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September's bursting increase in global liquidity (M2) is the largest since November 2023. Remember last year’s Halloween Rally and Christmas Rally in the U.S. stock market? It may come earlier in 2024.
https://m.primal.net/JWmZ.png The most likely price range for $BA by the end of 2024 is between $120 and $125. Very high probability (over 97%) will be above $125 by both November and December 2024. Today's (7/19/2024) price is $179.
$CRWD showed dump signal on July 10, 2024. Nine days before today's low level engineering error that crashed it.
Oh, BTW, $VIX predicted two days ago that something big was upcoming.
Charts do not lie!https://m.primal.net/JWkS.pnghttps://m.primal.net/JWkU.png
VIX history shows we're in a low volatility period, but not at extreme lows yet. At 12.51, we're above the 9.5-10.6 range seen before past market shocks. Complacency? Maybe. But history suggests there's still room for volatility to drop before the next big spike. #MarketVolatility https://m.primal.net/JOXn.png
Bitcoin RSI shows a bullish signal. Expect a zig zag path to the next significant surge around late July to early August. There is still chance to touch $51k support before then, the last chance to buy cheap. #Bitcoin #Crypto #BTChttps://m.primal.net/JMAC.png
$BTC price Short-Term (1-2 Weeks): Bitcoin is likely to test support at $60,000. If this level holds, consolidation may occur. If it breaks, further declines are expected.
Medium-Term (3-8 Weeks): Continued bearish momentum suggests potential further downside. A bullish reversal requires breaking above $70,000 with significant volume.
Both the daily and weekly charts indicate bearish momentum, with the next critical support level at $60,000. Breaking above $70,000 is essential for a bullish trend reversal.
A silver lining is last weekly $BTChttps://m.primal.net/IvxQ.png price touched the 21 MA for the first time since the halving. The new week opens below the 21 MA. If this continues for a few weeks, repeating what happened after the 2016 halving, a solid springboard can form. (The white dot is the 21 MA.)
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The timing of the Federal Reserve's decision to lower interest rates depends on several economic factors and indicators. Based on the insights from the provided documents and current economic conditions, here are some considerations and a likely timeline for rate cuts:
Economic Indicators to Monitor
Inflation Trends: If inflation continues to moderate and move towards the Fed's target of 2%, this would provide room for the Fed to consider lowering rates.
Employment Data: A rising unemployment rate and weakening job market could prompt the Fed to cut rates to stimulate economic activity. The current unemployment rate is relatively low but has shown signs of increase.
Economic Growth: Slowing GDP growth, particularly if it falls below expectations, might lead the Fed to lower rates to support economic activity. Recent GDP reports have been below consensus expectations.
Global Economic Conditions: External economic pressures, such as slower global growth or geopolitical uncertainties, could also influence the Fed's decisions.
Predicted Timeline for Rate Cuts
Late 2024: There is a possibility that the Fed may start cutting rates later in 2024. This is aligned with the expectation that inflationary pressures will ease, and economic growth might slow further, necessitating monetary easing.
Early 2025: If the economic data remains mixed but does not show severe recessionary trends, the Fed might delay rate cuts until early 2025. This would allow more time to assess the impact of current monetary policies and adjust accordingly.
Factors Influencing the Timing
Fed’s Dual Mandate: The Fed aims to balance its dual mandate of stable prices and maximum employment. Significant deviations in either could prompt rate cuts.
Market Expectations: Financial markets often price in expected Fed actions. If market conditions tighten significantly, the Fed might act sooner to prevent economic disruptions.
Fiscal Policy Interactions: The interaction between fiscal and monetary policies, such as large fiscal deficits, can also influence the Fed’s timing. Loose fiscal policy can mitigate the need for immediate rate cuts but might necessitate them later to manage debt servicing costs and economic stability.
🚨 Breaking: Iran launches and concludes a slow drone attack on April 13, 2024, strategically timed between the close of Western markets and before Israeli stocks open on Sunday. A calculated move in a high-stakes global chess game. 🌍 #Geopolitics #MarketImpact
https://m.primal.net/HqHI.png Tools upgraded for BTC peaking strategy in the coming quarters. It's clock work. Easy money made during the low interest rate era, when wealth was given to real estate investors who knew how to accumulate properties with the easy money. BTC is easy money unless you refuse it!
