Ep2: I speak with my good friend Greg Hahn, founder and Chief Investment Officer of Winthrop Capital Management.
Greg on #government mamagement of the #GFC: “We had to come to our own view of how the machine worked. Back then we assumed that the #bank #regulators were on top of it.”
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-generous-investor/id1765039441?i=1000672201156
I’m happy to share the launch of The Generous Investor podcast. I hope to share actionable wisdom from #investors #philanthropists and #nonprofits doing really great work. It won’t be the only topic, but I expect #Bitcoin will be a recurring topic.
For more: www.generousinvestor.com
The picture needs to have Macron in the middle gesturing to Biden to go to the right instead, where the other G7 dignitaries are waiting for a group photo.
Both Substack pieces are great; I haven’t read the paper yet.
Stablecoins seem like the best way to maintain the “Treasury Standard.” In time banks will have to join that party, especially if the market gets comfortable with something less than fully reserved stablecoins.
Banks would also argue that only they (as regulated entities) should be permitted to issue fractional stablecoins and if they succeed, there won’t be enough margin in fully reserved stablecoins for non-banks to compete.
Although it seems like fractionally reserving would also cap demand for Treasuries sooner or later. When that demand dries up, maintaining the reserve currency would necessitate some kind of dollar backing, à la your proposal at the BPI this spring.
In the end it all comes back to fiscal discipline, which is downstream from national character. We haven’t balanced a budget in over two decades and the public appetite for bread & circuses seems strong as ever today.
I hope I’m wrong.
There’s no crime in not understanding something. But by the time you reach middle age you should have a decent grasp of what you know and what you don’t. What a moron.
Large totalitarian regimes would overrun us. Believe me, I’m AnCap in my heart but our neighborhood suggests we need some stable entity to maintain our nuclear deterrence capabilities.
“If you seek perception with a strong voice, if you seek her as silver and search for her as treasure, then you will understand the fear of the Lord and find the knowledge of God.”
#Proverbs 2:3-5
A downgrade to neutral is generous. The legacy international remittances business is the most vulnerable industry to a bearer asset with instantaneous settlement. WU would be better off ramping telegrams back up. nostr:note134qvxqr3kjfg5gcwp9xme77ld4p9k3we33p4ydaaeegcs23k29tsu0ee8z
Bitcoin Atlantis sounds amazing. I’m not a developer but I really want to encourage all those working to preserve and strengthen Bitcoin: you’re actually restoring hope for millions (soon billions) of us. I just gave to @OpenSats for the first time. What can you do? nostr:note16u3lyvl8c6z8ufggc3u0gser6u22yax5vvwpcwaqtcg8kmrx3k8srureda
How devaluation starts:
April 18 will be the 25th anniversary of the current Swiss constitution’s adoption. With that ratification, the #franc became fully fiat.
Yesterday, 58.2% of Swiss voted to add a 13th monthly federal pension payment, while a second initiative to raise the retirement age and begin tying it to life expectancy failed, garnering only 25.3% of votes.
Unless the #Swiss either raise taxes or cut other spending, the supply of franc will have to rise. Budgets must always balance: if not in nominal terms, then in real terms.
On the week, that’s a net +30,056 BTC. At a very rough average price of $55,000 that’s $1.65B. If the average market cap for the week was $1.1T, the week’s inflows were ~0.15%. It’s not clear to me that we’ve started to see meaningful ETF inflows yet. I think the pump M-W was mainly supply: LT hodlers staying disciplined.
This is great stuff. Thank you!
Trading on technical indicators with equities can make sense but it shouldn’t translate readily to BTC. The key BTC theses should produce HODLers, not traders. I know from conversations that the 3-day, 25% run M-Th prompted trading responses.
He’s playing to his base and they don’t yet understand how the feds b*tch slap USD. It’s an icon of patriotism for them. So much education is still needed.
@Scott That’s a great observation. I can only offer my perspective, so for what it’s worth: while coopting, centralizing, and corrupting by those who have outsized influence are forces worth fighting, the government’s explicit power to coerce is a much bigger threat. In my sense - and in only my sense - many progressives seem to want to use government power to satisfy their passions for justice, and believe that having a simple majority of a voting populace on their side somehow absolves them of the moral evil of coercion. However, I see coercion as the fundamentally dehumanizing social force.
Private charity is alive and well; I want to affirm my progressive friends’ senses of justice and work with them where I can to bring about better outcomes for people, but without resorting to control.
Yeah, I screwed up and somehow didn’t reply to the thread but created a new note. Anyway it was your repost of Trey Walsh’s note. FWIW, I think Trey makes an important point about being consistent. My counter went to threat asymmetry: while Wall Street has NGU and ETF concentration as attack vectors, Warren and Trudeau have bank accounts and prisons.
We’re all on team orange. 👊🏻
Watch this ASAP and for the love of all things holy, stop buying shit made in communist countries. Western demand for cheap goods has helped fund the dehumanization of millions.
https://www.beyondutopiadoc.com
There are two political choices:
1) the sovereign individual
2) might makes right
Individuals can choose to subject themselves to groups and moral codes.
The #uniparty chooses 2.
The cumulative scale is on the righthand side whereas weekly remittances is left. 2011 looks to be the base year of the graph, so zero on the cumulative.
I sent this to a friend I’ve been trying to orange pill since the lows following the FTX debacle. He was lamenting not buying when I told him about BTC at $17k in late November 2022.
“Don’t sweat missing $17k. There is a monetary (inflation) premium baked into the prices of gold, stocks, and real estate which is distinct from their intrinsic values. In time Bitcoin can capture that inflation premium. And that premium is apart from any value associated with its current and future utility as a medium of exchange.
Let’s say the inflation premium is ~$50T globally. For context, the global value of all debt is ~$400T. Bitcoin’s current market capitalization is $840B. That suggests 59x upside on the inflation premium alone, or $2.5M per BTC. I’m assuming that the timeframe to realize this price is 15-20 years, but the $2.5M is in today’s $US, not inflated future dollars.
Stocks and real estate won’t crash as a result, but their valuations will be constrained to the cash flows from their businesses & rents, respectively. Gold’s intrinsic value is consumer, industrial, and apocalyptic but it’s much more purely priced as an inflation hedge than either stocks or real estate.”
I obey the state’s laws because I risk losing things I value if I didn’t. In those cases when my moral obligations match with their laws, it’s purely coincidental.
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