TL;DR
Examining energy use data in real UK homes shows that people in the least-efficient homes use 51% less than models expected and people in the most-efficient homes use 54% more.

https://ars.els-cdn.com/content/image/1-s2.0-S0378778823002542-ga1.jpg
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378778823002542