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What stage is each market right now?
Stock-
Complacency (before the crash) or Disbelief (early recovery)?
Crypto-
Hope (Early adopters) or Optimism (Early majority)?
How to Overcome the Inflation-Debt Paradox with AI Prosperity
Leveraging the super-enhanced productivity to reshape our economy into one where growth, low-to-no inflation, and debt reduction go hand in hand.
Imagine a new world where the same $100 bill can buy you significantly more goods and services than it does today, thanks to the deflationary impact of hyper-productivity. In this world, the Federal Reserve can lower interest rates without fear of stoking inflation, subsequently reversing the national debt and freeing up resources for growth and innovation.
But Now, Face the Economic Labyrinth Before Us
The current economic landscape is akin to navigating a impossible maze, where every turn presents the challenge of balancing inflation control with fostering economic growth, all while managing an ever-increasing national debt. The traditional tools wielded by the Federal Reserve, primarily the manipulation of the federal funds rate, have historically oscillated between stimulating growth and tempering inflation. However, this delicate equilibrium has been disrupted, evidenced by the unprecedented situation where the Fed was unable to transfer funds to the Treasury first time in history, and the national debt is projected to climb to a record 116% of GDP by the end of 2034, underscoring the urgency for innovative solutions to the burgeoning issue of national debt and its implications on fiscal policy.
Spending on interest exceeded a number of other budget categories
The Quest for a Sustainable Solution
The critical challenge lies in recalibrating the federal funds rate to stimulate economic activity without igniting inflationary pressures. This task involves a nuanced understanding of the velocity and magnitude at which rate adjustments can be made to cool an overheating economy without stoking the fires of inflation. The theoretical underpinning for this approach finds roots in the Keynesian economic model, which advocates for active government intervention to manage economic cycles. The model suggests that carefully calibrated fiscal and monetary policies can stimulate demand and growth in times of economic downturn, while controlling inflation during periods of expansion.
Strategizing Interest Rate Adjustments
Aiming for an interest rate slightly above the long-term inflation goal of 2% emerges as a strategic solution. This approach aligns with the Fisher Equation, which delineates the relationship between nominal interest rates, real interest rates, and expected inflation. By setting rates that are modestly above the inflation target, the economy can achieve moderate growth and employment gains without precipitating inflationary pressure. Moreover, this strategy facilitates a more sustainable framework for managing national debt, alleviating the fiscal strain on the Treasury.
Fisher Equation - Diagram
The AI Catalyst: Transforming Economic Dynamics
The advent of artificial intelligence (AI) and Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) introduces a paradigm shift. As Cathie Wood of Ark Invest suggests, these technologies are poised to serve as significant deflationary forces. The productivity boom fueled by AI—akin to the transformative impact of the Industrial Revolution—promises to elevate economic efficiency to unprecedented levels. This scenario is supported by Solow's productivity paradox, which observes that technological advancements initially may not reflect in productivity measurements until a significant integration period has passed. AI and AGI's full potential to revolutionize productivity and economic activity mirrors this concept, suggesting a future where the paradox is resolved, and productivity gains significantly outpace historical trends.
Enhancing Purchasing Power Through AI
In this new economic order, the concept of money itself undergoes a radical transformation. The deflationary impact of AI, coupled with its ability to exponentially increase productivity, could lead to a scenario where nominal inflation targets are maintained at 2%, yet the real inflation experiences a downward pressure, potentially reaching negative territories. This phenomenon is explained through the lens of the Quantity Theory of Money, which posits that the money supply's velocity and the volume of goods and services produced in an economy influence the price level. AI-driven productivity increases the volume of goods and services, thereby increasing the purchasing power of money.
