Oddbean new post about | logout
 I don’t think this cycle will behave like the previous.  Something tells me this is the final shakeout..  it doesn’t happen in October in November then I’ll happen in March. 🤷‍♂️ 
 I don't think so because it is the same thing happening again except we are starting from a higher platform than past cycles.  I think this is the market maturing.   You are going to get lower and lower volatility so less painful falls and less euphoric highs.  It is really telling to look at BTC on loglog.  It is the first ever loglog asset over the long term.  You have exponential reduction I. Supply issuance.   Exponential growth of the hash rate.  Exponential growth of users, of money coming in.  You have the same tightening of supply x number of months after the halvening.   You have dips.  Btc goes from weak to strong hands that will never sell.  You have the price go up and that sucks the next wave in.  

I think it repeats until all the sudden you hit the early majority of adoption and price starts going up faster than makes sense on loglog.  

Gold is worth 14 trillion.   Any industry goes digital it is an easy 10x.  Once that becomes obvious to the hivemind you will have to toss out the old charts because it's going to be a race to see how can dump fiat the fastest and hardest for 30 or 40 years.  Countries' fiat imploding faster and fast.  Them trying to make  their fiat last a little longer to buy more btc with it.

Yeah log log is good chart till it ain't because it breaks to the upside. https://image.nostr.build/71db1a5b6cf9b9b44ea2f7fae61e2e3a84dc93b75e3167fa8072044287cd26fb.jpg 
 Your thought process is not flawed and I see the supply shock coming sooooon.  However, I’ve seen crazy things and I do appreciate your write up. I agree something will happen this fall. I just don’t know what the buying pressure is tremendous.  I will come back and revisit this post and I hope you’re right.  However, you and I will continue stacking.🔥