Federal Reserve speakers Monday include Bowman, Kashkari, Bostic and Musalem
==========

Federal Reserve officials have 20 speaking engagements this week; Michelle Bowman speaks at 1700 GMT at the Independent Bankers Association of Texas Annual Convention; Neel Kashkari speaks at 1750 GMT at the Bank Holding Company Association Fall Seminar; Raphael Bostic moderates a discussion at 2200 GMT in Atlanta; Alberto Musalem speaks at 2230 GMT on U.S. economy and monetary policy; next Fed meeting is on November 6-7, 2024; latest data suggests a 25 basis point rate cut; U.S. September non-farm payrolls increased by 254K, exceeding the 140K expectation.

#FederalReserve #Bowman #Kashkari #Bostic #Musalem #SpeakingEngagements #UsEconomy #RateCut #NonfarmPayrolls #EconomicData

https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/federal-reserve-speakers-monday-include-bowman-kashkari-bostic-and-musalem-20241007/ 

 Nomura says FOMC focused on bolstering the US economy ... "inflation less important" | Forexlive
==========

Nomura believes that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is prioritizing the strengthening of the US economy and considers inflation to be less important. They also mention that the 'event premium' on today's Consumer Price Index (CPI) announcement is fairly high. Nomura states that downside risk in the US equity markets has decreased, citing macro hedge funds buying into the pullback. They also note that the downside risk posed by systematic investors is now less serious. Volatility levels are expected to remain elevated due to uncertainty surrounding the US economy. Nomura suggests that the market assigns higher event premiums to economic indicators, given the increased uncertainty. Members of the FOMC are signaling a focus on keeping the US economy healthy, which implies that indicators of inflation are seen as less important. However, the event premium assigned to this week's CPI announcement is still fairly high.

#Nomura #Fomc #UsEconomy #Inflation #EquityMarkets #Volatility #Cpi

https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/nomura-says-fomc-focused-on-bolstering-the-us-economy-inflation-less-important-20240813/ 

 EURUSD Technical Analysis – The risk-off sentiment weighs on the pair
==========

The EURUSD pair fell below the 1.09 handle and extended the drop due to risk-off sentiment. The USD has been rallying against major currencies, although the trigger is unclear. The market expects at least two rate cuts by the end of the year. The US economy remains resilient, supporting risk sentiment. Trump's potential win and inflationary policies may slow down rate cuts. The ECB continues to wait for data before deciding on a rate cut. On the daily chart, EURUSD fell below 1.09 and sellers are targeting the 1.0812 support. On the 4-hour chart, sellers are leaning on a downward trendline and targeting a break below 1.0812. On the 1-hour chart, there is consolidation at the 1.0850 level. Upcoming catalysts include US Jobless Claims figures, US Q2 Advance GDP, Tokyo CPI, and US PCE reports.

#Eurusd #TechnicalAnalysis #RiskoffSentiment

https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/eurusd-technical-analysis-the-risk-off-sentiment-weighs-on-the-pair-20240725/ 

 USDJPY Technical Analysis – Keep an eye on this important resistance
==========

The USDJPY pair rallied back to retest a key resistance and moved lower. The USD regained some strength in the latter part of last week. The market expects at least two rate cuts by the end of the year. The US economy remains resilient with inflation falling back to target. The JPY is losing ground against major currencies. USDJPY broke through the key trendline around the 158.00 level, sellers remain in control. Strong resistance zone around the 158.00 handle. Interesting zone between the 156.50 and 157.00 levels. Upcoming catalysts include the release of Japanese and US Flash PMIs, US Jobless Claims figures, Tokyo CPI, and US PCE reports.



https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/usdjpy-technical-analysis-keep-an-eye-on-this-important-resistance-20240722/ 

 ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: USD added a little to its gains
==========

China's senior party official says China's economic recovery is not strong enough; Japan PM Kishida says need to be cautious about effect of rising prices due to weak yen; Japan finance minister Suzuki scolds government minister speaking about markets; China says it will encourage the development and expansion of private economy; Japan private sector economic council members say can't overlook weak yen negative effects; Japan government minister Kono says he is not directly requesting the BOJ raise rates now; Wall Street Journal: "Top Democrats reportedly prepare for a campaign without Biden"; PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate for today at 7.1315 (vs. estimate at 7.2706); New reports that Biden campaign is calling an all-staff meeting on Friday; Explosion reported in Tel Aviv - cause is unclear - looks to be near US consulate; BNP Paribas target 1.06 for EUR/USD; Japan data - June CPI Headline 2.8% y/y (vs. 2.9% expected); Westpac eyeing Australia expected to follow the same broad disinflation trend as peers; UK consumer confidence in July hits its highest in nearly 3 years; Fed's Daly sees inflation data improving, but says not at target yet; JP Morgan says they do not expect a Bank of Japan rate hike in July, or at all in 2024; NYT: Biden has begun to accept that he may not win in Nov, may have to drop out; Macquarie warns on populist US economic policies fueling inflation, shallow Fed rate cuts; UBS boost their end year S&P 500 target to 5900; Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly spoke, sounding a little less dovish than her FOMC colleagues have recently; Japanese inflation data for June shows an increase in the 'core-core' rate of inflation; Chinese Communist Party officials made positive comments about economic reform at the Third Plenum outcome news conference; Explosion reported in Tel Aviv due to a drone attack; Major FX traded in small ranges with the USD inching higher; Gold and oil prices fell; Donald Trump warns US Fed chair not to cut rates before the election; Global hedge funds reducing exposure to US stocks for 5 days in a row; US stocks advance after stronger retail sales; BOJ data does not suggest evidence of intervention on 17 July; IMF says Fed should wait until at least late 2024 to cut rates

#Usd #China #Japan #Boj #Biden #TelAviv #Eur/usd #Inflation #Fed #S&p500

https://www.forexlive.com/news/forexlive-asia-pacific-fx-news-wrap-usd-added-a-little-to-its-gains-20240719/ 

 ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: USD added a little to its gains
==========

China's senior party official says China's economic recovery is not strong enough; Japan PM Kishida says need to be cautious about effect of rising prices due to weak yen; Japan finance minister Suzuki scolds government minister speaking about markets; China says it will encourage the development and expansion of private economy; Japan private sector economic council members say can't overlook weak yen negative effects; Japan government minister Kono says he is not directly requesting the BOJ raise rates now; Wall Street Journal: "Top Democrats reportedly prepare for a campaign without Biden"; PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate for today at 7.1315 (vs. estimate at 7.2706); New reports that Biden campaign is calling an all-staff meeting on Friday; Explosion reported in Tel Aviv - cause is unclear - looks to be near US consulate; BNP Paribas target 1.06 for EUR/USD; Japan data - June CPI Headline 2.8% y/y (vs. 2.9% expected); Westpac eyeing Australia expected to follow the same broad disinflation trend as peers; UK consumer confidence in July hits its highest in nearly 3 years; Fed's Daly sees inflation data improving, but says not at target yet; JP Morgan says they do not expect a Bank of Japan rate hike in July, or at all in 2024; NYT: Biden has begun to accept that he may not win in Nov, may have to drop out; Macquarie warns on populist US economic policies fueling inflation, shallow Fed rate cuts; UBS boost their end year S&P 500 target to 5900; Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly spoke, sounding a little less dovish than her FOMC colleagues have recently; Japanese inflation data for June shows an increase in the 'core-core' rate of inflation; Chinese Communist Party officials made positive comments about economic reform at the Third Plenum outcome news conference; Explosion reported in Tel Aviv due to a drone attack; Major FX traded in small ranges with the USD inching higher; Gold and oil prices fell; Donald Trump warns US Fed chair not to cut rates before the election; Global hedge funds reducing exposure to US stocks for 5 days in a row; US stocks advance after stronger retail sales; BOJ data does not suggest evidence of intervention on 17 July; IMF says Fed should wait until at least late 2024 to cut rates

#Usd #China #Japan #Boj #Biden #TelAviv #Eur/usd #Inflation #Fed #S&p500

https://www.forexlive.com/news/forexlive-asia-pacific-fx-news-wrap-usd-added-a-little-to-its-gains-20240719/ 

 Are high rates endangering the US economy?
==========

The US economy is facing challenges despite reaching new highs in the stock market. Growth rates are slowing, job creation is below expectations, and the ISM manufacturing and services indices have fallen. The number of corporate bankruptcies is increasing due to high interest rates, with June seeing a historic spike in filings. Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell expressed concern about keeping rates too high for too long. The likelihood of lowering rates in September is growing as the economy slows and inflation approaches the 2% target. However, the Fed remains cautious about easing policy too soon. The ratio of US growth stocks to value stocks and the share of the technology sector in the S&P 500 have reached their highest points since the Dotcom bubble, leading to predictions of a significant drop in the stock market. The US economic calendar is busy, with the new earnings season starting and reports from big banks expected. The article advises monitoring macroeconomic data and warns that bad economic news in the US is currently benefiting bonds, stocks, and gold, but takes the economy further away from a soft landing.

#UsEconomy #InterestRates #StockMarket #CorporateBankruptcies #FederalReserve #Inflation #S&p500 #EarningsSeason

https://www.forexlive.com/Education/are-high-rates-endangering-the-us-economy-20240712/ 

 Federal Reserve speakers on Wednesday include Bostic and Musalem
==========

On Wednesday, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic will participate in a discussion on economic inclusion before the National Credit Union Administration Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion (DEI) Summit at 15:30 GMT / 11:30 US Eastern time. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President Alberto Musalem will participate in a fireside chat on the U.S. economy and monetary policy before the Little Rock Regional Chamber's Power Up Little Rock event at 17:00 GMT / 13:00 US Eastern time. Musalem's event is going to be of interest to traders.



https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/federal-reserve-speakers-on-wednesday-include-bostic-and-musalem-20240710/ 

 The one critical number to watch for an August Reserve Bank Australia interest rate hike
==========

The critical number to watch for an August Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) interest rate hike is the Q2 trimmed mean inflation. If the Q2 trimmed mean CPI is 1.1% or above, an August rate hike is more likely. However, if it is 0.9% or less, the RBA is expected to leave the cash rate on hold. A Q2 trimmed mean CPI result of 1.0% is considered in the 'grey zone', and other important data, such as the June labor force survey, will also factor into the decision. The official CPI data is due on July 31, and the RBA meeting follows on August 5 and 6.

#ReserveBankOfAustralia #InterestRateHike #Inflation #Cpi #TrimmedMeanCpi

https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/the-one-critical-number-to-watch-for-an-august-reserve-bank-australia-interest-rate-hike-20240707/ 

 Newsquawk Week Ahead: US CPI, Powell testimony and US earnings
==========

Next week highlights include US CPI, Fed Chair Powell testimonies, a BoJ bond meeting, the RBNZ policy announcement, second round of French elections, US earnings and more. French Legislative Election, Round 2 (Sun): Exit polls and some constituency results will be available when polls close at 19:00BST/14:00ET. BoJ Bond Meeting (Tue): The BoJ will hold its bond meeting between July 9th and 10th - a confab that will be significant as the central bank begins discussions on its bond-tapering plans. Powell Testimony (Tue, Wed): Fed Chair Powell will give testimony to the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday, and the House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday. RBNZ Announcement (Wed): The RBNZ will conduct its latest Monetary Policy Review next week where the central bank is likely to maintain the Official Cash Rate at the current level. Chinese Inflation (Wed): CPI Y/Y is expected to accelerate to 0.4% from 0.3%, and M/M is seen at 0% (prev. -0.1%). Norwegian CPI (Wed): June’s CPI-ATE needs to come in comfortably below the 4.1% prior and towards 3.5% for the Norges Bank’s 3.99% Q2 forecast to hold. UK GDP Estimate (Thu): Expectations are for the M/M to lift to 0.2% from 0.0% with the 3M rate by extension increasing to 0.8% from 0.7%. US CPI (Thu): The consensus looks for US CPI to rise 0.1% M/M in June, while the core rate of CPI is seen rising +0.2% M/M. US Corporate Earnings (Fri): Q2 bank earnings will begin on Friday, with the likes of JPM, WFC, and C reporting.

