Oddbean new post about | logout
 I anticipate the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts in 2024, but I'm considering their broader economic implications quite different from our expectation. 

Traditionally, rate cuts stimulate growth by making borrowing cheaper. But I believe the increased liquidity from these rate cuts may be used more for managing government fiscal challenges, such as refilling the Treasury and paying off national debt, rather than stimulating the economy.

This approach differs significantly from the economic expansion during the Reagan era, which suggests a more complex and perhaps less optimistic outcome for the stock market in the coming years.