US CPI, Retail Sales Data to Test Fed Rate Cut Bets
==========

Investors panicked after NFP report; ISM non-manufacturing PMI returned to expansionary territory; Atlanta Fed GDPNow model predicts 2.8% q/q SAAR growth rate in Q3; Initial jobless claims saw largest drop in nearly a year; Market participants scaled back rate-cut expectations to around 100bps worth of cuts; US CPI data for July and retail sales numbers for the same month to be released; Expectations for headline CPI rate to hold steady at 3.0% y/y; Risks surrounding inflation may be tilted to the upside; Potential improvement in retail sales could ease recession fears and convince market participants that aggressive rate cuts are not necessary; Strong dollar could push euro/dollar back below 1.0900; Bears may drive action towards 1.0780 or 1.0745; Upside move may be a strong break above 1.1000.

#UsCpi #RetailSales #FedRateCut #Investors #RecessionFears #IsmNonmanufacturingPmi #AtlantaFedGdpnow #JoblessClaims #Inflation #TreasuryYields #UsDollar #Euro/dollar

https://www.investing.com/analysis/us-cpi-retail-sales-data-to-test-fed-rate-cut-bets-200650883 

 Confidence Is the Underappreciated Economic Engine
==========

Confidence is an underappreciated factor in economic forecasting; Economic confidence can change quickly and have significant impacts; The difference in economic activity caused by a small decline in confidence can be substantial; Confidence is influenced by political views, stock market performance, and real estate valuations; Common knowledge plays a role in shaping economic confidence; Recent events like stock market volatility and an increase in the unemployment rate may impact confidence and consumption patterns.



https://www.investing.com/analysis/confidence-is-the-underappreciated-economic-engine-200650735 

 Week Ahead – BoJ, Fed and BoE Meetings: A Hike, a Hold and a Cut?
==========

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is expected to reduce bond purchases at its upcoming meeting, but the likelihood of a rate hike is unclear. The Federal Reserve (Fed) is unlikely to announce any policy change, while the Bank of England (BoE) may cut rates due to falling inflation. The Eurozone's economic recovery has hit a roadblock, and the European Central Bank (ECB) may consider another rate cut. Australian inflation is edging higher, which may lead to a rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). The week will also see the release of important economic data and the US jobs report.

#CentralBanks #BankOfJapan #FederalReserve #BankOfEngland #EuropeanCentralBank #Inflation #EconomicData #InterestRates

https://www.investing.com/analysis/week-ahead--boj-fed-and-boe-meetings-a-hike-a-hold-and-a-cut-200650380 

 US bank regulator warns against 'worrisome' state laws targeting banks
==========

Michael Hsu, head of the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC), warned that the agency may push back against state laws targeting national bank activities on political grounds. Hsu stated that these laws are causing greater fragmentation of the financial system and the OCC may challenge them. Several states, including Texas, Florida, and Tennessee, have passed or considered legislation aimed at policing bank policies deemed discriminatory on political grounds. Hsu emphasized the importance of federal preemption of state laws that interfere with national bank operations and regulation, stating that it is central to the nation's banking system.

#UsBankRegulator #StateLaws #NationalBankActivities #PoliticalGrounds #FinancialSystem #Occ #FederalPreemption

https://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/us-bank-regulator-warns-against-worrisome-state-laws-targeting-banks-3523438 

 Morning Bid: Gold glitters, inflation jitters
==========

Markets' main focus will be on whether Britain's inflation sticks to the global script. U.S. consumer prices fell for the first time in four years in June. New Zealand inflation slowed more than expected. Britain's sticky services inflation was running at 5.7% year-on-year in May and is tipped at an uncomfortable 5.6% for June. Sterling was steady at $1.2978. Gold scaled record highs in Asia on firmer expectations of interest rate cuts. Taiwan stocks were wobbled by Donald Trump equivocating on the United States' commitment to the island. Shares in Taiwanese chipmaker TSMC were down 1.4%. Earnings due later on Wednesday at Dutch semiconductor equipment supplier ASML are expected to show new orders booming.

