrid leader closed higher following the announcement. The new standards could help Biden with key constituencies in the presidential election. The CAFE standards for 2027 to 2032 model-year vehicles are expected to be finalized later this year. The California Air Resources Board can set its own standards for emissions and fuel economy.

#VehicleEmissions #BidenAdministration #Automakers #ElectricVehicles #TailpipeEmissions #LegacyAutomakers #DetroitAutomakers #UnitedAutoWorkers #CafeStandards #CaliforniaAirResourcesBoard

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/23/ford-gm-stellantis-to-benefit-from-biden-emissions-rules.html


The Biden administration's real-time supply chain demand tracker is getting more deeply embedded in the economy
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The Biden administration's real-time supply chain demand tracker, called FLOW, is expanding to track inland freight ports, including rail terminal and warehouse end-destination data. The platform, launched two years ago, has partnered with companies including Walmart, Target, Nike, Home Depot, FedEx, Union Pacific, and DHL to track the supply chain as a cause of inflation in real time. The expansion of FLOW will capture and publish data on inland freight ports, providing a real-time snapshot of port and inland network congestion and monitoring unexpected cargo shifts. The data-sharing platform aims to create a line of sight across various trade routes and methods to make informed decisions and mitigate trade uncertainties. The White House economic analysis found that more than 80% of recent progress in lowering inflation can be attributed to the supply chain. FLOW is part of the Biden administration's response to supply chain disruptions caused by the Covid-19 pandemic and aims to improve the efficiency and timeliness of America's supply chain through data sharing and analysis.

#BidenAdministration #SupplyChain #Inflation #Flow #DataPartnership #FreightPorts #Logistics #TradeRoutes

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/20/biden-administration-is-expanding-its-real-time-supply-chain-tracker.html


EV euphoria is dead. Automakers trumpet consumer choice for U.S. car shoppers
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Automakers including Ford, General Motors, Mercedes-Benz, Volkswagen, Jaguar Land Rover, and Aston Martin are scaling back or delaying their electric vehicle (EV) plans. Despite lower-than-expected consumer demand for EVs, sales are still predicted to increase in the coming years. The industry is shifting towards a more mixed offering of vehicles, including gas-powered vehicles, hybrids, and fully electric options. Automakers are adjusting their EV targets and focusing on meeting federal standards for carbon emissions. The slower adoption of EVs has led to price cuts on several models. The Biden administration's fuel economy and emissions standards may be dialed back due to the slower pace of EV adoption. The outcome of the U.S. presidential election in November may also impact the future of EV regulations. European automakers face stricter EV regulations, with a current aim to ban sales of traditional fossil-fuel vehicles by 2035.

#ElectricVehicles #Automakers #ConsumerChoice #EvSales #EvAdoption #EvTargets #CarbonEmissions #FuelEconomyStandards #BidenAdministration #EuropeanRegulations

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/13/ev-euphoria-is-dead-automakers-trumpet-consumer-choice-in-us.html


5 things to know before the stock market opens Friday
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The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite reached record highs ahead of Friday's jobs report. The February jobs numbers will be a market catalyst, with expectations of 198,000 jobs added. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stated that the central bank is close to being able to cut interest rates. Novo Nordisk's stock hit a record high, making it the 12th most valuable company in the world. Major grocers are competing to offer fast home grocery delivery to customers.

#StockMarket #JobsReport #FederalReserve #NovoNordisk #Grocers

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/08/5-things-to-know-before-the-stock-market-opens-friday.html