A New Economic Renaissance
The emergence of an AI and AGI-driven economy not only promises to revolutionize our current financial systems but also fundamentally alters our understanding of money, interest, debt, and wealth. This shift introduces new economic theories and business practices, challenging and eventually replacing outdated models. The once-daunting challenge of national debt becomes a solvable problem, gradually clearing the path toward a future of financial stability and prosperity.
I anticipate the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts in 2024, but I'm considering their broader economic implications quite different from our expectation.
Traditionally, rate cuts stimulate growth by making borrowing cheaper. But I believe the increased liquidity from these rate cuts may be used more for managing government fiscal challenges, such as refilling the Treasury and paying off national debt, rather than stimulating the economy.
This approach differs significantly from the economic expansion during the Reagan era, which suggests a more complex and perhaps less optimistic outcome for the stock market in the coming years.
I created a $BTC analyst agent (thanks to OpenAI) to predict future $BTC price move. Here is how we collaborated:
To calculate the Bitcoin price prediction, we followed a multi-step process leveraging both your uploaded data and my analytical capabilities as Crypto Analyst:
Data Utilization: We began by examining the file "BTC-USD since 2014.09.17 -2023.12.02.csv", which contained historical Bitcoin price data. This dataset provided a comprehensive view of Bitcoin's price movements over time.
Model Reference: We then referred to the insights from the source. This source offered various analytical models and insights, such as the Bitcoin stock-to-flow model, trading rules based on halving cycles, and other technical indicators like RSI and moving averages.
Analysis and Synthesis: Combining these two sources, I performed a detailed analysis. This involved applying the concepts from the PlanB insights, such as halving impacts and stock-to-flow ratios, to the historical price data.
Predictive Modeling: Using this combined analysis, we constructed predictive models. For instance, we looked at the trends surrounding halving events and their historical impact on Bitcoin's price to estimate future movements.
Ongoing Updates and Refinements: Throughout this process, we constantly updated and refined our models and predictions based on the latest available data and insights, ensuring that our analysis remained current and relevant.
By working together, we were able to utilize your data effectively and apply sophisticated analytical methods to derive insightful predictions about Bitcoin's price trends.
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I made my first GPT chatbot - SDR Dynamo, your go-to AI for all things sales development - the latest strategies, trends, and learning resources to help #SDR excel. Stay ahead in sales with tailored advice, industry updates, and pro tips. https://chat.openai.com/g/g-dhrrBee2C-sdr-dynamo
#SDRSuccess
https://m.primal.net/HOHy.png Recession never took over the economic steering gear. We have been in inflationary expansion since May 2003 till today Oct 20, 2023. Will situation change? At least the monthly chart is slow to tell.
Past boom & bust cycles were violent. Since the liquidity eased in Oct. 2022, everything has been under control. No big swings. There will be rolling recessions or growths, intertwined and alternating
Don't see a major collapse in the US market. Elsewhere? All hands on deck.
https://m.primal.net/HOHy.png Recession never took over the economic steering gear. We have been in inflationary expansion since May 2003 till today Oct 20, 2003. Will situation change? At least the monthly chart is slow to tell.
The potential impacts of the Israel-Hamas escalation on the US inflation, interest rate and stock prices:
1. Oil supply fears fan inflation risks. With M2 money supply already constrained by central banks, this extra inflation impulse would be more persistent.
2. To counter rising inflation, the Fed may have to accelerate interest rate hikes and quantitative tightening. This would reduce liquidity further when it is already flat.
3. Stocks would likely price in higher recession odds over a 6-12 month horizon. The strong dollar adversely impacts US earnings from overseas. This could weigh on stocks as well.
The potential impacts of the Israel-Hamas escalation on the US inflation, interest rate and stock prices:
1. Oil supply fears fan inflation risks. With M2 money supply already constrained by central banks, this extra inflation impulse would be more persistent.
2. To counter rising inflation, the Fed may have to accelerate interest rate hikes and quantitative tightening. This would reduce liquidity further when it is already flat.
3. Stocks would likely price in higher recession odds over a 6-12 month horizon. The strong dollar adversely impacts US earnings from overseas. This could weigh on stocks as well.