#Gold #Inflation #Britain #UnitedStates #NewZealand #Taiwan #InterestRates #Sterling #Chipmaker #Asml

https://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/morning-bid-gold-glitters-inflation-jitters-3522052 

 Canada's economy appears to have achieved soft landing, says IMF
==========

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has stated that Canada's economy has achieved a soft landing, with positive growth and inflation within the central bank's target range. The IMF's Article IV report revised Canada's GDP growth up by 0.1% in 2024 and 2025 to 1.3% and 2.4% respectively. The report also estimated that inflation would settle around 2.5% this year and ease down to 2% next year. The IMF emphasized the need for further rate cuts to be carefully calibrated and data dependent. Financial markets are predicting a rate cut at the Bank of Canada's July 24 monetary policy announcement.

#Imf #Canada #Economy #Inflation #InterestRates

https://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/canadas-economy-appears-to-have-achieved-soft-landing-says-imf-3521471 

 With buyers wary, Argentina's zombie mortgage market has a long road to revival
==========

Argentina's mortgage market is tiny, less than 1% of the country's GDP. Buyers and real estate agents say that won't be easy to revive. Inflation and economic uncertainty make borrowers and lenders fear the risk of long-term credit. Limited access to credit has forced people to get creative. Argentina has registered nine sovereign debt defaults, the most recent in 2020. In May, only 141 houses were sold with mortgages in capital Buenos Aires. The return of mortgage products is seen as a signal of support for President Javier Milei's pro-market reforms.

#Argentina #MortgageMarket #Inflation #EconomicUncertainty #Credit

https://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/with-buyers-wary-argentinas-zombie-mortgage-market-has-a-long-road-to-revival-3520447 

 Dollar steadies ahead of Powell's speech; euro edges higher
==========

The U.S. dollar stabilizes ahead of comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell. The Dollar Index trades largely unchanged at 103.785. The dollar initially gained after former U.S. President Donald Trump was shot at a campaign rally. Trump is set to appear at the 2024 Republican convention and is likely to be nominated as the party's frontrunner for the presidential race. The shooting increased his chances of victory over Joe Biden, which could favor the dollar. However, gains have dissipated ahead of Powell's speech. The euro gains ahead of the European Central Bank meeting. The ECB is expected to maintain its current rates. The euro is trading at its highest level since March. The yen slips slightly against the dollar. The Chinese yuan weakens after weak GDP data. Chinese economy grew less than expected at 4.7% in Q2. 



https://www.investing.com/news/forex-news/dollar-steadies-ahead-of-powells-speech-euro-edges-higher-3518615 

 Burberry axes CEO and dividend, warns on profit
==========

British luxury group Burberry has named Joshua Schulman as its new CEO and warned on profit, leading to the departure of current CEO Jonathan Akeroyd. Burberry's underlying sales declined 21% in the 13 weeks to June 29, prompting the company to refocus on its classic check print. If current trends continue, Burberry's full-year operating profit will be below consensus.

#Burberry #Ceo #Dividend #ProfitWarning #LuxurySector

https://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/burberry-axes-ceo-and-dividend-warns-on-profit-3518420 

 China's economy seen slowing in Q2 as stimulus calls grow
==========

China's economy likely slowed in the second quarter as a protracted property downturn and job insecurity weighed on domestic demand. Data is expected to show the world's second-largest economy grew 5.1% year-on-year in April-June, slowing from 5.3% in the previous three months. The government is aiming for economic growth of around 5.0% for 2024, a target that may require more stimulus. China has boosted infrastructure investment and ploughed funds into high-tech manufacturing to counter soft domestic demand and a property crisis. Rising trade tensions pose a threat to the economy.