Super Tuesday live updates: Biden wins Virginia Democratic primary, Vermont too early to call, NBC News projects
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On Super Tuesday 2024, President Joe Biden wins the Democratic primary in Virginia, while the Republican primary in Virginia is too early to call. Former President Donald Trump is leading in the Republican presidential primary in Virginia. In North Carolina, over half of Republican primary voters do not think President Joe Biden legitimately won the 2020 presidential election. President Joe Biden's political operation had a record grassroots fundraising haul in February. Taylor Swift urges her fans to vote in their state's primaries. California, Texas, North Carolina, Alabama, and Arkansas hold primaries for key down-ballot races. The Democratic and Republican presidential primaries in Vermont are too early to call. Nikki Haley remains in the race for the Republican nomination and will stay in as long as she remains competitive. Former President Donald Trump's campaign is trying to recruit Nikki Haley's wealthiest supporters. First Lady Jill Biden is actively campaigning for President Joe Biden's reelection bid, while Melania Trump remains out of the spotlight. Mark Cuban backs Joe Biden and criticizes Donald Trump. Robert Kennedy Jr. touts support from independents and spreads COVID-19 vaccine misinformation. Super Tuesday sees a fierce battle for the open North Carolina attorney general seat. Donald Trump and Joe Biden are staying home on Super Tuesday. Crypto-backed groups spent $13 million on Super Tuesday races. Taylor Swift urges voters to cast ballots for candidates who most represent them. Super Tuesday voting begins in Vermont, with Joe Biden and Donald Trump looking to secure their leads. The California Senate race is already the state's most expensive ever.

#SuperTuesday #JoeBiden #Virginia #DonaldTrump #NorthCarolina #NikkiHaley #California #TaylorSwift #MarkCuban #RobertKennedyJr.

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/05/super-tuesday-elections-live-updates.html


Biden to launch joint FTC-DOJ task force to crack down on 'unfair and illegal pricing'
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President Joe Biden will launch a new strike force jointly led by the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) and Department of Justice (DOJ) to tackle 'unfair and illegal' corporate pricing. The task force aims to address the high costs of living for consumers. FTC Chair Lina Khan and Assistant Attorney General for Antitrust Jonathan Kanter will co-chair the strike force. The White House will convene the sixth formal meeting of its Competition Council to root out anti-competitive practices. The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau will release a final rule to cut credit card late fees, and the Agriculture Department will release protections for farmers against discriminatory processing practices. Biden's goal is to combat corporate pricing practices that contribute to the perception of a poor economy. However, questions remain about the legal authority regulators have to address aggressive pricing strategies. Despite signs of growing economic optimism, Biden still trails former President Donald Trump in hypothetical general election polls.

#JoeBiden #Ftc #Doj #Pricing #Consumer #Competition #Regulation #Economy

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/05/biden-to-launch-joint-ftc-doj-task-force-to-crack-down-on-unfair-and-illegal-pricing-.html


CNBC Daily Open: Americans' mood on the economy sinks
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Consumer confidence fell to 106.7 in February, down from a revised 110.9 in January, according to the Conference Board. The index measuring short-term expectations for income, business, and the job market fell to 79.8 from 81.5 in January. A reading under 80 often signals an upcoming recession. Rising concerns over jobs and the upcoming presidential elections contributed to the decline in consumer confidence. The fall in consumer confidence was broad-based, affecting most income groups and age demographics. The decline in public perception of the economy poses a challenge for President Joe Biden ahead of high-stakes elections this year.

#ConsumerConfidence #Economy #Recession #Jobs #PresidentialElections

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/28/cnbc-daily-open-americans-mood-on-the-economy-sinks.html


CNBC Daily Open: The U.S. economy seems to be holding up
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The U.S. economy appears to be holding up, with cost pressures for manufacturers and service businesses easing in February. S&P Global's composite index of purchase managers fell slightly to 51.4, indicating expansion in both the manufacturing and service sectors. Factory output grew at the fastest rate in ten months. However, Fed vice chair Philip Jefferson highlighted three key risks: resilient consumer spending, weakening employment, and geopolitical risks. Despite the positive signs, there is still a need to adapt to continuing risks.

#U.s.Economy #Manufacturing #ServiceSector #EconomicGrowth #Risks

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/23/cnbc-daily-open-the-us-economy-seems-to-be-holding-up.html


Healthy Returns: The launch of breakthrough Alzheimer's drug Leqembi is off to a slow start
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The launch of the Alzheimer's drug Leqembi is off to a slow start, with only about 2,000 patients currently on the drug, seven months after FDA approval. Biogen had set a target of treating 10,000 patients by the end of March. The complex process for patients to receive Leqembi, including securing an appointment with a neurologist and undergoing special tests, is a hurdle. Biogen estimates that 3,800 patients have signed up on registries to receive the drug. The company is also working on an injectable version of Leqembi. Leqembi brought in $7 million in fourth-quarter revenue and $10 million in full-year sales. Biogen is pinning its hopes on Leqembi to drive growth as it faces generic competition for its multiple sclerosis therapies.

