Thank you for this! I have had these same thoughts. I know people who act like prediction markets are some kind of collective super intelligence and I’m like, bro, lots of ways to manipulate them or for them to be distorted (participation bias, down bad cope, people in the jurisdiction in question generally being restricted form most only prediction markets etc etc)
And if the manipulation works then you get a good return on the capital invested too.
It’s certainly true that it can be manipulated and I agree that it could be a good use of campaign money (assuming it’s possible for this money to be funneled into prediction markets) but traditional polls are no better indicators. The tools to ensure the integrity of the US elections have been long gone.
While I do think the polling is distorted as well, often for similar reason, I do think the integrity of our elections is sound. Our system is doing what it’s supposed to do, make the maximal number of people unhappy at the alter to gridlock and the maintenance of the status quo unless change is PAINFULLY, ABSOLUTELY and UNDENIABLY necessary.
I strongly disagree on the US having sound integrity for its elections.
It’s probably one of the worst among Western democracies.
The widespread use of voting machines running opaque proprietary algorithms is absolutely contrary to the principle of vote integrity. Exit polls were recently suppressed because they were being used to prove the fraud from the electronic counting of the vote.
The lack of integrity of the voter rolls data which when combined with the recent generalization of mail-in voting and/or the possibility in many states to vote without presenting an ID, is another way to manipulate the outcome of the elections.
US elections are nothing but secured. In the vast majority of Western democracies:
- Voting machines are not allowed
- Voting by mail is not allowed
- Identity verification is required
And this is just on the integrity of the voting process. The elections are rigged in many more ways including through the polls, the media, the two party system and so on.
#ElectionIntegrity #USPolitics #USPol #Elections2024
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