#China #Economy #Stimulus #Q2 #PropertyDownturn #DomesticDemand

https://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/chinas-economy-seen-slowing-in-q2-as-stimulus-calls-grow-3518280 

 Analysis-Thai economy faces upheaval due to factory closures and cheap Chinese imports
==========

Thailand has witnessed nearly 2,000 factory closures in the last year, impacting its manufacturing sector that contributes nearly a quarter of its GDP. The closures are a result of cheap imports from China and a decline in industrial competitiveness due to factors such as rising energy prices and an aging workforce. The Japanese automaker Suzuki Motor recently announced the closure of a Thai factory that produced up to 60,000 cars a year. The manufacturing sector's struggles have left Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin struggling to fulfill his promise of bringing average annual GDP growth to 5%. Thailand is collecting a 7% value-added tax on cheap imported goods priced less than 1,500 Thai baht ($41) to address the issue. However, the economy is projected to grow only about 2.5% this year.

#ThaiEconomy #FactoryClosures #CheapChineseImports

https://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/analysisthai-economy-faces-upheaval-due-to-factory-closures-and-cheap-chinese-imports-3518279 

 Earnings call: Wells Fargo reports mixed Q2 results, plans dividend hike
==========

Wells Fargo reported mixed Q2 results, with strengths in fee-based revenue and challenges in net interest income and loan growth. The company plans to increase its common stock dividend by 14% in Q3. CEO Charlie Scharf highlighted the growth in fee-based revenue and strategic improvements in the credit card and corporate investment bank sectors. CFO Mike Santomassimo highlighted the financials, including a 19% increase in non-interest income and a slight decline in the allowance for credit losses. The bank faced increases in non-interest expenses and net loan charge-offs, particularly in the commercial real estate office portfolio. Wells Fargo's full-year 2024 net interest income is expected to be 8-9% lower than 2023, and full-year non-interest expenses are projected at approximately $54 billion.



https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/earnings-call-wells-fargo-reports-mixed-q2-results-plans-dividend-hike-93CH-3518254 

 Goldman Sachs says this is 'a key indicator for the durability of the AI trade'
==========

Goldman Sachs analysts have identified sales revisions as a key measure for assessing the longevity of the AI trade. The AI sector has experienced significant growth, particularly in the infrastructure phase, but skepticism remains about its long-term profitability. Phase 2 companies involved in AI infrastructure have shown robust performance, with an average return of 26% YTD. However, there is growing scrutiny on the potential returns from AI investment spending. Phase 3 companies, expected to monetize AI through software and IT services, have seen volatile performance, with a 19% decline in stock prices between February and May. Sales revisions will be a key indicator for investors to assess the durability of the AI trade. The upcoming earnings season will be a critical test for investor optimism, and companies involved in AI must demonstrate tangible sales and earnings growth to sustain their valuations. The AI capex cycle is still smaller than the Tech Bubble era. Investors are advised to closely monitor earnings reports and sales projections to gauge the long-term viability of AI-driven growth.



https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/goldman-sachs-says-this-is-a-key-indicator-for-the-durability-of-the-ai-trade-432SI-3518210 

 OpenAI whistleblowers ask SEC to investigate restrictive non-disclosure agreements, Washington Post reports
==========

OpenAI whistleblowers have filed a complaint with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) over the company's allegedly restrictive non-disclosure agreements. The whistleblowers claim that OpenAI issued overly restrictive employment, severance, and non-disclosure agreements that could penalize workers who raised concerns about OpenAI to federal authorities. The agreements required employees to waive their federal rights to whistleblower compensation and obtain prior consent from the company to disclose information to federal regulators. OpenAI did not create exemptions in the employee nondisparagement clauses for disclosing securities violations to the SEC. The SEC has not commented on the existence of the whistleblower submission. OpenAI has not responded to requests for comment.

#Openai #Sec #Whistleblowers #NondisclosureAgreements

https://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/openai-whistleblowers-ask-sec-to-investigate-restrictive-nondisclosure-agreements-washington-post-reports-3518164 

 US office delinquencies ticked higher in June, ratings agencies say
==========

The delinquency rate among U.S. office loans rose in June, driven by increasing vacancies and elevated interest rates. The overall rate of delinquencies on loans behind commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) rose to 2.45% in June from 2.42% in May. Office loans made up 55% of 30-day delinquent loans last month. Three of the largest newly late loans last month were backed by offices, including a $244 million loan behind the Illinois Center and a $120 million loan behind 10 office buildings in Mountain View, California. Office vacancies hit a record 20.1% in the second quarter.