#UsCpi #PowellTestimony #UsEarnings

https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/newsquawk-week-ahead-us-cpi-powell-testimony-and-us-earnings-20240707/ 

 NY Fed Pres. Williams: Rate cut path depends on data
==========

NY Fed President Williams stated that the rate cut path will depend on data and that the US economy is doing well and in better balance. He emphasized that the Fed's decision will depend on the economy and that things are moving in the right direction for monetary policy. Williams expects interest rates to come down gradually as inflation eases and stated that politics will not influence the Fed's decision. He mentioned that the recent inflation data has been encouraging and expects inflation to continue to come down. Williams also mentioned that the Fed will get inflation down to 2% and that the labor market is still strong, although hiring is slowing. In the US stock market, the Dow Industrial Average is up 20 points, the S&P is up four points, and the NASDAQ index is up 32.25 points in premarket trading. The stock levels are off their highs, but the NASDAQ and S&P closed at record high levels yesterday.

#NyFed #InterestRates #UsEconomy #Inflation #MonetaryPolicy

https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/ny-fed-pres-williams-rate-cut-path-depends-on-data-20240618/ 

 ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: Ueda says BoJ may hike rate at July meeting
==========

Bank of Japan Governor Ueda stated that there is a chance the BoJ could raise interest rates at the July meeting, depending on economic data available at the time. Ueda also mentioned that higher import costs from the weak yen may negatively impact household spending, but increasing wages will help underpin consumption and he expected the economy to remain on track for a moderate recovery. The USD/JPY exchange rate did not move much in response to Ueda's comments. Other news includes the PBOC setting the USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1148, Singapore's May non-oil domestic exports down 0.1% y/y, and New Zealand's Q2 consumer confidence falling to 82.2 from 93.2 in Q1. US retail sales data for May and speeches from several Federal Reserve officials are expected later in the day.

#BankOfJapan #InterestRates #Usd/jpy #ImportCosts #HouseholdSpending #Wages #Consumption #EconomicRecovery #Pboc #Usd/cny #SingaporeNonoilDomesticExports #NewZealandConsumerConfidence #UsRetailSales #FederalReserve

https://www.forexlive.com/news/forexlive-asia-pacific-fx-news-wrap-ueda-says-boj-may-hike-rate-at-july-meeting-20240618/ 

 Japan economic 'roadmap' leak getting another outing after disastrous economic slump data
==========

Japan's Q1 GDP contracted by 1.8%, prompting the leak of the Japanese government's annual economic blueprint. The government will highlight the need to work closely with the central bank and guide policy flexibly in response to soft consumption and uncertainty over the inflation outlook. The government also flagged overseas risks such as monetary tightening by central banks and worries about soft Chinese growth. The leak occurred last week as well.

#Japan #Economy #Gdp #Government #CentralBank #Inflation #Consumption #MonetaryTightening #ChineseGrowth

https://www.forexlive.com/news/japan-economic-roadmap-leak-getting-another-outing-after-disastrous-economic-slump-data-20240610/ 

 Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 20 May. Nasdaq closes at record. USD moves higher.
==========

The Nasdaq closed at a record high and the USD strengthened in North American trading on May 20, 2024. Crude oil settled at $79.80. Cleveland Fed President Mester stated that monetary policies are restrictive and the neutral rate may be higher. Microsoft introduced Copilot Plus PCs, causing the price of MSFT to move closer to an all-time high. The IMF reported that the Russian Federation raised its gold holdings by 3.110 tonnes to 2,335.93 tonnes in April. US Defense Secretary Austin wants Israel to carry out more precise strikes in geopolitics. SF Fed President Mary Daly expressed uncertainty about inflation coming down to 2%. European major indices closed higher. Fed Governor Jefferson stated that it is too early to say if April CPI started a new trend. Fed Governor Barr described Q1 inflation as disappointing and did not provide confidence to ease policy. Sky News Arabia suggested that Israel should invade Lebanon to completely destroy Hezbollah. Fed Governor Waller did not comment on monetary policy or the economy. The GBP was the strongest currency, while the NZD was the weakest. US yields moved higher, and US stocks ended the session with mixed results.

#FxTrading #StockMarket #Usd #Nasdaq

https://www.forexlive.com/news/forexlive-americas-fx-news-wrap-20-may-nasdaq-closes-at-record-usd-moves-higher-20240520/ 

 Rising yields put some pressure on equities
==========

Rising yields have put pressure on equities, with US stocks at the lows of the day. As oil prices have climbed, so have yields, causing stocks to take notice. The S&P 500 is down 13 points to 5284 from a high of 5305. There is also skepticism about growth, with some money managers arguing for ongoing durability in the US economy. Fed funds futures pricing is down to 45 bps this year, reflecting the strengthening wealth effect from stock markets. The energy market, particularly WTI crude and July natural gas, is also impacting equities. WTI crude is up 1% and flirting with $80, while July natural gas is near $2.75 as US production falls. Oil prices have quickly turned around on signs that OPEC+ will extend its production agreement. The meeting was moved to virtual, suggesting it's a rubber stamp. Goldman Sachs predicts Q2 GDP growth of 3.2%, while the Atlanta Fed predicts 3.6%. Fed pricing may move from two rate cuts to three next. The article also includes various advertisements and links to other content.