We're continuously moving in and out of minor rolling recessions. Past few weeks feel like we're coming out of a small one, so will we dip into another economic slowdown in Q1 next year, then quickly recover again? A sweeping Fed rate cut doesn't seem necessary, targeted stimuli for sectors needing it, quick capital injection and withdrawal, seems like something Fed CBDC could enable.
American is taking down the BRICS one by one. The US took care of South Africa first, and South Africa shrank back without making a peep. Now it has sent Canada and the UK to deal with India, to see whether Modi will obey or not. Most recently, Israel is ready to enter Gaza. The ultimate target is Iran or Saudi Arabia? Or both?
Don't Count on a Fed Rate Cut Before 2025
The Ship Has Sailed three years ago
FLEXTIGER
SEP 20, 2023
The Federal Reserve has been aggressively raising interest rates in 2022 to fight high inflation. But with signs of economic slowdown emerging, many investors expect the Fed to reverse course and start cutting rates sometime in 2023. However, a closer look at recent economic data and the Fed's own communications suggests rate cuts may not actually materialize until 2025 or later. Here's why:
- The Fed Already Front-Loaded Rate Cuts in 2019-2020
https://m.primal.net/HLjl.png
Most analysis of the Fed's rate changes focuses narrowly on 2020, when the central bank slashed rates to near zero to fight the COVID-induced recession. But the timeline actually started earlier. The first rate cut came in July 2019, as global growth slowed amid trade tensions. The Fed then proceeded to cut rates 3 more times in 2019, putting them back near post-crisis lows even before the pandemic hit US shores.
This means that the Fed front-loaded stimulus ahead of the recession, getting out in front of the downturn far faster than in the past. Rate cuts usually happen slowly over the course of a recession. But in this case, the Fed compacted the equivalent of several years' worth of cuts into just 7 months.
They then reinforced those cuts with trillions of dollars in quantitative easing once the pandemic took hold. This ultra-accommodative monetary response was only possible because the Fed had gotten a head start.
- We May Already Be Near the End of a Short Recession
https://m.primal.net/HLjm.png
Most economists peg the pandemic recession as lasting just 2 months - the shortest in US history, thanks to unprecedented stimulus. After a quick V-shaped recovery, growth plateaued in 2022 before slowing again amidst inflation and geopolitical turmoil.
However, we could view the last 2 years as containing two distinct, brief recessions triggered by external shocks - the pandemic and the Ukraine war. Some indicators like jobless claims and consumer confidence suggest the US may now be emerging from the second mini-recession.
Recent comments from business leaders also hint at turning sentiment. Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff announced plans on September 15, 2023 to start rehiring employees laid off just months ago, suggesting he sees a recovery on the horizon.
Recent GDP and unemployment forecasts support this idea. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracker shows the economy growing at a 2.9% pace in Q3 after two quarters of contraction. And the Congressional Budget Office has revised down its unemployment projections, with the jobless rate now expected to hold near 50-year lows through 2025.
This paints a picture of an economy approaching a "Goldilocks" state - not too hot, not too cold. With inflation still well above target, the Fed does not need to goose growth further with rate cuts.
- Core Inflation is Projected to Remain Above 2%
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The Fed has made clear that fighting inflation is its top priority now. But private forecasts see core PCE inflation - the Fed's preferred gauge - remaining above the 2% target through at least 2025.
In their latest Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), Fed officials forecast core inflation to still be 2.3% in 2023 and 2.1% in 2024 before settling at 2% in 2025. Expectations remain unanchored.
With inflation so sticky and resilient, the Fed is highly unlikely to cut rates anytime soon and run the risk of igniting inflation further. Rate hikes are still firmly on the table.
- Major Crises Follow Rate Cuts, Not Precede Them
Historically, recessions and financial crises have tended to occur years after Fed rate cuts, not before. This pattern played out in both 2001 and 2008.
One hypothesis is that post-rate cut periods, characterized by easy money and booming markets, lead to excessive risk appetite that eventually results in a crash. Cutting rates from already low levels now could lay the seeds for the next crisis later this decade.
If this historical pattern holds, the next recession may not emerge until the late 2020s. This would likely postpone it until after the 2024 election, avoiding economic turmoil during President Biden's potential second term.