#UsOfficeLoans #DelinquencyRate #Vacancies #InterestRates #CommercialRealEstate #Cmbs

https://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/us-office-delinquencies-ticked-higher-in-june-ratings-agencies-say-3517789 

 Firms launch options on swap-based Bitcoin ETF
==========

Options on leveraged products that track the spot price of bitcoin via derivative swaps began trading on Thursday. Investors can now buy options on the T-Rex 2x Long Daily Target ETF and the T-Rex 2x Inverse Bitcoin Daily Target ETF, which were launched on Wednesday by Rex Shares and Tuttle. The SEC has yet to approve options on the nine new ETFs launched in January that track the spot price of bitcoin directly. The underlying leveraged ETFs are designed for daily traders interested in getting twice the return or betting on a decline in the underlying asset, which in this case is BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust. Rex Shares and Tuttle encourage traders to approach this offering with diligence and be well-informed about the unique characteristics and risks associated with trading options for these specialized ETFs.



https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/firms-launch-options-on-swapbased-bitcoin-etf-3516306 

 U.S. June budget deficit shrinks to $66 billion after calendar shifts
==========

The U.S. government recorded a $66 billion budget deficit for June that was reduced sharply by a shift of benefit payments into May that ballooned that month's deficit to $347 billion. Without the June calendar adjustments in both years, the June 2024 deficit would have been $159 billion, up 3% or $5 billion from the year-ago gap. June receipts were $466 billion, up 11% from June 2023. June outlays fell 18% to $532 billion, but without the calendar adjustments, the outlays would have been up 11% to $625 billion. For the first nine months of the 2024 fiscal year, the U.S. deficit fell 9% to $1.268 trillion from $1.393 trillion in the same period of fiscal 2023. Year-to-date receipts were up 10% to $3.754 trillion, while outlays for the period were up 5% to $5.022 trillion.



https://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/us-june-budget-deficit-shrinks-to-66-billion-after-calendar-shifts-3516185 

 Japanese Yen Faces Continued Decline Amid Interest Rate Differentials
==========

The Japanese Yen (JPY) is facing a continued decline against the US Dollar (USD) due to the significant interest rate differential between the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the Federal Reserve. The BoJ recently adjusted its interest rate to zero, but this has not stopped the yen's depreciation. Investors are awaiting the BoJ's meeting in July, where decisions on bond purchases will be made, potentially signaling a shift in Japan's monetary policy. Mixed economic signals from Japan show a decline in orders but an increase in industrial sector strength. Technical analysis suggests that the USD/JPY pair could reach 162.00 before a correction to 158.80 and another growth phase targeting 163.30. Traders will closely monitor upcoming data releases and central bank communications for insights into the yen's future direction.

#JapaneseYen #InterestRates #BankOfJapan #FederalReserve #Usd/jpy

https://www.investing.com/analysis/japanese-yen-faces-continued-decline-amid-interest-rate-differentials-200649902 

 Elon Musk beats $500 million severance lawsuit by fired Twitter workers
==========

Elon Musk has won the dismissal of a lawsuit claiming he refused to pay at least $500 million of severance to thousands of Twitter employees he fired in mass layoffs after buying the social media company now known as X. The federal Employee Retirement Income Security Act did not cover the former employees' claims, according to U.S. District Judge Trina Thompson in San Francisco. Musk has faced multiple lawsuits accusing him of reneging on promises to former Twitter employees and vendors after acquiring the company for $44 billion in October 2022.

