notes: CNBC | Oddbean

Budget office projects Biden green energy plan will cost much more than initial estimate ========== The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the federal deficit will grow by $1 trillion over the next 10 years, with part of that growth driven by unexpectedly high costs related to President Joe Biden's goal of reorienting the U.S. economy towards greener energy. The CBO projects that the costs of clean vehicle tax credits and falling gas tax revenues will add $224 billion to the deficit over 10 years. The impact of new emissions standards, clean energy tax credits, and falling gas tax revenue will add $25 billion to the budget deficit this year and $428 billion over a decade. The CBO director, Philip Swagel, stated that the costs of energy-related tax provisions are much higher than originally projected due to new emissions standards, market developments, and actions taken by the administration. The CBO report also highlighted uncertainties about the long-term impact of green energy on the economy and the federal budget. Additionally, the report noted that the aging population and growth in federal healthcare costs per beneficiary are contributing to the deficit growth. The estimated deficit growth of $1 trillion over the next 10 years is slightly lower than the CBO's projection from last year. The decrease is attributed to a slowdown in the projected growth of government spending mandated by the Fiscal Responsibility Act of 2023. The CBO expects that approximately three-quarters of the deficit growth will be driven by the cost of paying interest on the national debt. The CBO report provides insight into the costs of Biden's green energy agenda and the challenges of implementing it. #BudgetDeficit #GreenEnergy #JoeBiden #CongressionalBudgetOffice #EmissionsStandards #TaxCredits #GasTaxRevenue https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/07/bidens-clean-energy-plan-to-cost-far-more-than-initial-estimates.html

Notes by CNBC | export

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 Healthy Returns: The launch of breakthrough Alzheimer's drug Leqembi is off to a slow start
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The launch of the Alzheimer's drug Leqembi is off to a slow start, with only about 2,000 patients currently on the drug, seven months after FDA approval. Biogen had set a target of treating 10,000 patients by the end of March. The complex process for patients to receive Leqembi, including securing an appointment with a neurologist and undergoing special tests, is a hurdle. Biogen estimates that 3,800 patients have signed up on registries to receive the drug. The company is also working on an injectable version of Leqembi. Leqembi brought in $7 million in fourth-quarter revenue and $10 million in full-year sales. Biogen is pinning its hopes on Leqembi to drive growth as it faces generic competition for its multiple sclerosis therapies.

#Alzheimer's #Leqembi #DrugLaunch #Biogen #FdaApproval

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/20/healthy-returns-alzheimers-drug-leqembi-launch-apple-vision-pro-nausea.html

 CNBC Daily Open: U.S. consumers upbeat on the economy
==========

American consumers remain steady and upbeat on the economy despite sticky inflation, according to the University of Michigan survey for February. The consumer sentiment index rose 0.6 points to 79.6, indicating that consumers continue to feel more assured about the economy. The survey also showed that consumers expressed confidence in the slowdown in inflation and strength in labor markets. However, the survey revealed that inflation expectations for the year ahead inched up to 3% from 2.9% in January. This comes after a surprise pullback in consumer spending in January and mixed economic data that delivered a one-two punch for markets last week.

#U.s.Economy #ConsumerSentiment #Inflation #ConsumerSpending

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/20/cnbc-daily-open-us-consumers-upbeat-on-the-economy.html

 Asia markets set to track Wall Street gains with S&P 500 hitting a record high overnight
==========

Asia-Pacific markets are expected to rise, following Wall Street's gains, with the S&P 500 reaching a new record high. The S&P/ASX 200 in Australia rose 0.91% at open, while futures for Hong Kong's Hang Seng index indicate a stronger start. The Nikkei 225 is set to extend gains after Japan entered a technical recession. Mainland China markets are closed for the Chinese New Year holidays. Investors are awaiting the Singapore 2024 budget. In the US, the S&P 500 climbed 0.58% to close at a new record high, the Nasdaq Composite added 0.30%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average traded 0.91% higher. Oil prices rallied on a weakening dollar after a weak demand forecast for 2024. Japan is seen as a major beneficiary of the artificial intelligence boom in Asia-Pacific.

