@LynAlden's latest newsletter made note on the ongoing carnage in sovereign bonds. I won't summarize the analysis or position, given it is a subscriber newsletter. But it is an interesting and meaningful debate as to the direction of interest rates. Related, there was a Barrons story this week about the labor market, noting its resilience as evidence to a likely soft landing (typical MSM garbage).
My contrarian view to that the labor market remains weak because excess liquidity still defines the economy. In other words, if central banks and government really want to bring price inflation under control, they need to destroy more demand and create more unemployment, such that monetary units come more in line with the scarcity of people's time and energy.
Applying this thought to the future of interest rates, they need to go up more. And sovereign debt needs to go down more. The question is "when" and "how violently." I think central banks will pause and expand their balance sheets sooner than people think, likely in response to crisis. But I also don't think they can go on doing this too much longer, before trust is completely lost and collapse occurs.
So, is sovereign debt a good buy? I suspect it is a matter of timing, but "no" longer term.
According to Powell's testimony, the reason we have a given level of price inflation is because (drum roll) it is the level of inflation people expect. It has nothing to do with monetary policy.
The Fed, with the projected power of its hundreds and hundreds of PhDs, is nothing more the a psychological operation on the people. It is just selling expectation. If we can just convince people inflation won't be, it won't be. Hmm.
In other words none of it is real, which makes sense given the same is true about our money.
#Bitcoin (ie proof of work, scarcity) fixes this.
Elon is bought and paid for...follow the incentives, and run the other way.
Bloomberg: Elon Musk’s SpaceX has received its first contract from the US Space Force to provide customized satellite communications for the military
Never underestimate people's acceptance betrayal and manipulation in the name of convenience.
But you can't unsee the truth, or avoid its gravitational pull. #Nostr and #bitcoin are inevitable.
Never underestimate people's acceptance of betrayal and manipulation in the name of convenience.
But you can't unsee the truth, or avoid its gravitational pull. Nostr and bitcoin are inevitable.
100%. This misunderstanding also leads to a mind-numbing misallocation of people's time. The irony is Keynsian economics relies on the concept of efficiency. But when you think about all the time spent learning this flawed theory by professors and students, and then all the wasted time spent by economists and central bankers trying to study and apply it, followed by the time individuals and corporations spend trying to do the same, and all the journalistic time and energy spent reporting on it daily, globally, it is a true shame that our lives on this planet are so distorted, with time spent chasing false dreams. And when you see the light, and know others in power must know it too, you realized the theory has become a system of control. The ruling class benefits from this societal inefficiency and wants you to waste your time.
This sad reality is the hope of technology like #Bitcoin and #Nostr -- they are platforms of truth, allowing people the opportunity to release the shackles and enjoy the real world. Pura Vida describes it well. Very grateful. 🙏
It is a sign of personal growth and mastery when you can discern the faults in your teachers, and move beyond them, with a mixture of gratitude and sadness for their unfilled potential.
Some Stanford economics professor may have given Nick Maggiulli about 20 years ago. The sad part is that he has learned nothing about reality since. Keep it real, Marty. PV.
Phenomenally well written excerpt from "It is Time to Wake Up." The search for truth is why many of us fell down the Bitcoin rabbit hole, probably not understanding even the fundamental reasons for the fascination and gravitational pull at the beginning.
So here's a crazy idea for the day ... Mandibles would be a phenomenal movie.
Let's get some bitcoiners buy the movie rights, maybe leverage AI, and independently distribute it. Grass roots getting stronger.
Everyone thinks Bitcoin is just a liquidity sponge, and waiting for central bankers to pivot. While I can see this base case, the market also seems to be seriously discounting higher demand from network effect and increased adoption, irrespective of liquidity or inflation.
When we think about global liquidity, am I right in saying China's M2 is greater than the US? And, isn't China encouraging loans and growth in money supply at present?
The world is so fucked, and has no one to blame but itself.
nostr:nevent1qqs2l98sy7xys3vzrdeg0dt4xhkwxrryp54yqqjnj3ctlg04t3sr8vgpzpmhxue69uhkummnw3ezuamfdejsygqcx0hqg3vlavk2ftnfp40nzf566jyvd8jlayp6g26n93nhcj5pwqpsgqqqqqqsc5s32w
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