#ElonMusk #Twitter #Lawsuit #Severance #MassLayoffs

https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/elon-musk-beats-500-million-severance-lawsuit-by-fired-twitter-workers-3514167 

 US regional banks to face increased scrutiny as CRE exposure stifles buybacks
==========

U.S. regional banks are expected to stockpile more funds and be conservative on stock buybacks due to losses from commercial real estate (CRE) loans. The banks face scrutiny from investors over potential weakness from CRE and commercial borrowers. Problems related to CRE loans at New York Community Bancorp and First Foundation have highlighted default risks. Analysts expect profits to decline as banks set aside more money to cover deteriorating loans and earn less from interest payments due to weak loan demand. The Federal Reserve Chair, Jerome Powell, stated that CRE risks will be with banks for years. Regional banks have also shifted toward making riskier loans, holding a larger share of non-investment grade corporate loans. The Fed projected total loan losses for banks to reach up to $571 billion under a severe scenario in its annual stress tests. The future path of U.S. interest rates has heightened uncertainty for lenders pursuing distressed sales of CRE assets. CRE property prices continued to decline at the end of the first quarter, and distressed CRE sales increased to 3.9% of total CRE sales. Shares of banks with big exposures to CRE and multi-family properties, particularly in New York and other major metropolitan areas, have been targeted by short sellers. The KBW Regional Banking Index has shed about 11% so far this year, while an index tracking larger lenders is up about 18%.

#UsRegionalBanks #CommercialRealEstate #CreExposure #StockBuybacks #LoanLosses #InterestRates #DistressedSales #ShortSellers

https://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/us-regional-banks-to-face-increased-scrutiny-as-cre-exposure-stifles-buybacks-3513649 

 Morning Bid: Turning the corner in the inflation fight
==========

Central bankers across the globe are showing increasing confidence in lower rates. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) expects headline inflation to return to the 1% to 3% target range in the second half of this year. Traders are betting on rate cuts in New Zealand later this year. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stated that the US is no longer an overheated economy and hinted at a possible easing cycle. The market is pricing in a 70% chance of a Fed rate cut in September. The Bank of Japan is expected to trim its economic growth forecast but maintain its 2% inflation target. China's consumer prices grew for a fifth month in June, but missed expectations. The yuan fell to its weakest level since November. Key events for Wednesday include the UK RICS Housing Survey, the reopening of a 14-year German government debt auction, and Powell's testimony before the House Financial Services Committee.

#Inflation #CentralBanks #InterestRates #ReserveBankOfNewZealand #FederalReserve #BankOfJapan #China #Yuan #EconomicGrowth #RateCuts

https://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/morning-bid-turning-the-corner-in-the-inflation-fight-3512891 

 US Treasury's Yellen: inflation will continue to ease over time
==========

US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen stated that inflation will continue to come down over time, although rent and housing costs are keeping it higher than preferred. Yellen mentioned that factors such as supply issues and labor market tightness have eased, which will help drive down consumer price pressures. Lael Brainard, chair of the White House National Economic Council, noted that several months of data have confirmed that inflation is returning to the Federal Reserve's 2% target. Brainard also highlighted the need for more affordable housing, slower rent increases, and tax credits for first-time homeowners to address the cost of living for Americans.

#UsTreasury #Inflation #JanetYellen #Rent #HousingCosts #ConsumerPricePressures #LaborMarket #FederalReserve #AffordableHousing #TaxCredits

https://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/us-treasurys-yellen-inflation-will-continue-to-ease-over-time-3512607 

 Bank of Korea to keep rates unchanged in July, cut 25 bps in Q4: Reuters Poll
==========

The Bank of Korea (BOK) will keep its policy rate on hold at a 15-year high of 3.50% on Thursday, but was expected to cut the rate next quarter - around the same time as a likely start of policy easing by the U.S. Federal Reserve, a Reuters poll found. All 40 economists in the July 3-8 Reuters poll expected the BOK to leave the base rate unchanged at 3.50% on July 11. Median forecasts showed interest rates will remain unchanged through next quarter before a 25 basis-point cut to 3.25% in the final three months of the year. In a May survey, the consensus view predicted a 50 basis-point cut.

#BankOfKorea #InterestRates #ReutersPoll

https://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/bank-of-korea-to-keep-rates-unchanged-in-july-cut-25-bps-in-q4-reuters-poll-3510968 

 Bank of Korea to keep rates unchanged in July, cut 25 bps in Q4: Reuters Poll
==========

The Bank of Korea (BOK) will keep its policy rate on hold at a 15-year high of 3.50% on Thursday, but was expected to cut the rate next quarter - around the same time as a likely start of policy easing by the U.S. Federal Reserve, a Reuters poll found. All 40 economists in the July 3-8 Reuters poll expected the BOK to leave the base rate unchanged at 3.50% on July 11. Median forecasts showed interest rates will remain unchanged through next quarter before a 25 basis-point cut to 3.25% in the final three months of the year. In a May survey, the consensus view predicted a 50 basis-point cut.