While the case for no rate cuts until 2025 looks reasonably strong, there are some counterpoints to address:
+Recession models from Wall Street banks show elevated risks of a downturn in 2023 as rate hikes compound.
+Rising geopolitical turmoil and energy shock risks from the Ukraine war could trigger a recession.
+Stubbornly high inflation may force the Fed to overtighten until something breaks, even though a mild US recession alone may not bring inflation down.
The Fed has historically eased policy preemptively when risks build to provide insurance and ensure a soft landing.
Ultimately the Fed remains data dependent. A material reassessment of the economic outlook could always change their calculus. But as things stand today, the path of least resistance appears to be toward restraint rather than accommodation over the next 2-3 years. The era of easy money is likely behind us for now.
Just two months after the outbreak of the pandemic in 2020, before vaccines were available, Benioff had already started calling for the Fed to cut interest rates. The Fed took action immediately. I don't think it was solely because of Benioff's words that they were so responsive, but rather that he had received early notice that the Fed was going to cut rates to 0. By coming out as an industry leader to "call for" rate cuts, it provided justification for the Fed to implement them.
https://m.primal.net/HLal.png
On September 15, 2023, the last day of Salesforce 2023 Dreamforce event, Marc Benioff start rehiring employees that were just laid off? "It's okay. Come back!" So he must already know something about the economy and is scooping up talent before other companies realize things have changed.
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Since October 2022, the Fed and Treasury seem to be cooperating behind the scenes - easing quantitatively while raising rates to keep inflation under 3% without impacting people. The Fed cutting its MBS holdings, Treasury issuing short-term debt frequently. Congress smoothly raised the debt ceiling, government increased spending. The close coordination between Fed and Treasury helped the US avoid high unemployment and wage declines for now, but long-term effects of inflation remain to be seen.
Copy
Word is China's been banning iPhones everywhere - nuclear power plants, hospitals in Inner Mongolia, you name it. Employees are saying it's to stop U.S. spying through iOS security holes. These informal bans go back years for some agencies. It's Beijing's way of telling $AAPL and other American companies that tech restrictions are getting real intense real fast amid the sour relations with Washington. For Apple, it's gotta be pretty concerning given China's like 15% of their revenue. With how things are going between the superpowers, $AAPL's gonna have a heck of a time thriving in that vital market. As tensions rise, the iPhone maker faces new hurdles to keep growing in China. What's next?
Analysis by TechInsights of the new Huawei Mate 60 Pro smartphone reveals it contains a HiSilicon Kirin 9000s application processor manufactured using SMIC's enhanced 7nm (N+2) process technology. This demonstrates Huawei and China's continued resilience and technological progress in semiconductor design and manufacturing despite US trade restrictions. The Kirin 9000s chip is about 2% larger than the previous version but shows advancements like logic gate pitch shrinkage that bring SMIC's process closer to competitors' 7nm nodes, all without using EUV lithography. This semiconductor achievement could help revive Huawei's smartphone sales but may also prompt further technology restrictions from other concerned countries.
Here's a 560 character tweet incorporating $AAPL and more conversational language:
Word is China's been banning iPhones everywhere - nuclear power plants, hospitals in Inner Mongolia, you name it. Employees are saying it's to stop U.S. spying through iOS security holes. These informal bans go back years for some agencies. It's Beijing's way of telling $AAPL and other American companies that tech restrictions are getting real intense real fast amid the sour relations with Washington. For Apple, it's gotta be pretty concerning given China's like 15% of their revenue. With how things are going between the superpowers, $AAPL's gonna have a heck of a time thriving in that vital market. As tensions rise, the iPhone maker faces new hurdles to keep growing in China. What's next?