#Alzheimer's #Leqembi #DrugLaunch #Biogen #FdaApproval

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/20/healthy-returns-alzheimers-drug-leqembi-launch-apple-vision-pro-nausea.html


CNBC Daily Open: U.S. consumers upbeat on the economy
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American consumers remain steady and upbeat on the economy despite sticky inflation, according to the University of Michigan survey for February. The consumer sentiment index rose 0.6 points to 79.6, indicating that consumers continue to feel more assured about the economy. The survey also showed that consumers expressed confidence in the slowdown in inflation and strength in labor markets. However, the survey revealed that inflation expectations for the year ahead inched up to 3% from 2.9% in January. This comes after a surprise pullback in consumer spending in January and mixed economic data that delivered a one-two punch for markets last week.

#U.s.Economy #ConsumerSentiment #Inflation #ConsumerSpending

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/20/cnbc-daily-open-us-consumers-upbeat-on-the-economy.html


Asia markets set to track Wall Street gains with S&P 500 hitting a record high overnight
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Asia-Pacific markets are expected to rise, following Wall Street's gains, with the S&P 500 reaching a new record high. The S&P/ASX 200 in Australia rose 0.91% at open, while futures for Hong Kong's Hang Seng index indicate a stronger start. The Nikkei 225 is set to extend gains after Japan entered a technical recession. Mainland China markets are closed for the Chinese New Year holidays. Investors are awaiting the Singapore 2024 budget. In the US, the S&P 500 climbed 0.58% to close at a new record high, the Nasdaq Composite added 0.30%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average traded 0.91% higher. Oil prices rallied on a weakening dollar after a weak demand forecast for 2024. Japan is seen as a major beneficiary of the artificial intelligence boom in Asia-Pacific.

#Asia-pacificMarkets #WallStreet #S&p500 #RecordHigh #Nikkei225 #Japan #ChineseNewYear #Singapore2024Budget #OilPrices #WeakeningDollar #DemandForecast #ArtificialIntelligenceBoom

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/16/asia-markets-set-to-track-wall-street-gains-with-sp-500-hitting-a-record-high-overnight.html


Stock futures open little changed as market rally seeks to regain momentum: Live updates
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Stock futures were flat on Wednesday evening as Wall Street looked to build on a modest rebound with key economic data on deck. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average ticked up just 3 points, or less than 0.1%. S&P 500 futures were little changed, and Nasdaq 100 futures dipped less than 0.1%. The S&P 500 recaptured the 5,000 level, closing slightly above it. Investors are weighing whether the Federal Reserve can bring down rates without derailing an economy that keeps surprising to the upside. Investors will get another update about the state of the U.S. economy on Thursday, with January retail sales and weekly unemployment claims data due out before the opening bell on Wall Street. Earnings season continues to paint a muddled picture of corporate America. Apple shares were down 5% in extended trading after the tech company reported disappointing iPhone sales and weak forward sales projections. Tesla jumped 7% after beating estimates on the top and bottom lines. Fast-food company McDonald's is scheduled to report earnings before the bell Thursday.

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/14/stock-market-today-live-updates.html


European markets set for cautious open with earnings, U.S. inflation in focus
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European markets are set for a cautious open as investors assess incoming corporate earnings reports and a key U.S. inflation print. The pan-European Stoxx 600 index closed the previous session 0.5% higher. On Tuesday, all eyes will turn to the U.S. January consumer price index, which will be closely watched by the Federal Reserve. Headline inflation is expected to come in at 0.2% month-on-month and 2.9% annually. Core prices are expected to have risen 0.3% in January and 3.7% from the previous year. The ZEW economic sentiment survey for Germany and the euro zone is also due. The regional Stoxx index has recorded a muted February so far, following a strong end to January. This week will see reporting from several major European businesses, including Commerzbank. The FTSE 100 is set to add around 8 points, Germany's DAX is expected to drop by around 41 points, and France's CAC 40 is seen around 10 points lower.