#Equities #Yields #Stocks #OilPrices #GdpGrowth #FedFundsFutures #Opec+

https://www.forexlive.com/news/rising-yields-put-some-pressure-on-equities-20240517/ 

 What are the main events to look out for today? | Forexlive
==========

The main events to look out for today include the release of the US PPI figures, the US NFIB report, and a speech by Fed Chair Powell. The US Core PPI Y/Y is expected at 2.4% vs. 2.4% prior, while the Core M/M measure is seen at 0.2% vs. 0.2% prior. The US PPI measures changes in prices that manufacturers pay for goods during various stages of production. Before the PPI report, the US NFIB Small Business Optimism Index is expected to tick lower to 88.1 vs. 88.5 prior. This index is a leading indicator as small businesses generate roughly 45% of US economic activity. Finally, Fed Chair Powell is expected to speak, but it's unlikely that he will deviate from his recent comments before the US CPI report due tomorrow.

#UsPpi #UsNfib #FedChairPowell #EconomicIndicators

https://www.forexlive.com/news/what-are-the-main-events-to-look-out-for-today-20240514/ 

 US indices look to data next week for the next push
==========

Major US indices are preparing to retest record highs next week after a slight increase this week. The S&P 500 index is up over 1% this week, thanks in part to a jump on Monday. The recent drop in the S&P 500 was halted near its 100-day moving average before bouncing back. The change in the Fed outlook, with traders now expecting two rate cuts instead of one, has helped boost stocks. Next week, the US will release PPI, CPI, and retail sales data, which will be important indicators for potential rate cuts by the Fed. If the data shows easing price pressures and a softening economy, traders may price in more rate cuts. Early signals of employment conditions turning around have already been seen. If other data points confirm this, stocks may start running again. The article asks whether softer US data will cause stocks to cool off or if stagflation risks and a weaker economy will lead to a more cautious approach from investors.

#UsIndices #StockMarket #Data #RateCuts #FedOutlook

https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-indices-look-to-data-next-week-for-the-next-push-20240509/ 

 El Erian says the US economy and stocks have likely dodged a recession
==========

Mohamed A. El-Erian, Chief Economic Advisor at Allianz SE, believes that the US economy and stocks have likely avoided a recession. He states that the US is the sole major engine of global growth in an increasingly less-stable world. El-Erian predicts a 50% chance of a US soft landing, a 15% chance of higher growth with no additional inflationary pressures and genuine financial stability, and a 35% chance of recession and new threats of financial instability. He also mentions that sticky inflation combined with slower growth will put the Federal Reserve in a difficult position.

#UsEconomy #Stocks #Recession #GlobalGrowth #Inflation #FederalReserve

https://www.forexlive.com/news/el-erian-says-the-us-economy-and-stocks-have-likely-dodged-a-recession-20240429/ 

 US data focus for Monday - Q1 advance GDP - the range of expectations to watch (and why)
==========

On Thursday at 1230 GMT, the advance reading for economic growth in the US for the Q1 will be released. The range of expectations is 1.0% to 3.1% y/y, with a consensus of 2.5%. Goldman Sachs is expecting a Q1 GDP number of 3.1%. Knowledge of these ranges is important for traders as data results that fall outside of market low and high expectations tend to move markets more significantly. This can lead to rapid revaluation of assets, psychological impact, risk reassessment, triggering of automated trading, impact on monetary and fiscal policies, liquidity and market depth, and chain reactions and correlations.

#UsData #Q1AdvanceGdp #Expectations #Traders #MarketImpact

https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/us-data-focus-for-monday-q1-advance-gdp-the-range-of-expectations-to-watch-and-why-20240424/ 

 USD/JPY dip buyers don't hesitate
==========

USD/JPY barely blinked despite a broader US dollar selloff on weaker economic data and dipping Treasury yields. The pair fell to 154.58 and aggressive buyers quickly bought the dip, betting that the Ministry of Finance (MOF) won't intervene. This highlights that fundamentals are backing the pair and it will be tough for anyone to block the path above 155. The article also mentions that eventually the US economy will cool and the Fed will cut, but it will take more than today's soft-ish S&P Global PMI.



https://www.forexlive.com/news/usdjpy-dip-buyers-dont-hesitate-20240423/ 

 ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: Gold continues its slide
==========

Gold continued to slide during Asian trading on April 23, 2024, dropping below $2,300 with no fresh news as a catalyst. The US is reportedly drafting sanctions that could cut some Chinese banks off from the global financial system due to their involvement in Russia's war on Ukraine. Japan's finance minister Suzuki stated that discussions in Washington laid the groundwork for Japan to take appropriate FX action. The Bank of Japan Governor Ueda reiterated the BOJ's intention to raise its benchmark interest rate if underlying inflation rises toward the 2% target. The US stock market slide is not over, according to JP Morgan's Kolanovic. Vanguard's base scenario is a "deferred landing" for the US economy with less aggressive Fed cuts. BlackRock's Rieder sees the Federal Reserve being able to lower interest rates twice this year. The Swiss National Bank is being urged to include cryptocurrency in their reserves. Australia's preliminary PMI Manufacturing for April was 49.9 (prior 47.3) and Services was 54.2 (prior 54.4). Japan's preliminary PMI Manufacturing for April was 49.9 (prior 48.2) and Services was 54.6 (prior 54.1).

#Gold #Forex #Sanctions #Japan #Boj #UsStocks #Fed #Cryptocurrency #Pmi

https://www.forexlive.com/news/forexlive-asia-pacific-fx-news-wrap-gold-continues-its-slide-20240423/ 

 Vanguard's base scenario is a "deferred landing" for US economy, less aggressive Fed cuts
==========

Vanguard's global head of rates expects less aggressive Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) rate cuts due to global risks of a rebound in price pressures and signs of stubborn inflation in the US. Vanguard's base scenario is for a "deferred landing" for the US economy, with continued economic growth and higher inflation than the Federal Reserve wants, but not high enough for interest rate hikes. Vanguard also warns of tail risks such as a rebound in inflation or weakening economic growth. The firm also warns of fiscal profligacy if either of the presidential candidates campaigns on a platform of fiscal expansion.