Rate cuts alone won't grow more crops faster. It can't fix the supply problems. Don't expect miracles from the Fed lowering rates. Subsequent inflation will surely chip away real purchasing power despite higher nominal incomes. #wage #monetarypolicy #foodprice #foodcrisis
Rate cuts alone can't fix the supply problems. Don't expect miracles from the Fed lowering rates. It won't grow more crops and faster. However, inflation will surely chip away real purchasing power despite higher nominal incomes. #wage #monetarypolicy #foodprice #foodcrisis
Crisis to Innovation: My First AI Trading Strategy Addresses Food Costs
Flextiger / 摺叠虎
In the vast universe of investing, the initial step often poses a significant challenge. As one might hesitate before writing the first sentence of an email, designing an investment strategy can be daunting. While many may relate, especially when using tools like Composer, there’s good news. I leveraged my economic and investment knowledge to design an algorithmic strategy with AI help.
https://miro.medium.com/v2/resize:fit:4800/format:webp/1*ULPKZh4ybZAGT_OkJwl_yg.png
The Collaboration:
Our journey began by coaching the AI through examples and feedback to grasp nuances of Composer’s coding language. My core thesis was to benefit from rising food prices in late 2023–2024. The strategy pivoted investments to food stocks when they outperformed QQQ, an ETF tracking the tech-heavy Nasdaq-100. If QQQ performed better, it reverted investments there.
The initial generated code had errors. Rigorous backtesting revealed flaws, so the AI and I refined the strategy. Subsequent backtests were promising.
https://miro.medium.com/v2/resize:fit:4800/format:webp/1*kxKdEHglnPzx6UDgxCl9Lw.png
The Final Strategy: A Dynamic Food vs. Tech Approach
With global food costs rising, this strategy capitalizes on anticipated price surges. It compares food-related assets to the Nasdaq-100 index (QQQ ETF) and allocates funds accordingly. When food stocks show strength, it seizes the opportunity. Underperformance triggers a pivot back to QQQ for broader resilience.
Key Backtest Results:
Annualized Return: 56.4%
Max Drawdown: 7.2%
Sharpe Ratio: 2.73
https://miro.medium.com/v2/resize:fit:4800/format:webp/1*cT-rn066waJCH2ukQjhjdw.png
(Generated via simulation. Not indicative of actual performance.)
Reflections on Human vs. AI Collaboration:
In algorithmic strategy design, AI like Composer offers undeniable efficiency. However, human expertise remains irreplaceable. A strategy stems from understanding economics, portfolio theory, and risk preferences — insights an AI alone cannot replicate.
The AI acts as an able driver to efficiently translate our vision into rigorously tested code. But human knowledge provides the strategic roadmap and navigation. Together, we accomplish more than either could alone. This proves investing still requires human intuition.
As AI capabilities grow, remembering the value of human intellect will be critical. For now, and likely the future, investment strategies will thrive on human guidance and knowledge.
If you are interested in trying my Food Price vs. QQQ Strategy, here is the link to it (https://app.composer.trade/symphony/FoGFGuWwaOy1vD2wehjc/details). Here is the logic behind the strategy.
https://miro.medium.com/v2/resize:fit:4800/format:webp/1*0sbnl_4UH0hHWceUgwMBqQ.png
If this glimpse into creating an AI-assisted trading strategy was intriguing, I encourage you to try Composer using my referral code zpxGrUX-TRADE to register and trade. By signing up and trading through this link, you can help support my work in writing more fascinating articles like this one. Composer makes it easy for anyone to develop algorithms — whether you’re an experienced quant or just starting out. The intuitive interface translates ideas into profitable automated strategies. An AI can even learn the ropes with some guidance!
My LN Address: flextiger@getalby.com
My Nostr:
npub1gu5m9syh529vkw4ncq688cevd8ye3ux5ke70lv30w0dywcr5kj5smavf6c
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/flex-tiger-23b930229/
Medium: Flextiger
Twitter: FlextigerA
Composer
Algorithmic Trading
Ai Trading
Stock Trading
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nostr:note1gs8zyg7krenhz42tx5ufv8e5pfalv5e00pk0wsr7y648mhakcjdqgckmsn
It seems that $AAPL ban in China is not just about the iPhone, but all Apple products. The latest notification has also included Apple Watch and AirPod wireless earbuds in the list of banned items, which cannot be brought into the government workplace all country.
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