#EuropeanMarkets #Earnings #U.s.Inflation #Stoxx600 #ConsumerPriceIndex #FederalReserve #ZewEconomicSentimentSurvey #Ftse100 #Dax #Cac40

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/13/europe-markets-open-to-close-earnings-us-inflation-in-focus.html


Dollar nears 150 yen ahead of US inflation test; bitcoin buoyant
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The dollar is approaching the 150 yen mark, which could trigger further action from Japanese officials. The yen has weakened against the dollar due to expectations of the Federal Reserve's easing cycle and the Bank of Japan's reluctance to aggressively hike rates. The US inflation report for January is expected to provide clarity on the Fed's rate cuts this year. The dollar has been benefiting from strong US economic data, while other currencies, particularly in Europe and Asia, have not shown the same level of strength. Bitcoin has risen above $50,000 for the first time in over two years, driven by expectations of rate cuts and anticipation of the halving event.

#Dollar #Yen #UsInflation #Bitcoin #ForeignExchangeRates

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/13/dollar-nears-150-yen-ahead-of-us-inflation-test-bitcoin-buoyant.html


Russia’s economy ‘in for very tough times’ despite improved growth outlook, IMF managing director says
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The head of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Kristalina Georgieva, warns that Russia's economy is still facing significant challenges despite an improved growth outlook. The IMF recently raised its forecast for Russia's economic growth from 1.1% to 2.6% for this year. However, Georgieva believes that the forecast figure does not tell the full story. She describes Russia's current production and consumption patterns as resembling those of the Soviet Union, with high levels of production and low levels of consumption. Russian defense spending has increased significantly since the war began, with military spending amounting to roughly 30% of fiscal expenditure. Additionally, more than 800,000 people have left Russia, including highly skilled workers in fields like IT and sciences. Georgieva believes that the outflow of people and reduced access to technology due to sanctions will contribute to tough times for the Russian economy.

#Russia #Economy #Imf #GrowthOutlook #DefenseSpending #Consumption #Production #Sanctions

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/12/russias-economy-in-for-very-tough-times-despite-improved-outlook-imf.html


Stock futures are little changed on Sunday night after a record week for the S&P 500: Live updates
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U.S. stock futures are flat on Sunday night after a record-setting week for the S&P 500. The S&P 500 closed above the 5,000 level for the first time, while the Nasdaq Composite added 1.25%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 0.14%. All three major indexes are coming off their fifth straight week of gains. In the week ahead, 61 names in the S&P 500 are set to report earnings, including gig economy stocks and Kraft Heinz. Traders will also watch for the release of the consumer price index (CPI) and producer price index (PPI) data. Jay Hatfield of Infrastructure Capital Advisors believes the S&P 500 could end the year at 5,500, corresponding to a potential 9% rise. In the near term, he expects the market to stall around 5,000 or 5,100 until there is greater clarity on rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank (ECB).

#StockMarket #S&p500 #NasdaqComposite #DowJonesIndustrialAverage #Earnings #GigEconomy #Cpi #Ppi #RateCuts

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/11/stock-market-today-live-updates.html


Treasury yields hold steady as investors weigh economic data, Fed rate outlook
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U.S. Treasury yields were little changed on Friday as investors weighed fresh economic data and considered the path ahead for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. The yield on the  was flat at 4.1715% and the yield on the  was steady at 4.4651%. Initial weekly jobless claims data released Thursday came in at 218,000 — less than the 220,000 economists expected. Fed officials have dashed investor hopes of a rate cut as early as March, with Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari anticipating two or three rate cuts in 2024. No key economic data is due Friday, but investors are looking ahead to major data releases next week including January's consumer price index.