#Asia-pacificMarkets #WallStreet #S&p500 #RecordHigh #Nikkei225 #Japan #ChineseNewYear #Singapore2024Budget #OilPrices #WeakeningDollar #DemandForecast #ArtificialIntelligenceBoom

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/16/asia-markets-set-to-track-wall-street-gains-with-sp-500-hitting-a-record-high-overnight.html

 Stock futures open little changed as market rally seeks to regain momentum: Live updates
==========

Stock futures were flat on Wednesday evening as Wall Street looked to build on a modest rebound with key economic data on deck. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average ticked up just 3 points, or less than 0.1%. S&P 500 futures were little changed, and Nasdaq 100 futures dipped less than 0.1%. The S&P 500 recaptured the 5,000 level, closing slightly above it. Investors are weighing whether the Federal Reserve can bring down rates without derailing an economy that keeps surprising to the upside. Investors will get another update about the state of the U.S. economy on Thursday, with January retail sales and weekly unemployment claims data due out before the opening bell on Wall Street. Earnings season continues to paint a muddled picture of corporate America. Apple shares were down 5% in extended trading after the tech company reported disappointing iPhone sales and weak forward sales projections. Tesla jumped 7% after beating estimates on the top and bottom lines. Fast-food company McDonald's is scheduled to report earnings before the bell Thursday.



https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/14/stock-market-today-live-updates.html

 European markets set for cautious open with earnings, U.S. inflation in focus
==========

European markets are set for a cautious open as investors assess incoming corporate earnings reports and a key U.S. inflation print. The pan-European Stoxx 600 index closed the previous session 0.5% higher. On Tuesday, all eyes will turn to the U.S. January consumer price index, which will be closely watched by the Federal Reserve. Headline inflation is expected to come in at 0.2% month-on-month and 2.9% annually. Core prices are expected to have risen 0.3% in January and 3.7% from the previous year. The ZEW economic sentiment survey for Germany and the euro zone is also due. The regional Stoxx index has recorded a muted February so far, following a strong end to January. This week will see reporting from several major European businesses, including Commerzbank. The FTSE 100 is set to add around 8 points, Germany's DAX is expected to drop by around 41 points, and France's CAC 40 is seen around 10 points lower.

#EuropeanMarkets #Earnings #U.s.Inflation #Stoxx600 #ConsumerPriceIndex #FederalReserve #ZewEconomicSentimentSurvey #Ftse100 #Dax #Cac40

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/13/europe-markets-open-to-close-earnings-us-inflation-in-focus.html

 Dollar nears 150 yen ahead of US inflation test; bitcoin buoyant
==========

The dollar is approaching the 150 yen mark, which could trigger further action from Japanese officials. The yen has weakened against the dollar due to expectations of the Federal Reserve's easing cycle and the Bank of Japan's reluctance to aggressively hike rates. The US inflation report for January is expected to provide clarity on the Fed's rate cuts this year. The dollar has been benefiting from strong US economic data, while other currencies, particularly in Europe and Asia, have not shown the same level of strength. Bitcoin has risen above $50,000 for the first time in over two years, driven by expectations of rate cuts and anticipation of the halving event.

#Dollar #Yen #UsInflation #Bitcoin #ForeignExchangeRates

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/13/dollar-nears-150-yen-ahead-of-us-inflation-test-bitcoin-buoyant.html

 Russia’s economy ‘in for very tough times’ despite improved growth outlook, IMF managing director says
==========

The head of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Kristalina Georgieva, warns that Russia's economy is still facing significant challenges despite an improved growth outlook. The IMF recently raised its forecast for Russia's economic growth from 1.1% to 2.6% for this year. However, Georgieva believes that the forecast figure does not tell the full story. She describes Russia's current production and consumption patterns as resembling those of the Soviet Union, with high levels of production and low levels of consumption. Russian defense spending has increased significantly since the war began, with military spending amounting to roughly 30% of fiscal expenditure. Additionally, more than 800,000 people have left Russia, including highly skilled workers in fields like IT and sciences. Georgieva believes that the outflow of people and reduced access to technology due to sanctions will contribute to tough times for the Russian economy.

#Russia #Economy #Imf #GrowthOutlook #DefenseSpending #Consumption #Production #Sanctions

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/12/russias-economy-in-for-very-tough-times-despite-improved-outlook-imf.html

 Stock futures are little changed on Sunday night after a record week for the S&P 500: Live updates
==========

U.S. stock futures are flat on Sunday night after a record-setting week for the S&P 500. The S&P 500 closed above the 5,000 level for the first time, while the Nasdaq Composite added 1.25%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 0.14%. All three major indexes are coming off their fifth straight week of gains. In the week ahead, 61 names in the S&P 500 are set to report earnings, including gig economy stocks and Kraft Heinz. Traders will also watch for the release of the consumer price index (CPI) and producer price index (PPI) data. Jay Hatfield of Infrastructure Capital Advisors believes the S&P 500 could end the year at 5,500, corresponding to a potential 9% rise. In the near term, he expects the market to stall around 5,000 or 5,100 until there is greater clarity on rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank (ECB).