#Vanguard #UsEconomy #FederalReserve #InterestRateCuts #Inflation #EconomicGrowth

https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/vanguards-base-scenario-is-a-deferred-landing-for-us-economy-less-aggressive-fed-cuts-20240422/ 

 Vanguard's base scenario is a "deferred landing" for US economy, less aggressive Fed cuts
==========

Vanguard's global head of rates expects less aggressive Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) rate cuts due to global risks of a rebound in price pressures and signs of stubborn inflation in the US. Vanguard's base scenario is for a "deferred landing" for the US economy, with continued economic growth and higher inflation than the Federal Reserve wants, but not high enough for interest rate hikes. Vanguard also warns of tail risks such as a rebound in inflation or weakening economic growth. The firm also warns of fiscal profligacy if either of the presidential candidates campaigns on a platform of fiscal expansion.

#Vanguard #UsEconomy #FederalReserve #InterestRateCuts #Inflation #EconomicGrowth

https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/vanguards-base-scenario-is-a-deferred-landing-for-us-economy-less-aggressive-fed-cuts-20240422/ 

 Newsquawk Week Ahead: Highlights include US PCE & GDP, BoJ, PMI data
==========

Next week highlights include the US PCE and GDP data, the BoJ rate decision, Global PMIs, Australian inflation, PBoC LPR and the Bitcoin Halving Event. The Bitcoin halving is an event that occurs approximately every four years in which the reward for mining new blocks is halved. The specific date and time are based on the current average block generation time being maintained at 10 minutes. The PBoC kept its 1-Year Medium-term Lending Facility Rate unchanged at 2.50%. Expectations are for the EZ/UK/US Flash Manufacturing PMI to rise, while the US Q1 GDP is expected to show growth cooling to 2.1%. The BoJ is likely to maintain its policy settings after its monumental policy shift at the last meeting in March. Tokyo’s Core CPI for April is seen cooling to 2.2%. The consensus looks for US headline PCE to rise +0.3% M/M in March. 

#UsPce #UsGdp #Boj #PmiData

https://www.forexlive.com/news/newsquawk-week-ahead-highlights-include-us-pce-gdp-boj-pmi-data-20240421/ 

 US data focus for Monday - March retail sales - the range of expectations to watch
==========

On Monday at 1230 GMT, retail sales for March 2024 will be released. The Federal Reserve will be paying attention to assess the strength of the consumer and the US economy. Consensus expectations for retail sales m/m are -0.2% to +0.6%, and for retail sales excl autos m/m are +0.1% to +0.9%. Knowledge of these ranges is important because data results that fall outside of market low and high expectations tend to move markets more significantly. This can have a surprise effect, psychological impact, trigger automated trading, and impact monetary and fiscal policies. It can also lead to chain reactions and correlations in financial markets.

#UsData #RetailSales #FederalReserve #MarketExpectations

https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-data-focus-for-monday-march-retail-sales-the-range-of-expectations-to-watch-20240415/ 

 Newsquawk Week Ahead: US and UK retail sales, UK, NZ, Canada and Japan inflation
==========

Next week highlights include US and UK retail sales data, inflation reports from the UK, New Zealand, Canada and Japan, employment reports from the UK and Australia, as well as China activity data and the PBoC MLF announcement. The PBoC will conduct its Medium-term Lending Facility operation next week where the central bank will likely maintain the 1-year MLF rate at the current level of 2.50%. US headline retail sales are expected to rise +0.3% M/M in March, while the ex-autos measure is seen rising +0.4% M/M. Chinese Q1 GDP Q/Q is seen at 1.4% and GDP Y/Y is expected at 4.6%. UK unemployment rate in the 3M period is expected to hold steady at 3.9%. Canadian CPI is forecasted at 2.8% Y/Y for March. New Zealand Q1 CPI Q/Q is forecast to tick higher to 0.7% from 0.5%. UK Y/Y CPI is expected to slow to 3.1% from 3.4%. Australian headline employment is expected to print at +15.5k for March. Japanese core CPI Y/Y is expected to rise 2.6%. UK headline M/M retail sales are expected to show no growth.



https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/newsquawk-week-ahead-us-and-uk-retail-sales-uk-nz-canada-and-japan-inflation-20240413/ 

 Newsquawk Week Ahead: US and UK retail sales, UK, NZ, Canada and Japan inflation
==========

Next week highlights include US and UK retail sales data, inflation reports from the UK, New Zealand, Canada and Japan, employment reports from the UK and Australia, as well as China activity data and the PBoC MLF announcement. The PBoC will conduct its Medium-term Lending Facility operation next week where the central bank will likely maintain the 1-year MLF rate at the current level of 2.50%. US headline retail sales are expected to rise +0.3% M/M in March, while the ex-autos measure is seen rising +0.4% M/M. Chinese Q1 GDP Q/Q is seen at 1.4% and GDP Y/Y is expected at 4.6%. UK unemployment rate in the 3M period is expected to hold steady at 3.9%. Canadian CPI is forecasted at 2.8% Y/Y for March. New Zealand Q1 CPI Q/Q is forecast to tick higher to 0.7% from 0.5%. UK Y/Y CPI is expected to slow to 3.1% from 3.4%. Australian headline employment is expected to print at +15.5k for March. Japanese core CPI Y/Y is expected to rise 2.6%. UK headline M/M retail sales are expected to show no growth.



https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/newsquawk-week-ahead-us-and-uk-retail-sales-uk-nz-canada-and-japan-inflation-20240413/ 

 What Does the Latest US Inflation Report Mean for the US Dollar?
==========

The latest inflation report for March showed consumer prices soaring by 3.5%, way above expectations. This means the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates high for longer to fight inflation. As a result, the US dollar is expected to remain strong for a while longer. Analyst firms predict that a rate drop won't happen until late summer or September. Other central banks may start cutting rates before the Fed does, making the USD a rival. In the short term, expect heightened volatility and intricate market movements.

