I sent this to a friend I’ve been trying to orange pill since the lows following the FTX debacle. He was lamenting not buying when I told him about BTC at $17k in late November 2022.

“Don’t sweat missing $17k. There is a monetary (inflation) premium baked into the prices of gold, stocks, and real estate which is distinct from their intrinsic values. In time Bitcoin can capture that inflation premium. And that premium is apart from any value associated with its current and future utility as a medium of exchange.

Let’s say the inflation premium is ~$50T globally.  For context, the global value of all debt is ~$400T. Bitcoin’s current market capitalization is $840B. That suggests 59x upside on the inflation premium alone, or $2.5M per BTC. I’m assuming that the timeframe to realize this price is 15-20 years, but the $2.5M is in today’s $US, not inflated future dollars.

Stocks and real estate won’t crash as a result, but their valuations will be constrained to the cash flows from their businesses & rents, respectively. Gold’s intrinsic value is consumer, industrial, and apocalyptic but it’s much more purely priced as an inflation hedge than either stocks or real estate.”