#TreasuryYields #EconomicData #FederalReserve #InterestRates #JoblessClaims #RateCuts #ConsumerPriceIndex

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/09/us-treasurys-investors-weigh-economic-data-fed-rate-outlook.html


El-Erian, Krugman and other economists have very different opinions on China's struggling economy
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China's economy is facing headwinds including an ailing stock market, deflation, and a property crisis. Some economists, like Nobel laureate Paul Krugman, believe that China is entering an era of stagnation and disappointment, citing bad leadership, high youth unemployment, and a troubled real estate market. On the other hand, there are economists who remain optimistic about China's growth potential, such as the Institute of International Finance, which forecasts 5% growth in 2024. JPMorgan Private Bank also sees resilience in certain segments of the Chinese economy and believes that China's role as a global manufacturer will continue. The divide between China bulls and bears reflects the uncertainty surrounding China's economic future.

#China #Economy #StockMarket #Deflation #PropertyCrisis #PaulKrugman #InstituteOfInternationalFinance #JpmorganPrivateBank

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/09/el-erian-krugman-and-other-top-economists-voice-china-opinions.html


Budget office projects Biden green energy plan will cost much more than initial estimate
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The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the federal deficit will grow by $1 trillion over the next 10 years, with part of that growth driven by unexpectedly high costs related to President Joe Biden's goal of reorienting the U.S. economy towards greener energy. The CBO projects that the costs of clean vehicle tax credits and falling gas tax revenues will add $224 billion to the deficit over 10 years. The impact of new emissions standards, clean energy tax credits, and falling gas tax revenue will add $25 billion to the budget deficit this year and $428 billion over a decade. The CBO director, Philip Swagel, stated that the costs of energy-related tax provisions are much higher than originally projected due to new emissions standards, market developments, and actions taken by the administration. The CBO report also highlighted uncertainties about the long-term impact of green energy on the economy and the federal budget. Additionally, the report noted that the aging population and growth in federal healthcare costs per beneficiary are contributing to the deficit growth. The estimated deficit growth of $1 trillion over the next 10 years is slightly lower than the CBO's projection from last year. The decrease is attributed to a slowdown in the projected growth of government spending mandated by the Fiscal Responsibility Act of 2023. The CBO expects that approximately three-quarters of the deficit growth will be driven by the cost of paying interest on the national debt. The CBO report provides insight into the costs of Biden's green energy agenda and the challenges of implementing it.

#BudgetDeficit #GreenEnergy #JoeBiden #CongressionalBudgetOffice #EmissionsStandards #TaxCredits #GasTaxRevenue

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/07/bidens-clean-energy-plan-to-cost-far-more-than-initial-estimates.html


Appeals court denies Trump immunity in DC election case
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Former President Donald Trump does not have presidential immunity from prosecution on criminal charges related to his efforts to overturn his 2020 election loss, a federal appeals court unanimously ruled. The legal battle over Trump's immunity claim stems from the criminal election interference case being prosecuted by special counsel Jack Smith in U.S. District Court in Washington, D.C. Trump is charged in that case with four counts of crimes including conspiracy to defraud the United States and conspiracy to obstruct an official proceeding. He has pleaded not guilty. Trump is expected to quickly ask the Supreme Court to overturn the decision by the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit.

#DonaldTrump #PresidentialImmunity #CriminalCharges #ElectionInterference #SupremeCourt

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/06/trump-election-case-appeals-court-denies-ex-president-immunity.html


Powell insists the Fed will move carefully on rate cuts, with probably fewer than the market expects
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Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell vowed in a "60 Minutes" interview aired Sunday that the central bank will proceed carefully with interest rate cuts this year. Powell expressed confidence in the economy, promised he wouldn't be swayed by this year's presidential election, and said the pain he feared from rate hikes never really materialized. Markets have been making aggressive bets on how many cuts the Fed would make this year. Current pricing is pointing to five quarter-percentage points reductions, though Powell backed the FOMC's December "dot plot" grid of individual members' estimates that pointed to just three moves. Powell was broadly optimistic about the economy, noting that inflation, while still above the Fed's target, has moderated while the jobs market is strong. In another matter, Powell reiterated that neither he nor his colleagues would be swayed by political pressure during this presidential election year.