#StockMarket #S&p500 #NasdaqComposite #DowJonesIndustrialAverage #Earnings #GigEconomy #Cpi #Ppi #RateCuts

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/11/stock-market-today-live-updates.html

 Treasury yields hold steady as investors weigh economic data, Fed rate outlook
==========

U.S. Treasury yields were little changed on Friday as investors weighed fresh economic data and considered the path ahead for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. The yield on the  was flat at 4.1715% and the yield on the  was steady at 4.4651%. Initial weekly jobless claims data released Thursday came in at 218,000 — less than the 220,000 economists expected. Fed officials have dashed investor hopes of a rate cut as early as March, with Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari anticipating two or three rate cuts in 2024. No key economic data is due Friday, but investors are looking ahead to major data releases next week including January's consumer price index.

#TreasuryYields #EconomicData #FederalReserve #InterestRates #JoblessClaims #RateCuts #ConsumerPriceIndex

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/09/us-treasurys-investors-weigh-economic-data-fed-rate-outlook.html

 El-Erian, Krugman and other economists have very different opinions on China's struggling economy
==========

China's economy is facing headwinds including an ailing stock market, deflation, and a property crisis. Some economists, like Nobel laureate Paul Krugman, believe that China is entering an era of stagnation and disappointment, citing bad leadership, high youth unemployment, and a troubled real estate market. On the other hand, there are economists who remain optimistic about China's growth potential, such as the Institute of International Finance, which forecasts 5% growth in 2024. JPMorgan Private Bank also sees resilience in certain segments of the Chinese economy and believes that China's role as a global manufacturer will continue. The divide between China bulls and bears reflects the uncertainty surrounding China's economic future.

#China #Economy #StockMarket #Deflation #PropertyCrisis #PaulKrugman #InstituteOfInternationalFinance #JpmorganPrivateBank

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/09/el-erian-krugman-and-other-top-economists-voice-china-opinions.html

Budget office projects Biden green energy plan will cost much more than initial estimate
==========

The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the federal deficit will grow by $1 trillion over the next 10 years, with part of that growth driven by unexpectedly high costs related to President Joe Biden's goal of reorienting the U.S. economy towards greener energy. The CBO projects that the costs of clean vehicle tax credits and falling gas tax revenues will add $224 billion to the deficit over 10 years. The impact of new emissions standards, clean energy tax credits, and falling gas tax revenue will add $25 billion to the budget deficit this year and $428 billion over a decade. The CBO director, Philip Swagel, stated that the costs of energy-related tax provisions are much higher than originally projected due to new emissions standards, market developments, and actions taken by the administration. The CBO report also highlighted uncertainties about the long-term impact of green energy on the economy and the federal budget. Additionally, the report noted that the aging population and growth in federal healthcare costs per beneficiary are contributing to the deficit growth. The estimated deficit growth of $1 trillion over the next 10 years is slightly lower than the CBO's projection from last year. The decrease is attributed to a slowdown in the projected growth of government spending mandated by the Fiscal Responsibility Act of 2023. The CBO expects that approximately three-quarters of the deficit growth will be driven by the cost of paying interest on the national debt. The CBO report provides insight into the costs of Biden's green energy agenda and the challenges of implementing it.

#BudgetDeficit #GreenEnergy #JoeBiden #CongressionalBudgetOffice #EmissionsStandards #TaxCredits #GasTaxRevenue

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/07/bidens-clean-energy-plan-to-cost-far-more-than-initial-estimates.html

 Appeals court denies Trump immunity in DC election case
==========

Former President Donald Trump does not have presidential immunity from prosecution on criminal charges related to his efforts to overturn his 2020 election loss, a federal appeals court unanimously ruled. The legal battle over Trump's immunity claim stems from the criminal election interference case being prosecuted by special counsel Jack Smith in U.S. District Court in Washington, D.C. Trump is charged in that case with four counts of crimes including conspiracy to defraud the United States and conspiracy to obstruct an official proceeding. He has pleaded not guilty. Trump is expected to quickly ask the Supreme Court to overturn the decision by the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit.

#DonaldTrump #PresidentialImmunity #CriminalCharges #ElectionInterference #SupremeCourt

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/06/trump-election-case-appeals-court-denies-ex-president-immunity.html

 Powell insists the Fed will move carefully on rate cuts, with probably fewer than the market expects
==========

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell vowed in a "60 Minutes" interview aired Sunday that the central bank will proceed carefully with interest rate cuts this year. Powell expressed confidence in the economy, promised he wouldn't be swayed by this year's presidential election, and said the pain he feared from rate hikes never really materialized. Markets have been making aggressive bets on how many cuts the Fed would make this year. Current pricing is pointing to five quarter-percentage points reductions, though Powell backed the FOMC's December "dot plot" grid of individual members' estimates that pointed to just three moves. Powell was broadly optimistic about the economy, noting that inflation, while still above the Fed's target, has moderated while the jobs market is strong. In another matter, Powell reiterated that neither he nor his colleagues would be swayed by political pressure during this presidential election year.