#UsInflation #UsDollar #InterestRates #FederalReserve

https://www.forexlive.com/Education/what-does-the-latest-us-inflation-report-mean-for-the-us-dollar-20240412/ 

 RBC expects a December Federal Reserve rate cut (were previously tipping June) | Forexlive
==========

RBC has revised their forecast for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) this year, now expecting a 25 basis point rate cut in December instead of June. The U.S. economy is showing signs of reacceleration in inflation, with the Fed's "supercore" inflation measure doubling to 8.2% in March compared to last December. RBC has also cut their rate cut expectations for 2024 from three to one. Other banks, such as Deutsche Bank and Bank of America, have also revised their forecasts to expect a December rate cut instead of June.

#FederalReserve #RateCut #Forecast #Economy #Inflation

https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/rbc-expects-a-december-federal-reserve-rate-cut-were-previously-tipping-june-20240411/ 

 Dow Jones Technical Analysis
==========

The Dow Jones opened lower and finished the day negative following another hot CPI report. This has pushed rate cuts expectations further out with the market now pricing in less rate cuts than the Fed’s dot plot. The Treasury yields skyrocketed across the board putting some pressure on the stock market. On the daily chart, the Dow Jones has been trading inside a rising channel and continued to long time. Recently, we got a breakout which opened the door for a bigger correction into the 37128 level. On the 4-hour chart, the price bounced on the first support level but got rejected by the downward blue 8 breaking below the support following the CPI release. On the 1-hour chart, we can see more closely the downward trendline where we can also find the red 21 moving average and the 38.2% level. Tomorrow, we conclude the week with the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey.



https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/dow-jones-technical-analysis-20240411/ 

 S&P 500 Technical Analysis
==========

The S&P 500 fell below the 21 moving average, indicating weakening momentum and a possible reversal. The market is pricing in fewer rate cuts than the Fed's dot plot, causing Treasury yields to skyrocket. The bulls should be cautious as there are good reasons to see a bigger correction to the downside. On the 4-hour chart, the price has fallen below the 5180 zone, and sellers should step in to position for a drop into the 5100 level. On the 1-hour chart, if the price falls into the 5100 level, buyers should step in to position for a rally into new highs. The US PPI report and the latest US Jobless Claims figures are upcoming events to watch.



https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/sp-500-technical-analysis-20240411/ 

 BoC poised for June easing according to Monex
==========

The Bank of Canada (BoC) signals a dovish stance, hinting at a June rate cut. The BoC's Monetary Policy Report shows a more dovish outlook with inflation expected to decrease to 2.8% in Q1 and to 2.2% by Q4 2024. The potential output growth for 2024 suggests the economy can grow without fueling inflation. There is caution about the demand outlook and core inflation's slow pace, suggesting a quicker return to the inflation target. Market expectations have reduced anticipated BoC rate cuts from three to two and a half for the year. Expected BoC rate cuts in contrast to a more inflationary US might widen USDCAD swap rates, supporting a climb to the 1.38-1.40 range in Q2. The Fed's policy path and Canada's lower recession risk may prevent the exchange rate from exceeding 1.40. The article also mentions other news unrelated to the main topic.

#BankOfCanada #MonetaryPolicy #InterestRates #Inflation #EconomicOutlook

https://www.forexlive.com/news/boc-poised-for-june-easing-according-to-monex-20240411/ 

 Russell 2000 Technical Analysis
==========

The Russell 2000 opened lower and finished the day negative. Rate cuts expectations have been pushed further out. Treasury yields skyrocketed, putting pressure on the stock market. The daily chart shows weakening momentum and a break below the key support zone. The 4-hour chart shows a break below the trendline and Fibonacci retracement. The 1-hour chart shows a better risk to reward setup for sellers. The US PPI report and US Jobless Claims figures are upcoming. The article provides technical analysis and does not constitute investment or trading advice.



https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/russell-2000-technical-analysis-20240411/ 

 Japan data: March PPI +0.2% m/m (expected +0.3%)
==========

Japan's Producer Price Index (PPI), also known as the Corporate Goods Price Index (CGPI), increased by 0.2% month-on-month in March, lower than the expected 0.3%. The PPI reflects cost pressures faced by producers and can be used as a guide to inflationary pressures in the economy. The PPI is calculated by the Bank of Japan and measures the average change over time in the selling prices received by domestic producers for their output. It focuses on the change in the prices of goods sold by companies and does not account for quality improvements or the impact of imported goods. The yen barely moved on the data release, and traders are now awaiting the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data.

#Japan #Ppi #Inflation #Economy #BankOfJapan #CostPressures #Producers #ConsumerPriceIndex #Cpi

https://www.forexlive.com/news/japan-data-march-ppi-02-mm-expected-03-20240409/ 

 ECB's Holzmann says the European Central Bank may cut rates ahead of the US
==========

Robert Holzmann, Governor of Austria's central bank and a European Central Bank Governing Council member, stated that the European Central Bank (ECB) may cut interest rates before the US. He mentioned that interest rate cuts are likely to come depending on wage and price developments by June. Holzmann highlighted that the European economy is growing more slowly than the US and is closely monitoring wage developments in the eurozone, as lower wages would provide more room to cut rates.