#BankOfKorea #InterestRates #ReutersPoll

https://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/bank-of-korea-to-keep-rates-unchanged-in-july-cut-25-bps-in-q4-reuters-poll-3510968 

 Zeta Global shares target raised, reiterates Outperform on growth outlook
==========

Oppenheimer has increased its stock price target for Zeta Global Holdings Corp from $18.00 to $20.00, while reiterating an Outperform rating on the stock. The firm anticipates the company to continue its robust performance into the second half of 2024, propelled by a combination of cyclical tailwinds and improving market conditions. Zeta Global is expected to report favorable results for the upcoming second-quarter earnings, driven by strong demand for marketing orchestration and automation technologies. Zeta Global has also announced a partnership with RallyPoint and launched the Zeta Economic Index (ZEI). RBC Capital, BofA Securities, and Needham have also expressed positive views on Zeta Global. Imran Khan has joined Zeta Global's Board of Directors. Analysts project strong financial health for Zeta Global in 2024, with estimated revenue at $897.1 million and an EBITDA estimate of $170.2 million.



https://www.investing.com/news/company-news/zeta-global-shares-target-raised-reiterates-outperform-on-growth-outlook-93CH-3510831 

 Natural Gas: Dog Days Offering Momentum
==========

Natural Gas on the Nymex closed 11% lower at $2.33. EIA reported a bullish build of 32 Bcf in working underground stocks. Total inventory is currently at 3,134 Bcf, 9.6% higher y/y, 18.8% above the 5-year average. Stocks will soon be below the 5-year maximum for the first time in 8 months. The author believes that another $3.50 level is attainable before winter. The LNG market has faced pressure due to bad publicity from Putin's war. U.S. contracts above $4.00 will meet resistance as LNG exports will not easily exceed 15% of total U.S. demand. The author recommends monitoring U.S. macro data and the Dollar Index. Daily, 4-hour, and 15-minute MACD and RSI are pointing to entry areas.



https://www.investing.com/analysis/natural-gas-dog-days-offering-momentum-200649786 

 Exclusive-Turkish central bank chief 'extremely determined' to curb inflation
==========

Turkey's central bank governor, Fatih Karahan, is determined to combat soaring prices and will maintain a tight policy stance to bring down inflation. Karahan stated that the central bank wants to see a significant and sustained fall in the underlying trend of monthly inflation and is extremely determined to bring down inflation. The central bank has raised rates by 500 basis points since March and has tightened by 4,150 basis points since June 2023. The annual inflation rate in Turkey fell to 71.6% in June, down from 75.45% in May. Karahan emphasized that it is too early to perceive the June inflation dip as a trend change and that the central bank will act with determination and caution. The central bank expects disinflation to take hold in the second half of the year and forecasts an end-year rate of 38%. Economists polled by Reuters expect the inflation rate to fall to around 42% by year-end.

#Turkey #CentralBank #Inflation #InterestRates

https://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/exclusiveturkish-central-bank-chief-extremely-determined-to-curb-inflation-3508252 

 Asian stocks draw robust foreign inflows on US rate outlook, tech rally
==========

Foreign investors bought a net $7.16 billion worth of Asian equities in June, following two months of selling. The influx of foreign funds was driven by easing U.S. price pressures, which raised hopes of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. The surge in global AI-linked firms also enhanced demand for tech and semiconductor exports from Asia. South Korea and Taiwan, major beneficiaries of AI investments, saw foreign purchases in equity markets worth $3.83 billion and $1.94 billion, respectively. Indian markets attracted $3.19 billion in foreign funds, while stock markets in Thailand, Vietnam, the Philippines, and Indonesia faced net outflows.

