Oddbean new post about login | logout Brexit was a predictor for Trump’s win. Today’s Labour win is really a swing from Conservatives to Reform. This is a nightmare for the Democrats. The Reform Party is essentially the same as the Trump faction of the Republican Party. This would predict a Trump landslide in November.
I see this as a rebuke of the Torys - lowest number of seats in 200 years but it doesn't appear to be an endorsement for Reform. Labour (centre left) represents more social programs, whereas Farage's Reform UK campaigned on Nationalism, more like Trump's message. I agree, Brexit set the table for Trump's surprising win in 2016, the common thread in this is again Farage. To me it looks like Britain is bucking the trend that France set. Who knows anymore? I think that was the objective of the past 8 years or so, confuse, incite, distract.
Spot on. Labour did not get a higher vote share, the Conservative party was split in two after a disasterous time in power.
I keep seeing Labour supporters thrilled, i mean it’s great they won, but the Americans who say this means the democrats will win don’t seem to be paying attention to what really happened. This was the case of a center-right party messing up so much that their vote split and they were punished.