#Ecb #InterestRates #RobertHolzmann #EuropeanEconomy #WageDevelopments

https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/ecbs-holzmann-says-the-european-centralbank-may-cut-rates-ahead-of-the-us-20240331/ 

 ECB's Holzmann says the European Central Bank may cut rates ahead of the US
==========

Robert Holzmann, Governor of Austria's central bank and a European Central Bank Governing Council member, stated that the European Central Bank (ECB) may cut interest rates before the US. He mentioned that interest rate cuts are likely to come depending on wage and price developments by June. Holzmann highlighted that the European economy is growing more slowly than the US and is closely monitoring wage developments in the eurozone, as lower wages would provide more room to cut rates.

#Ecb #InterestRates #RobertHolzmann #EuropeanEconomy #WageDevelopments

https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/ecbs-holzmann-says-the-european-centralbank-may-cut-rates-ahead-of-the-us-20240331/ 

 Weekly Market Recap (25-29 March)
==========

The article provides a summary of the main developments in the market during the week of 25-29 March. The key points include: 

- Fed's Bostic changed his view and now expects one rate cut this year instead of two, citing the economy's resilience and increased GDP growth estimate.
- ECB's Panetta and Lane reiterated the consensus for a rate cut in June and the focus on wage growth.
- Fed's Goolsbee expects three rate cuts this year but wants to see more progress on inflation.
- BoE's Mann moved away from rate hikes but cautioned against aggressive market pricing.
- BoJ's Tamura and Ueda discussed the current monetary policy and the need for caution.
- SNB's Jordan explained the rationale for their rate cut.
- Fed's Waller delivered a slightly more hawkish stance but kept the door open for a rate cut.
- BoJ released the Summary of Opinions of its March Monetary Policy Meeting.
- US GDP, jobless claims, and PCE data were released.
- Tokyo CPI, unemployment rate, industrial production, and retail sales data were released.
- BoE's Haskel explained his vote change and emphasized the importance of persistence in underlying inflation.
- Canadian GDP data and US jobless claims were released.
- ECB's Villeroy talked about making an insurance cut to avoid a hard landing.
- The article also provides a preview of upcoming economic data releases.

#MarketRecap #Fed #Ecb #Boe #Boj #Snb #UsGdp #JoblessClaims #PceData #TokyoCpi #UnemploymentRate #IndustrialProduction #RetailSales #Boe'sHaskel #CanadianGdp #UpcomingEconomicData

https://www.forexlive.com/news/weekly-market-recap-25-29-march-20240329/ 

 Market Outlook for the Week of 11 - 15 March
==========

This week is expected to be relatively quiet in terms of economic events, although there are some important data releases to keep an eye on. On Monday, there are no notable economic releases, but traders should note that the U.S. and Canada switched to Daylight Saving Time. Moving to Tuesday, the focus will shift to the U.K., where we'll receive data on the claimant count change, average earnings index 3m/y and the unemployment rate. Following that, attention will turn to the U.S. for inflation data, likely the most significant event of the week. Wednesday will bring the U.K.'s GDP monthly print and on Thursday, the focus returns to the U.S. with releases including core PPI m/m, retail sales m/m and the unemployment claims. Finally, on Friday, the U.S. will publish the Empire State Manufacturing Index, industrial production m/m, the preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment and the preliminary UoM Inflation Expectations. The claimant count change for the U.K. is expected to rise from 14.1K to 20.3K and the average earnings index 3m/y to drop from 5.8% to 5.7%. The unemployment rate is likely to remain unchanged at 3.8%. The U.K. GDP m/m is expected to rise from -0.1% to 0.2%. The consensus for the core CPI m/m is a 0.3% rise compared to 0.4% prior while headline CPI m/m is anticipated to rise by 0.4% from 0.3% prior. The year-over-year inflation is expected to remain unchanged at 3.1%. Industrial production m/m for the U.S. is likely to rise from -0.1% to 0.0%.



https://www.forexlive.com/news/market-outlook-for-the-week-of-11-15-march-20240311/ 

 TD bullish risk, bearish USD: global economy strong, China stabilizing, Fed to cut
==========

TD Securities expects the US dollar to weaken in Q2 and Q3 of 2024, and risk trades to strengthen. The bank's analysis cites indicators suggesting the global economy is accelerating, strong US data trends, the eventual cutting of rates by the Federal Reserve, easing global financial conditions, China's increased stability, and increased government spending in a key election year. TD Securities believes this backdrop is risk positive and dollar negative.

#TdSecurities #UsDollar #GlobalEconomy #China #FederalReserve #RiskTrades

https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/td-bullish-risk-bearish-usd-global-economy-strong-china-stabilizing-fed-to-cut-20240227/ 

 Weekly Market Outlook (26-01 March)
==========

The upcoming week will be busy on the data front with several key events and indicators to watch. These include CPI, US Durable Goods Orders, US Consumer Confidence, Australia Monthly CPI, RBNZ Policy Decision, US Q4 GDP, Industrial Production and Retail Sales, Canada GDP, US PCE, US Jobless Claims, Chinese PMIs, Eurozone CPI and Unemployment Rate, and US ISM Manufacturing PMI. The Japanese Core CPI is expected to be at 1.8%, US Consumer Confidence is expected to remain unchanged at 114.8, Australian Monthly CPI is expected to be at 3.5%, the RBNZ is expected to keep the OCR unchanged at 5.50%, US PCE is expected to be at 2.4%, US Jobless Claims are expected to be at 210K, Eurozone CPI is expected to be at 2.5%, and US ISM Manufacturing PMI is expected to be at 49.5. The market will likely react to any surprises in the data, but overall, the expectations are already priced in.