#FederalReserve #JeromePowell #InterestRates #Economy #Inflation #PresidentialElection

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/04/powell-insists-the-fed-will-move-carefully-on-rate-cuts-with-probably-fewer-than-the-market-expects.html

 'Don't blame the Fed' for high mortgage rates, says Zillow chief economist—the real culprit and his predictions for 2024
==========

The average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is currently at about 6.7%, down from 7.8% in late October but up from the 3% seen in 2021. Zillow economist Orphe Divounguy argues that the Federal Reserve's influence on mortgage rates is overstated and that mortgage rates depend on inflation, expectations of future inflation and economic growth. Divounguy predicts that mortgage rates will not decrease significantly in 2024 and that home prices will continue to increase, albeit at a slower pace. He advises potential homebuyers to get in the market now if they can afford it, as waiting for mortgage rates to fall may indicate serious economic troubles.

#MortgageRates #FederalReserve #Zillow #HousingMarket #Economy

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/02/zillow-economist-mortgage-rate-predictions-for-2024.html

S&P 500 rises after strong tech earnings, gains kept in check following jobs report: Live updates
==========

The S&P 500 rose 0.2% after strong tech earnings, but gains were limited due to a spike in Treasury yields following a better-than-expected jobs report. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 146 points, or 0.3%, while the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.7%. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield jumped 15 basis points to 4% after the US economy added 353,000 jobs in January, surpassing estimates of 185,000. Wages also expanded by 4.5% year over year, exceeding the forecast of 4.1%. The strong jobs report suggests a robust labor market and may support growth for stocks. Facebook's stock rose 17% after beating expectations and announcing its first-ever dividend payout and a $50 billion share buyback program. Chevron and Exxon reported earnings that beat expectations, but their profits declined from the previous year due to impairment charges and lower oil prices. Chevron's stock rose 1% in premarket trading, while Exxon was down 1.15%. European stocks opened higher, led by autos, while Australia's producer price index rose 4.1% year on year in Q4 2023. Aozora Bank shares tumbled to a three-year low due to exposure to US office loans, and South Korea's January inflation slowed for the third straight month to 2.8%. The major US averages are up for the year, with the S&P 500 up 2.86%, the Nasdaq Composite up 2.33%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 2.2%.

#StockMarket #S&p500 #TechEarnings #JobsReport #TreasuryYields #DowJonesIndustrialAverage #NasdaqComposite #10-yearTreasuryYield #UsEconomy #Wages #LaborMarket #Facebook #Chevron #Exxon #EuropeanStocks #Autos #AustraliaProducerPrices #AozoraBank #SouthKoreaInflation

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/01/stock-market-today-live-updates.html

 Watch live: Fed chief Powell speaks after central bank holds rates steady yet again
==========

The Federal Reserve has left interest rates unchanged in January. It's the fourth consecutive time that the central bank has decided to keep steady on rate policy. Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that a rate cut at the March meeting is unlikely. The Fed is leaving its options open as it assesses the path ahead for interest rates and when to implement cuts. Powell mentioned that supply chain and labor market healing have helped bring inflation down. The Fed is looking for more evidence that falling inflation is sustainable before cutting rates. Powell wants to see more good data and a continuation of the good data seen so far. The Fed believes that its policy rate is likely at its peak for this tightening cycle. The FOMC has not yet begun to consider cutting rates. The central bank may need more signs that inflation is easing before cutting rates. The Fed is not yet prepared to reduce rates and wants greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2%. The Fed's rate decision chilled investors, and stocks slipped slightly. The S&P 500 lost 0.9%, and the Nasdaq Composite was off 1.4%.

#FederalReserve #InterestRates #RateCuts #Inflation #JeromePowell

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/31/fed-meeting-today-live-updates.html

 Cramer's post-earnings advice on Microsoft and Alphabet declines — wait on one, buy the other
==========

Jim Cramer advises waiting on Microsoft and buying Alphabet after their post-earnings declines. The CNBC Investing Club wants to see a pullback before adding to their mega-cap holding. They also mention a biotech holding that is experiencing a 'resurrection' and a new position in a health-care stock. Jim Cramer previews earnings from a medical equipment holding. The article provides behind-the-scenes insights into the CNBC Investing Club's decision-making process.

#JimCramer #CnbcInvestingClub #Microsoft #Alphabet #Earnings #Biotech #Health-careStock #MedicalEquipment

https://www.cnbc.com/investingclub/morning-meeting/