#FederalReserve #JeromePowell #InterestRates #Economy #Inflation #PresidentialElection

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/04/powell-insists-the-fed-will-move-carefully-on-rate-cuts-with-probably-fewer-than-the-market-expects.html


'Don't blame the Fed' for high mortgage rates, says Zillow chief economist—the real culprit and his predictions for 2024
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The average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is currently at about 6.7%, down from 7.8% in late October but up from the 3% seen in 2021. Zillow economist Orphe Divounguy argues that the Federal Reserve's influence on mortgage rates is overstated and that mortgage rates depend on inflation, expectations of future inflation and economic growth. Divounguy predicts that mortgage rates will not decrease significantly in 2024 and that home prices will continue to increase, albeit at a slower pace. He advises potential homebuyers to get in the market now if they can afford it, as waiting for mortgage rates to fall may indicate serious economic troubles.

#MortgageRates #FederalReserve #Zillow #HousingMarket #Economy

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/02/zillow-economist-mortgage-rate-predictions-for-2024.html


S&P 500 rises after strong tech earnings, gains kept in check following jobs report: Live updates
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The S&P 500 rose 0.2% after strong tech earnings, but gains were limited due to a spike in Treasury yields following a better-than-expected jobs report. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 146 points, or 0.3%, while the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.7%. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield jumped 15 basis points to 4% after the US economy added 353,000 jobs in January, surpassing estimates of 185,000. Wages also expanded by 4.5% year over year, exceeding the forecast of 4.1%. The strong jobs report suggests a robust labor market and may support growth for stocks. Facebook's stock rose 17% after beating expectations and announcing its first-ever dividend payout and a $50 billion share buyback program. Chevron and Exxon reported earnings that beat expectations, but their profits declined from the previous year due to impairment charges and lower oil prices. Chevron's stock rose 1% in premarket trading, while Exxon was down 1.15%. European stocks opened higher, led by autos, while Australia's producer price index rose 4.1% year on year in Q4 2023. Aozora Bank shares tumbled to a three-year low due to exposure to US office loans, and South Korea's January inflation slowed for the third straight month to 2.8%. The major US averages are up for the year, with the S&P 500 up 2.86%, the Nasdaq Composite up 2.33%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 2.2%.

#StockMarket #S&p500 #TechEarnings #JobsReport #TreasuryYields #DowJonesIndustrialAverage #NasdaqComposite #10-yearTreasuryYield #UsEconomy #Wages #LaborMarket #Facebook #Chevron #Exxon #EuropeanStocks #Autos #AustraliaProducerPrices #AozoraBank #SouthKoreaInflation

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/01/stock-market-today-live-updates.html


Watch live: Fed chief Powell speaks after central bank holds rates steady yet again
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The Federal Reserve has left interest rates unchanged in January. It's the fourth consecutive time that the central bank has decided to keep steady on rate policy. Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that a rate cut at the March meeting is unlikely. The Fed is leaving its options open as it assesses the path ahead for interest rates and when to implement cuts. Powell mentioned that supply chain and labor market healing have helped bring inflation down. The Fed is looking for more evidence that falling inflation is sustainable before cutting rates. Powell wants to see more good data and a continuation of the good data seen so far. The Fed believes that its policy rate is likely at its peak for this tightening cycle. The FOMC has not yet begun to consider cutting rates. The central bank may need more signs that inflation is easing before cutting rates. The Fed is not yet prepared to reduce rates and wants greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2%. The Fed's rate decision chilled investors, and stocks slipped slightly. The S&P 500 lost 0.9%, and the Nasdaq Composite was off 1.4%.

#FederalReserve #InterestRates #RateCuts #Inflation #JeromePowell

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/31/fed-meeting-today-live-updates.html


Cramer's post-earnings advice on Microsoft and Alphabet declines — wait on one, buy the other
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Jim Cramer advises waiting on Microsoft and buying Alphabet after their post-earnings declines. The CNBC Investing Club wants to see a pullback before adding to their mega-cap holding. They also mention a biotech holding that is experiencing a 'resurrection' and a new position in a health-care stock. Jim Cramer previews earnings from a medical equipment holding. The article provides behind-the-scenes insights into the CNBC Investing Club's decision-making process.

#JimCramer #CnbcInvestingClub #Microsoft #Alphabet #Earnings #Biotech #Health-careStock #MedicalEquipment

https://www.cnbc.com/investingclub/morning-meeting/