Market Outlook for the Week of 11 - 15 March
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This week is expected to be relatively quiet in terms of economic events, although there are some important data releases to keep an eye on. On Monday, there are no notable economic releases, but traders should note that the U.S. and Canada switched to Daylight Saving Time. Moving to Tuesday, the focus will shift to the U.K., where we'll receive data on the claimant count change, average earnings index 3m/y and the unemployment rate. Following that, attention will turn to the U.S. for inflation data, likely the most significant event of the week. Wednesday will bring the U.K.'s GDP monthly print and on Thursday, the focus returns to the U.S. with releases including core PPI m/m, retail sales m/m and the unemployment claims. Finally, on Friday, the U.S. will publish the Empire State Manufacturing Index, industrial production m/m, the preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment and the preliminary UoM Inflation Expectations. The claimant count change for the U.K. is expected to rise from 14.1K to 20.3K and the average earnings index 3m/y to drop from 5.8% to 5.7%. The unemployment rate is likely to remain unchanged at 3.8%. The U.K. GDP m/m is expected to rise from -0.1% to 0.2%. The consensus for the core CPI m/m is a 0.3% rise compared to 0.4% prior while headline CPI m/m is anticipated to rise by 0.4% from 0.3% prior. The year-over-year inflation is expected to remain unchanged at 3.1%. Industrial production m/m for the U.S. is likely to rise from -0.1% to 0.0%.



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