#AsianStocks #ForeignInflows #UsRateOutlook #TechRally

https://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/asian-stocks-draw-robust-foreign-inflows-on-us-rate-outlook-tech-rally-3508247 

 US overnight funding rate hits highest since January
==========

The US overnight funding rate, known as the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR), reached its highest level since January, hitting 5.4%. This indicates dwindling liquidity in the US repurchase agreement (repo) market. The increase in borrowing costs follows heavy Treasury coupon debt supply and the settlement of Treasury auctions, which strained banks' balance sheets. Analysts expect the rate to normalize in the coming days as the supply is digested, but caution that it may take longer due to the holiday-shortened week and reduced market liquidity. The spike in funding rates is reminiscent of the liquidity shortage in September 2019, which prompted the Federal Reserve to intervene by injecting liquidity into repo markets. The increase in the usage of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's reverse repo facility, where money market funds lend to the Fed, also coincided with the jump in funding rates. This facility saw $664.6 billion in inflows, the highest level since January. The quarter-end pullback in balance sheet availability by banks looking to de-risk is contributing to the impact on liquidity. The situation highlights the reduced liquidity in the market compared to previous periods.

#UsOvernightFundingRate #SecuredOvernightFinancingRate #Sofr #UsRepurchaseAgreementMarket #LiquidityShortage #TreasuryAuctions #FederalReserve #ReverseRepoFacility

https://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/us-overnight-funding-rate-hits-highest-since-january-3505929 

 Dollar soars near 38-year yen peak as Trump risk lifts US yields
==========

The U.S. dollar is hovering near a 38-year high against the yen as Treasury yields surge due to expectations of a second Donald Trump presidency. The dollar is currently at 161.56 yen, close to the overnight high of 161.72 yen, a level not seen since December 1986. The currency pair is highly sensitive to U.S. yields, and the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield climbed nearly 14 basis points to 4.479%. Analysts attribute the yield increase to expectations of Trump winning the presidency, resulting in higher tariffs and government borrowing. The euro remained firm against the dollar, easing 0.07% to $1.0733. Asian stocks had a mixed performance, with Japan's Nikkei rising 0.6% and Hong Kong's Hang Seng rising 0.3%, while mainland blue chips were flat and Taiwan's benchmark declined 0.8% and South Korea's Kospi sagged 0.6%. Crude oil prices ticked higher as the northern hemisphere summer driving season begins.

#Usd/jpy #DonaldTrump #TreasuryYields #Euro #AsianStocks #CrudeOil

https://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/dollar-soars-near-38year-yen-peak-as-trump-risk-lifts-us-yields-3504723 

 Australia central bank saw downside risks to employment when holding rates
==========

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) considered raising its 4.35% cash rate at its June policy meeting but decided to stand pat due to the risk of a sharp slowdown in the labor market. The RBA did not rule out or in any future changes to policy. The board judged the case for holding steady was stronger given the economy was still tracking broadly as expected, with inflation seen returning to target in 2026, output growth staying weak, and risks to the labor market on the downside. The RBA has held interest rates steady for five straight meetings now. Markets are wagering there is a 36% probability that the RBA could hike in August depending on the outcome of the second-quarter consumer price inflation report due at the end of July. The board in the minutes affirmed their assessment that it was still possible to bring inflation to target while preserving job gains, though they did acknowledge that the 'narrow path' was becoming narrower. Members noted that household consumption had been revised higher in the first quarter, while there were signs that inflation was taking longer to abate than previously assumed. If inflation expectations were to rise materially from current levels, it could require significantly higher interest rates to bring inflation back to target.

#ReserveBankOfAustralia #InterestRates #Inflation #LaborMarket

https://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/australia-central-bank-saw-downside-risks-to-employment-when-holding-rates-3504717 

 No soft landing, the US will fall into a recession in late 2024 or early 2025
==========

The US economy is predicted to fall into a recession in late 2024 or early 2025, according to strategists at BCA Research. They cite data from their kinked Phillips curve framework, which suggests a nonlinear relationship between inflation and unemployment. BCA believes that once full employment is reached, companies can only grow their workforce by attracting employees from other firms, leading to rising wages and prices. They expect the S&P 500 stock market index to drop to 3,750 during the next recession. BCA is now tactically underweight on equities.

