Upon finishing “The Changing World Order” by Ray Dalio, I was left with a question: how will American society decay? How does this decadence manifest itself? 
I recently skimmed through Jason Lowry’s thesis and read “The Fourth Turning is Here” by Neil Howe. 
Major Jason Lowry theorizes that the next war could be fought through cyberspace. As humans reach maximal kinetic power projection, we’ve created a paradox. Whereby we have created inefficient kinetic weapons by making them too powerful (nuclear bombs). Therefore, the next conflict could use proof-of-work, as a non-kinetic form of power projection. Allowing us to fight digitally.
Neil Howe theorizes history to be cyclical, rather than linear. We do not merely progress into infinity. He lays out “seasons” within history; all four seasons make up a saeculum. A saeculum comprises “a long human life” or roughly 80-105 years or so. As generations deal with crises, they develop different moods and perspectives. Similar to the old adage, “Hard times make strong men. Strong men make good times. Good times make weak men. Weak men make hard times,” the saeculum lays out cultural ascent and decadence. The four seasons of the saeculum:
Spring = Post Crises = Good Times = Societal Unity and Hope
Summer = Awakening = Power Vacuums and/or Cultural Excitability = Art and Love
Fall = Post Awakening = Fragmentation and Uncertainty = Probing Wars
Winter = Crises = Major Wars, Financial and Cultural Breakdown
Neil Howe makes the case that in 2023, we are in the early stages of Winter. He gives examples of recent American historical winters: The Great Depression/WW2 era, The American Civil War and The American Revolution. 
But, what ties Niel Howe and Jason Lowry’s theories together? While listening to “The Free Speech Solution - Primal’s Miljan Braticevic” by Preston Pysch featuring Miljan Braticev, an idea clicked.What if the next Winter/Crisis is purely cyber? Preston spoke of banks, shareholders, social media and the control of free speech. Banks control companies by owning so many shares. With this power, they advocate for their opaque interests.
Social media companies are particularly concerning, as they function as our digital town square, where our speech should be free and uncontrolled by any singular entity. What if our next Winter/Crisis consists of hyperinflation, misinformation, and the complete breakdown of trust within our institutions? 
And, what if a decentralized social media network, in conjunction with a decentralized monetary network could subvert the centralizing tendency within Winter eras? What if decentralized communities could bind together rather than abstracting their morality into major wars? What if the federalizing tendency over the last hundred years reverses? What if Truth and Property Rights of the individual could prevent the bloodshed of our youth over a war between major governments over borders, power and wealth.
As government debts increase across the world, they’ll desperately need low real interest rates. Yet, as rates lower and governments print out of the hole they’ve dug, Bitcoin offers individuals with a life raft. How will society treat Bitcoiners? During the Russian revolution, landowners were labeled as “kulaks” and were sent to the Gulag. Will an angry populace care that Bitcoin solves their problem? Or will they blame us? 

 Throughout “The Changing World Order” by Ray Dalio, Dalio uses several metrics to measure a global power: competitiveness, economic output, education, military, financial center, innovation and technology, trade and reserve currency status. He illustrates the need for the United State’s dollar in global trade, yet shows the decline of America and China’s likely succession.
Interestingly, Dalio states, “when credit is created, buying power is created in exchange for a promise to pay back, so it is near-term stimulating and longer-term depressing. That creates cycles. This has led to growth in the form of buying power and eventually to many more promises to pay than can be delivered and broken-promise crises in the form of debt-default depressions and stock market crashes. That is when the bankers and capitalists are hanged both figuratively and literally, vast amounts of wealth and lives are wiped out, and vast amounts of fiat money are printed to try to relieve the crisis (Dalio, pg. 223).” He shows the dramatic performance of gold when debt assets are debased on page 235. 
	Yet, while Dalio assumes hard assets will outperform in our late stage debt cycle, he dismisses Bitcoin and predicts the rise of a digital renminbi in the video below.
	Bitcoin gives its users the power to freely transact without permission. What other historical examples can we see where a central authority lost its grip due to technology? In 1436 the printing press was invented. In 1517 Martin Luther disagreed with the central religious authority and nailed his 95 theses to a public board. Though dissidents had voiced their concerns previously, they had no technology to gain support. In conjunction with the printing press and Luther’s German Biblical translation, Protestant movements upheaved the Catholic Church from their monopoly. Bitcoin allows us to hold our money without permission. Similarly, Luther's Bible allowed Germans to interpret the scripture as they saw fit, decentralizing religious interpretation.
	Maybe Ray Dalio has underestimated the decentralized, trustless money. Maybe we’re not in a crusade like time, whereby Christians and Muslims fought for group based dominance. Maybe, we are in a grassroots period. This war is between the individual and the state. Maybe we will see the power of money return to the working class, instead of the renminbi simply taking the crown.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4VJOgN5Cquo&ab_channel=PrinciplesbyRayDalio

Disclaimer - In no way is this a religious argument, just an interesting parallel between power, information and technology.