#MarketOutlook #Data #Indicators #Cpi #UsDurableGoodsOrders #UsConsumerConfidence #AustraliaMonthlyCpi #RbnzPolicyDecision #UsQ4Gdp #IndustrialProduction #RetailSales #CanadaGdp #UsPce #UsJoblessClaims #ChinesePmis #EurozoneCpi #UnemploymentRate #UsIsmManufacturingPmi

https://www.forexlive.com/news/weekly-market-outlook-26-01-march-20240225/ 

 Newsquawk week ahead: Minutes from the FOMC, ECB and RBA, flash PMIs and PBOC
==========

Highlights next week include Flash PMI data, the PBoC MLF and LPR rate decisions, alongside minutes from the FOMC, ECB and RBA. EU Foreign Ministers are poised to meet on February 19th to greenlight the EU’s mission to protect commercial vessels in the Red Sea from Iran-backed Houthi rebel attacks. The PBoC will conduct its 1-Year MLF operations and announce its Loan Prime Rates next week. The RBA will release the minutes from the February 6th meeting. The previous inflation data for December was a rise in headline CPI to 3.4% Y/Y from 3.1%. The Fed left rates unchanged at 5.25-5.5%, as expected, but made key changes to its statement. BoK is to conduct its latest policy meeting next week with the central bank likely to maintain its 7-Day Repo rate unchanged at the current level 3.50%. There are currently no analyst expectations as to what the Central Bank may opt to do under new governor Fatih Karaham. Expectations are for the services PMI to hold steady at 54.3 and for manufacturing print to rise to 47.5 from 47.0. Expectations are for the manufacturing PMI to rise to 47.1 from 46.6, services to increase to 48.7 from 48.4, leaving the composite at 48.5 from a previous 47.9. The ECB opted to stand pat on all three of its key rates.



https://www.forexlive.com/news/newsquawk-week-ahead-minutes-from-the-fomc-ecb-and-rba-flash-pmis-and-pboc-20240218/ 

 The CHF is the strongest and the JPY is the weakest as the NA session begins
==========

As the North American session begins, the CHF is the strongest and the JPY is the weakest. The USD is just behind the CHF and is up vs all the major currencies. In Japan, BOJ Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida emphasized the importance of inflation expectations and the dynamics of prices, including wages. China's Consumer Price Index (CPI) saw a slight increase of 0.3% month-on-month in January 2024. In the US, stocks are little changed and yields are higher. Some earnings releases this morning include ConocoPhillips, Philip Morris International, Under Armour, and Spirit Airlines. Chip designer Arm Holdings reported strong earnings and its shares are up 27%. Crude oil is trading up at $74.65, gold is trading down at $2026, silver is trading up at $22.29, and Bitcoin is trading at $44,704. In the premarket for US stocks, the major indices are little changed. In the European equity markets, the major indices are trading mixed. In the US debt market, yields are higher. The benchmark 10-year yields in Europe are also higher.

#Currency #Chf #Jpy #Usd #Boj #Inflation #Cpi #EarningsReleases #Stocks #Yields #CrudeOil #Gold #Silver #Bitcoin #UsStocks #EuropeanEquityMarkets #UsDebtMarket #10-yearYields

https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/the-chf-is-the-strongest-and-the-jpy-is-the-weakest-as-the-na-session-begins-20240208/ 

 The CHF is the strongest and the JPY is the weakest as the NA session begins
==========

As the North American session begins, the CHF is the strongest and the JPY is the weakest. The USD is just behind the CHF and is up vs all the major currencies. In Japan, BOJ Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida emphasized the importance of inflation expectations and the dynamics of prices, including wages. China's Consumer Price Index (CPI) saw a slight increase of 0.3% month-on-month in January 2024. In the US, stocks are little changed and yields are higher. Some earnings releases this morning include ConocoPhillips, Philip Morris International, Under Armour, and Spirit Airlines. Chip designer Arm Holdings reported strong earnings and its shares are up 27%. Crude oil is trading up at $74.65, gold is trading down at $2026, silver is trading up at $22.29, and Bitcoin is trading at $44,704. In the premarket for US stocks, the major indices are little changed. In the European equity markets, the major indices are trading mixed. In the US debt market, yields are higher. The benchmark 10-year yields in Europe are also higher.

#Currency #Chf #Jpy #Usd #Boj #Inflation #Cpi #EarningsReleases #Stocks #Yields #CrudeOil #Gold #Silver #Bitcoin #UsStocks #EuropeanEquityMarkets #UsDebtMarket #10-yearYields

https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/the-chf-is-the-strongest-and-the-jpy-is-the-weakest-as-the-na-session-begins-20240208/ 

 SocGen: Potential for further near-term USD gains amid strong economy
==========

Société Générale highlights the unexpected strength of the US labor market as indicative of a re-accelerating US economy, suggesting a "no-landing" scenario rather than a slowdown. The contrast with Europe's sluggish growth and China's recovery efforts is stark, underpinning a scenario for further near-term USD strength. However, the path forward may feature low volatility and slow, grinding gains for the dollar, particularly given its current high valuation. The strong labor data injects uncertainty into Fed policy outlook, with the possibility of rate hikes being as likely as cuts, contrasting sharply with expectations in other major economies. Despite the dollar's current high valuation, SocGen suggests there may be room for further gains. However, these are likely to materialize through a slow grind higher, given the subdued volatility in the FX market. CFTC data reveals a continued short positioning in yen despite a more hawkish Bank of Japan, and a reduction in euro longs, reflecting a cautious speculative market stance towards the dollar. Société Générale posits that the US economy's unexpected strength may fuel further near-term gains for the USD. However, given the dollar's already high valuation, any appreciation is expected to be gradual, amid a backdrop of depressed volatility. The current economic divergence between the US and its major counterparts, particularly Europe and China, underscores the complexity of the global monetary policy landscape and its implications for currency markets. Investors are advised to prepare for a scenario where the dollar incrementally strengthens, punctuated by periods of low market volatility.

#Usd #UsLaborMarket #FederalReserve #Economy

https://www.forexlive.com/news/socgen-potential-for-further-near-term-usd-gains-amid-strong-economy-20240207/