#UsEconomy #Recession #BcaResearch #PhillipsCurve #S&p500

https://www.investing.com/news/economy/no-soft-landing-the-us-will-fall-into-a-recession-in-late-2024-or-early-2025-3499200 

 Goldman Sachs: Brent oil prices "at our summer peak"
==========

According to analysts at Goldman Sachs, Brent oil prices have reached their "summer peak" of $86 per barrel. The analysts attribute this to strong summer traveling activity in the U.S. and strong global jet demand. Despite a surprise increase in U.S. oil inventories, crude prices rose as traders considered geopolitical risks and confidence in the summer driving season. The Brent contract climbed 0.8% to $84.91 a barrel, while U.S. crude futures (WTI) traded 0.9% higher at $81.56 per barrel. The Goldman Sachs analysts also mentioned that geopolitical tensions, such as Israeli strikes on Gaza and Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries, are still being monitored by the market.



https://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/goldman-sachs-brent-oil-prices-at-our-summer-peak-3497008 

 WikiLeaks' Assange arrives in Mariana Islands for US plea deal
==========

Julian Assange, the founder of WikiLeaks, has arrived in the Northern Mariana Islands to plead guilty to violating U.S. espionage law. He is expected to plead guilty to a single criminal count of conspiring to obtain and disclose classified U.S. national defense documents. If the judge approves his plea, Assange will be sentenced to 62 months of time already served and is expected to return to Australia. Assange's supporters view him as a victim who exposed U.S. wrongdoing, while the U.S. government has accused him of putting lives in danger. Australian governments have been advocating for his release.

#JulianAssange #Wikileaks #UsPleaDeal #EspionageLaw #ClassifiedDocuments #Australia

https://www.investing.com/news/world-news/wikileaks-assange-arrives-in-mariana-islands-for-us-plea-deal-3496673 

 Sri Lanka to re-engage with private creditors imminently, sources say
==========

Formal negotiations between Sri Lankan authorities and international private creditors on over $12 billion in bonds are set to resume imminently after a group of bondholders signed non-disclosure agreements late last week. The talks come after the International Monetary Fund board approved a $336 million installment of the IMF's $2.9 billion program. Sri Lanka plunged into its worst financial crisis in more than seven decades in 2022, with a severe dollar shortage, high inflation, record lows for its currency, and a contracting economy. The IMF bailout secured in March last year helped stabilize economic conditions. The island nation will hold presidential elections by mid-October.

#SriLanka #PrivateCreditors #Negotiations #Bonds #InternationalMonetaryFund #FinancialCrisis

https://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/sri-lanka-to-reengage-with-private-creditors-imminently-sources-say-3494317 

 Kremlin blames US for 'barbaric' ATACMS missile attack on Crimea
==========

The Kremlin directly blamed the United States for a Ukrainian attack on Crimea with U.S.-supplied ATACMS missiles that killed at least four people, including two children, and injured 151 more. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated that it was clear who supplied the weapons, aimed them, and provided data for them. The Russian Defence Ministry also accused the United States of responsibility for the attack. President Vladimir Putin has warned of the risk of a broader war involving nuclear powers. The Russian response to the attack is yet to be determined.

#Kremlin #UnitedStates #AtacmsMissile #Crimea #Ukraine #VladimirPutin

https://www.investing.com/news/world-news/kremlin-blames-us-for-barbaric-atacms-missile-attack-on-crimea-3493163 

 China says it reserves right to take measures against US planned investment curbs
==========

China's commerce ministry expresses grave concern and firm opposition to US proposed rules for curbing certain investments in China. China reserves the right to take corresponding measures and urges the US to stop politicizing and weaponizing economic and trade issues. The US issued draft rules on Friday for banning or requiring notification of certain investments in AI and other technology sectors in China that could threaten US national security.

#China #Us #InvestmentCurbs #CommerceMinistry #TradeIssues #NationalSecurity

https://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/china-says-it-reserves-right-to-take-measures-against-us-planned-investment-curbs-3492968